Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
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De-Dollarization: What Is It, and Is It Happening?
De‑dollarization describes the gradual reduction of the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. The IMF reports the dollar’s share of allocated reserves fell to about 57% in Q4 2025, down from over 70% in 2001. China’s renminbi, gold and a handful of smaller currencies are gaining modest traction, while BRICS nations are testing local‑currency trade. Despite these moves, the dollar remains the chief medium for international business and sovereign debt.
‘Reset’ or ‘Calculated Stabilisation’? Why Ties Between China and the Philippines Appear to Be Warming
After four years of friction, Manila and Beijing are moving toward a tentative thaw, but analysts describe it as a calculated stabilisation rather than a full reset. The shift is driven by energy‑supply shocks, the Philippines’ ASEAN chairmanship, and the...
As Economic Despair Mounts, Russian Official Admits the Country Has Had Enough of Putin’s War on Ukraine. ‘We Can’t Even...
Russia’s economy contracted in the first two months of 2026, prompting Vladimir Putin to publicly acknowledge the downturn. Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged key oil‑export hubs and forced a scaled‑back Victory Day parade, underscoring mounting military setbacks. Domestic discontent is...
Mideast Peace Efforts in Focus as Trading Resumes: Markets Wrap
Investors are weighing the latest Middle‑East truce proposals as the market resumes trading after a week of heightened tension. President Trump announced the U.S. will begin guiding non‑combatant vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz and cited "very positive" talks...
Nigeria’s Mining Reforms Attract $2 Bn Investment and Spur ₦68.1 Bn Revenue Surge
Minister Dele Alake announced that Nigeria’s revamped mining framework has already drawn more than $2 bn in processing and extraction projects and delivered ₦68.1 bn (about $148 m) in revenue for 2025. The reforms shift the sector from raw‑export to value‑added industrialisation under...
Fitch Stress Test Sees No Turkish Bank Failure Even if Iran Conflict Drives Lira to USD/75
Fitch Ratings’ stress test shows that Turkish banks can absorb a severe shock from a prolonged Iran conflict, even if the lira slides to 75 per dollar and non‑performing loans rise to 7.5% by end‑2026. In the worst‑case scenario only...
India Forecasts Six‑Fold Data‑Center Expansion to 10.5 GW by FY31, Triggering $60 Billion Capex
Morgan Stanley projects India's data‑center capacity will rise nearly six‑fold to 10.5 GW by FY31, driven by AI workloads and data‑localisation rules. The surge will demand about $60 bn in capital spending, including $20 bn for power and renewable upgrades, reshaping the country's...
Dangote Refinery Starts Direct Jet Fuel Deliveries to Ethiopian Airlines, Boosting African Supply
Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun direct jet‑fuel deliveries to Ethiopian Airlines, marking its first airline‑specific export. The move comes as the refinery runs at full capacity, leveraging surplus output to meet rising demand across Africa and Europe.
West Asia Conflict Threatens India’s 4.3% Fiscal Deficit Goal as Oil and Fertiliser Prices Surge
India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran warned that soaring oil and fertiliser prices from the West Asia crisis could widen the current‑account deficit to over 2% of GDP, jeopardising the government’s 4.3% fiscal‑deficit target for FY27. The warning comes...
NEPSE Slides 1.8% as Profit‑booking and Political Risk Erase $615 Million in Wealth
The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) closed at 2,738.72 points, down 1.79% over a four‑day week, erasing roughly $615 million in investor wealth. The slide was driven by profit‑booking and heightened political uncertainty after recent high‑profile arrests.
India and Tanzania Review Expanding Trade and Digital Cooperation at Joint Trade Committee Meeting
India and Tanzania held the fifth Joint Trade Committee meeting in Dar es Salaam, reviewing progress since 2017 and outlining deeper cooperation across digital infrastructure, health, energy and agriculture. Bilateral trade grew to $9.02 bn in 2025‑26, up from $8.64 bn the...
Atiku Cautions Tinubu Against Oil Windfall Misuse, Reserve Depletion
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar warned President Bola Tinubu that Nigeria’s recent oil windfall – roughly $11 billion – is being squandered while external reserves fell by about $1.57 billion in a single month. He argued that the Central Bank’s foreign‑exchange interventions...
From Research to Action: Critical Minerals in the Mid-Transition
The AFD Group, under the French G7 presidency, is convening a high‑level virtual conference on May 6, 2026 to address the growing uncertainties surrounding critical minerals that power the energy transition. Participants will include government officials, financiers, industry leaders, and researchers from...
The Truth Behind China's Zero Tariff Regime for Africa: What It Means for Future Trade
On May 1, 2026 China will roll out a zero‑tariff regime for all 53 African nations that have diplomatic ties. While the move appears to deepen South‑South trade, 94.5% of African exports to China already enjoy duty‑free status, leaving only...
‘No Margin for Error’ Sparks Rush for Hedges in Emerging Bonds
Emerging‑market bond prices have rallied for a 12th month, but investors are growing uneasy as the Iran‑related conflict drags on. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is urging clients to hedge with a credit‑default swap index, while Fidelity International and Frontier Road...
