Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid MiddleâEast Tensions
Taiwanâs economy minister said a major LNGâproducing country has pledged to meet the islandâs naturalâgas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2âŻmillion tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwanâs import mix as the Iran war threatens MiddleâEast supplies.
Polandâs economy broke the $1âŻtrillion GDP threshold, placing it among the worldâs 20 largest economies, and posted a 3.6% growth rate in 2025 â the fastest among EU members in Q4. The surge follows a historic shift that began with 1990âs shockâtherapy reforms, which dismantled subsidies, opened trade, and liberalized the zloty. Finance Minister Andrzej DomaĆski now argues the strong performance negates any immediate need to adopt the euro. The rapid expansion marks a dramatic reversal from the countryâs 1980s economic collapse.
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
From GS on Flows (BBG): - Biggest sell imbalance since 2022 (Friday) - Stresses no longer âignoredâ - âcan start talking at what innings weâre in because the game has finally startedâ - Hedging is so expensive that to break even, would need indexes...
Fabio Panetta highlighted the looming youth employment crisis, noting that 1.2âŻbillion young people will join the labour force in developing nations over the next decade, with Africa accounting for a quarter of the global youth population by 2050. He warned...
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. Theyâre evil. Not idiots.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict is expected to ripple through the global economy, pressuring South Africaâs fuel costs, inflation and exchange rates. Business Leadership South Africaâs CEO Busi Mavuso warns that higher diesel prices will strain the mining...
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market đŠđȘ â ïž Adnoc has âmade temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gasâ Theyâre working with customers to fulfill commitments âwherever possibleâ https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Indiaâs multialignment strategy is under strain as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran triggered a domestic LPG shortage, exposing the countryâs energy fragility. Simultaneously, New Delhiâs decision to reopen critical sectors to Chinese foreign direct investment deepens its reliance on a...
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC) raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to over â±200âŻbillion, up from roughly â±190âŻbillion in 2025, driven primarily by largeâscale renewableâenergy projects such as Meralcoâs SP New Energy Corp and the Terra Solar farm, slated to...
Senator Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito urged the Philippine government on March 23 to create an interâagency task force that would monitor and mitigate the economic and energy fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict. He cited Senate Resolution No.âŻ43, which...
The United States and China are pursuing opposite AI strategies: the U.S. relies on marketâdriven, fragmented innovation while China embeds AI into coordinated, stateâled systems. American firms chase autonomous models and rapid scaling, whereas Beijing focuses on using intelligence to...
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the worldâs major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Nina Schick argues the IranâUS conflict marks the first AIâdriven war, exposing how massive compute and electricity needs are now strategic assets. She links the fighting to the broader USâChina rivalry, noting that energy constraints directly affect AI scaling and...
Moodyâs projects AsiaâPacific GDP growth slowing to 4âŻ% in 2026 and 3.6âŻ% in 2027, down from 4.3âŻ% in 2025. The downgrade reflects surging commodity prices from the MiddleâEast conflict and lingering U.S. tariff uncertainty. Export performance remains resilient, driven by...
International Energy Agency chief FatihâŻBirol warned that the world is heading toward a severe energy crisis as at least 40 oil and gas assets in West Asia have been severely damaged. He described the situation as a combination of two...
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
Chinaâs labor share fell from 21% in 1987 to 15% in 2023, leaving workers with a shrinking slice of economic output. Despite dramatic poverty reduction, wages in manufacturing now rank near the bottom of a 87âcountry survey, and the minimum...
[MUST READ] Iranâs Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Iran is negotiating yuanâpriced oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf exporters have seen a 97% output collapse. The move, coupled with rising oil prices and $1âŻtrillion reparations demands, is pressuring the petrodollar system and prompting $1.1âŻbillion outflows...
Nigeriaâs Foreign Minister Yusuf MaitamaâŻTuggar urged African and Latin American leaders to deepen cooperation across technology, agriculture, energy and culture at the CELACâAfrica High-Level Forum in BogotĂĄ, positioning Nigeria as a catalyst for a new SouthâSouth trade and investment framework.
ASEAN is preparing for its 60th anniversary in 2027 by launching reforms that target tighter economic integration, greener energy cooperation and more flexible decisionâmaking. IntraâASEAN trade has risen to $822âŻbn in 2024, but the blocâs consensusâbased model is under pressure...
The USâIran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
Around 40 countries, including India and Turkey, have lodged objections to a Chinaâled Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) proposal at the WTO ministerial meeting. Proponents aim to adopt the framework as a plurilateral agreement at the MC14 in Cameroon, arguing...
The Iranârelated war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone SubâSaharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6âŻbillion of fresh issuanceâhalf of last yearâs pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and...
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
Amazon is treating India as a longâterm growth market, expanding its zeroâreferralâfee program to cover roughly 125 million products. The company announced an additional $35âŻbillion investment in India by 2030, on top of the $40âŻbillion already spent. A new air...
â ïž Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. Itâs the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: âą Oil spikes âą Inflation rebounds âą Risk...
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and marketsâa discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42âŻtrillion foreignâexchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh travelled to Moscow to sign a suite of energy agreements, including oilâandâgas cooperation and a nuclear power plant partnership, as Hanoi seeks to bolster fuel reserves. The deal covers trade, investment, exploration, extraction and...
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew a large sum from Indian equities amid the escalating West Asia war, pressuring the rupee and dampening emergingâmarket risk appetite. The turmoil also forced airlines to cut West Asia flights and highlighted India's reliance on imported...
Bloombergâs Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interestârate expectations, unsettling the onceâpopular strategy of investing in emergingâmarket localâcurrency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates...
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
African banking giants from Nigeria and South Africa are accelerating acquisitions and greenfield launches in East Africa, drawn by Kenyaâs role as a regional financial hub and the tradeâfinance potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Central Bank...
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, itâs still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) thatâs a ~$2.5...
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHUâS WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
EUâIran trade collapsed to âŹ3.72âŻbillion in 2025, the lowest level in two decades, as renewed sanctions tightened economic ties. Germany remains the dominant EU partner, accounting for 31.8% of the remaining trade, followed by Italy and the Netherlands, together representing...
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
At what point does this escalation by Trump-Netanyahu actually prompt Iran to mine the Straight of Hormuz... with these ships on it?! Then this humanitarian crisis goes from lock-down to existential pretty quickly.
The escalation of the USâIsrael conflict with Iran has pushed global equity markets down more than 5%, dragging Australian superannuation returns lower. Median growthâoption super funds fell about 3% in March, leaving the financialâyear return at roughly 3.3%, while balanced...
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
KHARG ISLAND â a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iranâs entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. đ§”1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ: https://t.co/ZOYtq3KESE https://t.co/xtLBqPShB6
Indiaâs rapid economic rise is now threatened by the U.S.âIsraeli war on Iran, which jeopardizes the Gulfâs oil and gas supplies that account for 40âŻ% of its oil and 80âŻ% of its gas imports. Disruptions to export routes and a...
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demandâespecially for servicesâby boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
Iranâs Kharg Island as seen **today** by the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 satellite. Iran is loading multiple tankers, exporting oil and making $$$ â now, with the help of the White House. The idea that Trump admin is using Iranian oil barrels...
But it is more accurate -- Before the latest oil shock the really big surpluses were China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (more an investment income dollar but ... )
Global merchandise trade will slow less this year than the WTO predicted, but risks a sharper downturn if prolonged Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated https://t.co/nhU9axrKFm via @b_muzz https://t.co/Vo7S63a3JN
Iran risk is still not priced in. And neither is Trump-Netanyahuâs potentially diabolical reaction: US-Israel nuclear war
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their countryâs greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
