Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
‘Desert Warrior’ Starring Anthony Mackie Earns Sub‑$600K U.S. Opening, Marking Major Box‑Office Flop
Anthony Mackie's action epic Desert Warrior opened on 1,010 U.S. screens and earned only $596,000 in its first weekend, a stark underperformance for a film backed by Saudi media giant MBC Group and acquired by Vertical. The flop highlights the difficulty of translating international production budgets into domestic box‑office success.
Vietnam's New Business Registrations Jump 32.8%, Capital Inflows Near $30bn
Vietnam logged 77,800 newly registered enterprises in the January‑April 2026 period, a 32.8% increase year‑on‑year, with total registered capital of nearly $30 billion. The surge reflects stronger investor confidence and a policy push to deepen the private sector.
Philippines' National Government Borrowings Drop 39.4% in March to $2.1 Billion
The Philippines' Bureau of the Treasury said gross national government borrowings fell 39.4% in March to P116.66 billion ($2.1 bn), with domestic debt plunging 70.4% to P46.76 billion. The decline reflects a front‑loading strategy, higher amortizations and external shocks from the Middle East...
CNBC's The China Connection Newsletter: China Is Rewiring the Silicon Valley Model — Starting in Hong Kong
China’s tech financing is rapidly shifting to Hong Kong, where more than 400 firms are queuing for IPOs—the largest surge in 35 years. Confidential listing rules and easing regulations have spurred a pipeline that could raise about $60 billion in 2026, nearly...
The US Blockade of Hormuz: Who Holds the Advantage?
The United States entered its third week of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing 38 Iranian‑linked vessels to divert and boarding several ships in the Indian Ocean. Iran has responded by reviving a selective‑closure policy and moving...
How US Tech Hegemony Is Locking Out the Global South
The United States is leveraging patents, export bans and alliance‑driven standards to cement a monopoly over emerging technologies such as 6G, creating a closed‑loop ecosystem that excludes non‑aligned nations. This strategy has choked the Global South, from African farmers forced...
Infrastructure Fund Timely
President William Ruto announced Kenya’s National Infrastructure Fund to cut reliance on borrowing and channel domestic capital into development. The country faces a $12 billion annual infrastructure need through 2040, leaving a $2.1 billion yearly financing gap. The fund is designed to...
IMF Says Worst-Case Global Economy Warning Is Now the Working Assumption - Oil Shock Hit
The International Monetary Fund has dropped its mild slowdown baseline and moved to an adverse scenario, warning that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep oil at $125 a barrel through 2027. Georgieva said this price path would generate a...
Middle East War Triggers 24% Energy Price Surge, Sparking Vietnam Inflation and World Bank Alarm
The war in the Middle East has pushed global energy prices up 24% this year, the steepest rise since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The surge is feeding higher transport costs in Vietnam, accelerating its inflation, while the World Bank...
Gulf Diplomatic Proposals Stabilize Oil, Boost Asian Stocks by 3% on May 4
Asian equity markets rose roughly 3% on May 4 after Gulf diplomatic proposals eased oil‑price volatility. Brent crude steadied at $108.36 per barrel, and MSCI's broadest Asia‑Pacific index outperformed, led by a 4.6% jump in South Korean tech shares.
Southeast Asia VC Funding Stalls in Q1 2026 as AI Deals Skew Market
Southeast Asia’s venture capital market raised $2.81 bn across 98 equity deals in Q1 2026, the lowest quarterly count in eight years. A $2 bn Series C for Singapore data‑centre operator DayOne absorbed more than 70% of that capital, leaving the broader ecosystem...
How Chinese Carmaker Geely Put Roots in the U.S.
Chinese automaker Zhejiang Geely Holding Group leverages its stakes in Volvo, Polestar and Lotus to gain U.S. dealer networks and potential factory capacity. The under‑utilized Volvo plant in South Carolina, capable of 150,000 units, could host Chinese‑branded models such as...
Japan Touts ‘Peace of Mind’ Development in Africa
Japan’s foreign minister Motegi outlined a new development model for Africa that blends long‑term peace, societal growth and strategic trade under a revised Free and Open Indo‑Pacific (FOIP) policy. Tokyo remains the largest official development assistance (ODA) donor in sub‑Saharan...
The Global Week Ahead
The week ahead is dominated by high‑level geopolitics and market‑moving data. ASEAN leaders convene in Cebu to grapple with soaring oil prices and regional security, while the European Political Community gathers in Armenia, representing roughly a quarter of global GDP....