Caught in the Crosswinds: India’s Energy and Diplomacy in a Fractured Middle East
The ongoing Middle East war threatens India’s energy security because a large share of its oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, 38% of India’s foreign‑exchange earnings come from Gulf‑based workers, making remittance flows vulnerable to...
Japan Commits $10 Billion to Boost Vietnam Energy and Critical Mineral Partnership
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a $10 billion Power Asia Initiative to secure oil supplies and critical minerals for Vietnam, while pledging broader economic‑security cooperation. The move comes as Japan seeks to diversify away from China and Vietnam eyes stable...
US Sanctions 5 Chinese Refiners, China Issues Statement to Ignore Trump
The U.S. Treasury placed a Hengli Petrochemical unit and 40 shipping firms on its Specially Designated Nationals list, targeting five private Chinese refiners accused of moving Iranian oil. These "teapot" refiners use yuan‑denominated payments and have limited overseas exposure, allowing...
Markets with Bertie: Why Are the Foreigners Flitting Off ?
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) withdrew roughly $20 bn from Indian equities in the first four months of 2024, a figure mirrored—and even exceeded—in Korea where outflows approached $40 bn. The popular narrative that capital is fleeing India because it lacks listed AI...
Africa’s Aviation Capacity Jumps 13.7% as Middle East Turmoil Reroutes Global Traffic
IATA data released this week shows Africa’s total aviation capacity grew 13.7% in 2026, with Eastern Africa posting a 24.3% surge. The jump comes as airlines reroute around the Middle‑East crisis, positioning Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Ghana and Nigeria as the...
Middle East Conflict Spurs Surge in Sovereign Bond Yields, IMF Warns of Crisis Risk
The International Monetary Fund warned that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could ignite a global financial crisis, sending yields on G7 sovereign bonds higher. The warning comes as oil prices have risen 66% since recent attacks, and...
German Foreign Minister Wadephul, in Call with Iranian Counterpart, Demands Hormuz Reopening
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear weapons program during a call with Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. He framed the demand as consistent with the United States, which also seeks...
OPEC Members Increase Oil Production Quota by 188,000 Bpd, No Word on UAE's Withdrawal Amid War in West Asia
Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC members announced a 188,000 barrel‑per‑day increase to the June production quota, effectively filling the gap left by the United Arab Emirates’ sudden withdrawal from the cartel. The boost mirrors similar adjustments made in...
Poland’s President Plans Constitution Rewrite
Poland’s nationalist President Karol Nawrocki appointed a council on Constitution Day to draft a new constitution, selecting members largely tied to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. The proposal faces steep legislative hurdles, requiring two‑thirds approval in the Sejm...
April 2026 Sees $37 B Net Outflows From Chinese Stock‑Linked ETFs, Telecom and Satellite Themes Gain
Chinese equity ETFs lost about ¥2.64 trillion ($37 bn) in April, driven by broad withdrawals from wide‑index funds and sector themes. Telecom and satellite ETFs attracted net inflows, contrasting sharply with chip and AI funds that saw sizable outflows, highlighting a sector...
Pakistan’s Inflation Soars Above 11% as Oil Shock Triggers Stock Market Crash
Topline Securities warned that soaring global oil prices tied to the Middle East war will push Pakistan’s inflation above 11% and force the State Bank to tighten rates. The surge in energy costs has already driven a 15% plunge in...
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Slashing 25% of Global Oil Flow
Iran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 25% of global oil imports, sending crude prices to four‑year highs. The move pits Tehran’s resilient oil‑export strategy against a U.S.-led blockade, while energy firms scramble to profit from...
IRGC Just Outdid Khamenei? Forces Kuwait to Halt All Crude Exports for the First Time in 35 Years?
On April 2026, Kuwait ceased all crude oil shipments, marking the first full export halt since the Gulf War. TankerTrackers confirmed zero outbound cargo, attributing the stoppage to heightened security risks in the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions....
Will the Iran War Amplify the ‘Second China Shock’?
The article examines whether the escalating conflict in Iran could intensify the so‑called “second China shock,” a wave of supply‑chain disruption and economic decoupling that began as China’s growth slowed. It outlines how war‑related oil price spikes, maritime security concerns...
Africa: DRC's Rise to Africa's Top Five - A Moment Built on Minerals and Momentum
The International Monetary Fund now projects the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s GDP at roughly $123 billion in 2026, positioning it as sub‑Saharan Africa’s fifth‑largest economy, just ahead of Ethiopia. The surge is driven by the DRC’s dominance in cobalt and...
Israeli Airstrikes Kill 10 in Southern Lebanon, Undermining Fragile Ceasefire
Israeli forces bombed villages in southern Lebanon on Friday, killing at least 10 people and wounding dozens. The attacks came despite a ceasefire brokered on April 17, prompting renewed warnings from Hezbollah and raising fears of broader economic fallout for...
Japan’s Hotel New Daishin and 24 Care Homes Shut After Aggressive Expansion
The president of the firm that bought Hotel New Daishin and dozens of nursing facilities has overseen the closure of the Choshi hotel and at least 24 care homes after an aggressive acquisition drive since 2020. The chain, which purchased...
Deutsche Bank Finds Global Central Banks Cut Dollar Share to 40% and Double Gold to 30%
Deutsche Bank's research institute says the U.S. dollar's share of global central‑bank reserves has fallen from about 60% to 40%, while gold's share has risen to roughly 30%—a doubling in four years. The move is attributed mainly to rising geopolitical...
Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil Prices, Stalls Fed Cuts and Lifts Asian Bank Stocks
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged as the Iran war drove oil to four‑year highs, dampening hopes for near‑term cuts. In Asia, Singapore’s DBS Group posted a $2.93 billion Q1 profit, propelling its shares up 2.8% and buoying regional banking sentiment...
Crude Oil Breaks $100 a Barrel as Hormuz Tensions Spur Indian Airline Cost Crunch
Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on May 3, spurred by renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. The price spike is hitting Indian airlines hard, with jet‑fuel costs soaring and margins under pressure, while a VLCC carrying 1.9 million barrels slipped...
Sleepy Lamu Port Slowly Awakens as an Alternative Gateway to East Africa
Kenya’s $2.5 billion Lamu port, a deep‑water facility, has seen a dramatic surge in traffic as Middle East tensions force vessels to reroute. In the first four months of 2024, 102 ships—including the first pure car carriers—called at the port, with...
Trump Casts Doubt on Iran’s New Peace Proposal
President Donald Trump announced he has received Iran’s 14‑point peace proposal, delivered via Pakistan, but expressed skepticism, arguing Tehran has not yet paid a sufficient price for its actions over the past 47 years. He warned that if diplomatic progress...
Africa Enduring ‘Good’ Problem of Spending Own Growth Funds
Africa boasts roughly $4 trillion in domestic capital across banks, pension funds, insurance and sovereign wealth, yet struggles to channel it into infrastructure. The Africa Finance Corporation’s State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2026 highlights a $2 trillion institutional capital pool that remains under‑utilised...
India's Market Cap Lags Giants, Holds Massive Growth Potential
🇮🇳 INVEST IN INDIA 🇮🇳 Google's Market cap ($4.5 trillion) > the GDP of both Japan ($4.2 trillion) and India ($4.1 trillion). NVIDIA’s Market Cap ($4.91 Trillion) > the Market Cap of all listed Companies combined in India ($4.88 Trillion). Think about how...
Trump Pledges US to Guide Neutral Ships Out of Gulf
President Trump said the US will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf starting Monday. “This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran.” https://t.co/zfLjXmuuZ6
Stairway to Heaven I
The author revisits a promised structural‑demographic deep‑dive into China, noting the analysis was delayed but is now underway. The first phase focuses on how China’s ruling class reproduces itself, tracing aspirants’ origins and pathways to power. The piece introduces the...
Trump Announces US Aid for Ships Exiting Hormuz Monday
*TRUMP SAYS US TO HELP SOME SHIPS LEAVE HORMUZ STARTING MONDAY Here comes your weekly dose of Monday hope-ium
China's Low Inflation, Strong Growth Boost Happiness Ranking
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, China ranks as the 15th HAPPIEST COUNTRY out of 178 countries. This is thanks to their low inflation combined with strong real GDP growth per capita. CHINA = GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM. https://t.co/1r6CJ23Ozh
UAE Exits OPEC and OAPEC, Widening Gulf Rift
On top of leaving OPEC, the UAE has also left the (far less important) OAPEC, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh/Kuwait City seems to be growing.
Trump's Sanction Lift Fuels Russia's War Profits
Russia is making a lot of money for its Ukraine war. Thanks to Trump lifting sanctions.
Emerging Markets Will Bear Shortages; West Pays Higher Prices
I am tired of hearing alarmism in the West about food and energy shortages. The reality, while sad, is that emerging market countries will bear the vast majority of these shortages. The West will simply pay higher prices to redirect supply away...
FPIs Sell ₹60,000 Cr Equity Amid Nifty Surge
Despite the massive Nifty and mid/smallcap moves in April 2026, FPIs continued selling at 60,000 cr. sales in equity: (Source: NSDL) https://t.co/Acr9NvlE78
Debunking the China Shock 2.0 Hysteria
Easily the best and most comprehensive takedown of the current "China Shock 2.0" hysteria that I've seen so far. (tl;dr in the screenshots) Strongly recommended. "Should we be scared of China's surpluses?" https://t.co/RSBXkN5WX3 https://t.co/z6TS8YwaNV
China Relies on Food Imports Far More than US or EU
China is far more dependent on imported food/feed than either the US or the EU. In a world of "food regimes", this is a highly unusual and unique development. https://t.co/5797bIqtl7
China May Begin Food Decoupling, FT Data Shows
Is China about to decouple on food? Riffing on a piece in the FT in the latest chartbook this morning. https://t.co/a0lMMdOOgC https://t.co/fqNWpHCXJi