US Reopens Hormuz, Concedes Blockade Failed to Pressure Iran
The push to re-open the Strait of Hormuz today, with two US warship crossing it and two US-flagged merchant vessels, signals the White House realises it can not keep waiting for the blockade to force Iran into the negotiation table. Effectively,...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Keeps USD/Manat Fixed at 1.7 Manat
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced on May 4 that the official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar remained at 1.7 manat. The rates for the euro, Turkish lira and Russian ruble were also published, showing no deviation from the...
Trump's 'Project Freedom' Aims to Reopen Hormuz, Oil Prices Remain Flat
President Donald Trump unveiled 'Project Freedom', a plan to shepherd commercial vessels out of the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement triggered a short‑lived dip in oil prices, but Brent and WTI settled unchanged as markets...
Drone or Missile Strikes Reported in the UAE
Iran launched four loitering munitions toward the UAE, three were intercepted over territorial waters and one fell into the sea, prompting explosions in Dubai, Jebel Ali and Fujairah. A cargo vessel 36 nm north of Dubai suffered an engine‑room fire of unknown...
Sri Lanka: FDI Is on the Rise
Sri Lanka’s Board of Investment reported a 72% jump in 2025 foreign direct investment, topping $1.06 billion for the first time. Greenfield projects surged, accounting for 13% of total FDI with 24 new ventures worth $134 million. The inflow is led by...
The Consensus on China’s Economy Is Strong—And Wrong
Arvind Subramanian argues that the prevailing view of China’s economy— that it sacrifices domestic consumers for export‑driven growth— is fundamentally flawed. He notes that Chinese households have seen living‑standard gains faster than any other nation in recorded history. While China’s...
Mercosur FTA Enters Force Eight Months Before the EUDR Roll Out
The EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement entered provisional force after more than two decades of talks, allowing Brazilian soy, beef, coffee, cocoa and forest products to flow into Europe. This activation occurs eight months before the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) takes effect...
What Orban’s 16-Year China Experiment Reveals About Europe
Viktor Orban’s defeat in the 2026 election ends a 16‑year China experiment that left Hungary as the EU’s top recipient of Chinese investment – about $3.4 bn in 2024, or 31 % of all Chinese FDI in Europe. The “Eastern Opening” created a...
Chinese Electric Vehicle Exports Rise Amid the Oil Crisis, Posing a Dilemma for Importing Countries
Chinese electric‑vehicle exports surged to record levels in 2025 and continued rising through March 2026, driven by high oil prices from the Iran war. Canada has approved the entry of 49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6.1% tariff, while Chinese automakers...
IKEA China CEO Pontus Erntell Calls China a Strategic Growth Market After Small-Format Store Launch
IKEA China CEO Pontus Erntell announced the opening of a 1,500‑square‑meter small‑format store in eastern Beijing, calling China a "very exciting" and strategic market across retail, value‑chain and development dimensions. The launch signals IKEA’s pivot to precise market penetration and...
IMF Warns Angola It Could Reach Debt Ceiling
The International Monetary Fund warned that Angola’s public debt will reach its legal ceiling within the next few years. The IMF advises the government to channel an anticipated windfall from oil prices above $100 a barrel into debt reduction and...
Nigeria's Dollar GDP Jumps 22% to $307 Bn in 2025 on Strong Output and Firmer Naira
Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated GDP expanded 22% in 2025 to roughly $307 bn, propelled by an 18.4% rise in nominal output and a 3% appreciation of the naira. The surge places the country above the $300 bn threshold and makes it the biggest contributor...
KakaoBank Targets 30 Million Users and $68 B Deposits with AI‑Driven Global Push
South Korea’s KakaoBank announced a plan to reach 30 million customers and $68 billion in total deposits by next year, betting on AI‑powered services and new markets in Indonesia, Thailand and Mongolia. The strategy follows a 7% rise in operating profit and...
US Tech Can Use China as ‘Listening Post’ for Global Edge, Washington Think Tank Explains
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) released a report urging U.S. technology companies to remain active in China despite political pressure. It cites 1,950 American firms with Chinese affiliates in 2023, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, and argues...
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Economic Activity in India
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index for India, built from newspaper mentions of policy‑related risk, shows a clear negative relationship with key macro variables. Higher EPU values coincide with slower growth in private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, and overall...
Australia and Japan Expand Ties with Focus on Economic Security
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged on May 4, 2026 to deepen cooperation on economic security. The bilateral agenda centers on building resilient supply chains for energy, critical minerals, food and manufactured goods. Both governments cited...
Commission Blocks EU Funding for Huawei Solar Tech
The European Commission announced it will block EU funding for solar‑panel inverters supplied by high‑risk vendors such as China’s Huawei. Guidance will restrict the use of EU money on projects that rely on these components, though existing projects can apply...
UK Seeks Access to EU’s €5B Tech Scale-Up Fund
The European Union and the United Kingdom will begin negotiations to let Britain tap a new €5 billion ($5.4 billion) tech‑scale‑up fund. The fund, part of Horizon Europe, is designed for late‑stage equity investments that exceed the €30 million cap of earlier programs....
The Geopolitical Battle Over Monetary Infrastructure
The United States has publicly warned Brazil over its instant‑payment system Pix, viewing the platform as a challenge to traditional monetary sovereignty. The article argues that control of payment rails—ranging from retail‑level instant transfers to wholesale central‑bank digital currencies—has become...
China Nears AI Lead as US Talent Flow Slows
The gap in AI leadership is closing faster than expected. A Stanford report suggests China has nearly caught up, while the flow of top talent into the U.S. is slowing significantly. The shift is structural. In AI, talent and geography are becoming...
China’s Unprecedented Defiance of U.S. Sanctions Triggers Showdown
China has ordered its firms to ignore U.S. sanctions on private refiners tied to Iran’s oil trade, marking an unprecedented defiant stance ahead of the Trump‑Xi summit. The directive specifically targets companies like Hengli Petrochemical’s Dalian refinery, which was sanctioned...
US-China Trade
Presidents Trump and Xi meet next week in Beijing. In preparation for that meeting, I visited the largest container port in North America, to get a status update on US exports to China. I also learned about the impact of...
China's Banks Surge Net Dollar Holdings, Data Shows
Indeed. China's own banking data shows a big jump in its net dollar holdings in the last few quarters. And that data excludes the dollar assets of the policy banks and China's various sovereign funds https://t.co/DSd2RXCiOA
Kallas: US Troop Withdrawal ‘Comes as a Surprise’
EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas said the United States' decision to pull roughly 5,000 troops from Germany caught European leaders off guard. The announcement was made on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia. President Donald...
China Should Lead Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Not Follow
Shouldn't China be leading, rather than following, when it comes to reopening the Strait of Hormuz? They have the most to gain. https://t.co/no60ONPKDg
US Blockade Cuts Iranian Rial 20% in Three Weeks
Since the start of the US blockade on April 13, the Iranian Rial is down 20 percent against the Dollar. We're only three weeks into the blockade and this is the most visible sign it's already meaningfully disrupting Iran's economy....
Swiss Watchmakers Eye India, Targeting Double Sales as Duties Drop
Swiss luxury watchmakers are accelerating expansion in India, with TAG Heuer opening its first franchise boutique near New Delhi and pledging to double its Indian business within five years. The push follows a trade deal that cut import duties on...
Iran Risks Retaliation by Targeting UAE Oil Infrastructure
Quite the gamble from the Iranian side to attack an American ally. Imagine it is a strategic evaluation to attack the UAE's oil infrastructure aimed at circumventing Iran's efforts to curb oil flows. High risk in retaliation suggests they can't...
U.S.-China Trade Shifts: ASEAN Rise, Tariffs Reshape Supply Chains
NY Fed/Liberty Street Economics: In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? Trade Asean shifts. Tariffs. Finished goods. Upstream supply chain. What is real? Temporary? Or not?
Oil Jumps by 5% After Report of US Warship Being Hit by Missiles
Oil prices surged about 5% on Monday after Iran’s Fars news agency reported that a U.S. warship was hit by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures climbed to $113.69 a barrel and WTI to $107.04, reversing Friday’s losses....
Dubai's Economy Crumbles as War Impact Surfaces
All of those 'Dubai is a paradise unaffected by the war' tweets have disappeared, as its economy is decimated.
Trump’s Gulf Blockade Turns Allies Into Adversaries
My take on Pres. Trump turning FRIENDS in the Gulf into ENEMIES with @MarioNawfal: "With the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council can no longer export their oil. As a result, the US blockade is...
Guyana Tells World Court Venezuela's Claim on Oil-Rich Esequibo Region Poses Existential Threat
Guyana has asked the International Court of Justice to rule that Venezuela’s claim to the oil‑rich Esequibo region is illegitimate. The dispute covers a 160,000‑square‑kilometre area, including offshore blocks where recent discoveries have attracted global investors. Guyana’s foreign minister warned...
India Accelerates Trade Liberalization with New FTAs and Tariff Cuts
"India this week signed the latest in what’s been a run of rapid-fire free trade agreements.... India also has unilaterally cut tariffs on some key inputs and rolled back QCOs in sectors including steel, textiles and chemicals." https://t.co/AVxgDPYywi https://t.co/oZpPAr08RK
Brazil's Slower Growth Isn’t Due to Market Freedom
Brazil is a large emerging-market country. It should be growing more rapidly than the US. It’s not because it’s less free market than the US. https://t.co/I9aEhKJJE5
Ceasefire Risk Drives Oil Surge, Boosts Dollar
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher: The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran...