Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
China accelerates $50 bn U.S. Treasury sell‑off amid geopolitical tensions
China has rushed to liquidate its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, cutting the portfolio from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn—a $50 bn drop in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The move follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing ordering commercial banks to unwind $70‑$200 bn of T‑bills.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and threatening global food security. The United Nations, recalling its 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative that enabled safe Ukrainian grain shipments, could apply a similar maritime corridor to restore tanker traffic. If unresolved, the World Food Programme warns up to 45 million people could face acute food insecurity. Diplomatic momentum is building around a UN‑backed blueprint to reopen the strait.
Yes, the U.S. is losing control of the situation in many ways. Iranian attacks have re-intensified, and their hit ratio has increased. Trump's "we've already won" comments are looking increasingly bizarre. Here’s what it means for markets, macroeconomics, and more.
If the government is intent on the country becoming an emerging market, why does it insist on capital controls and foreign ownership limits? https://t.co/FnahXHXxsu https://t.co/NKzW8fXfGG
Shanghai certified 30 new regional headquarters and 15 overseas‑funded R&D centres, including eight Fortune 500 firms. The certifications highlight continued foreign interest despite a three‑year decline in China’s realised FDI. Shanghai now hosts over 1,000 HQs and 647 R&D sites, reinforcing...
Swedish electric‑vessel maker Candela closed a €30 million financing round, with €8 million from the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation. The funds will finance a second factory in Poland and accelerate global roll‑out of its P‑12 hydrofoil ferries as the company eyes...
Western mobile game makers see China as a $50 bn opportunity with roughly 700 m players. Regulatory approval, limited ISBN licenses and a fragmented Android ecosystem raise entry costs. Success stories such as Nexon’s Dungeon & Fighter Mobile illustrate upside, yet discoverability...
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...
Iran’s Ayatollahs Attack the Idea of the U.A.E. They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions. https://t.co/8UHgwE39t7
India is spearheading a WTO proposal to slash cross‑border remittance fees that currently eat 5‑6% of transaction values. The initiative targets regulatory and technical barriers, aiming to bring costs below the UN Sustainable Development Goal of 3% by 2030. Backed...
The Economist: China cannot escape the energy shock—Despite renewables and reserves, it will suffer https://t.co/hzNezKxOUo
Indonesia’s once‑large demographic dividend is nearing its end as the youth population peaks around 2030 and begins to shrink. While the working‑age cohort will still grow to over 200 million by 2045, manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has stalled, exposing a mismatch...
BlackSoil Capital has closed a ₹200 crore ($22 million) debt facility with Danish development financier Impact Fund Denmark. The funding will be used to scale climate‑aligned loans to micro, small and medium enterprises, especially in Tier‑2 and Tier‑3 markets and women‑led businesses....
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Turkmenistan’s leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Beijing, reaffirming the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations. Xi emphasized unwavering support for Turkmenistan’s sovereignty, neutrality, and independence, while urging deeper collaboration in the natural‑gas sector. The dialogue...
Ahead of the Two Sessions, President Xi released a new collection of speeches emphasizing a "correct view of political performance," signaling a shift away from the GDP‑centric evaluation that has driven China’s bureaucracy for decades. Xi now expects officials to...
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
BRICS members remain divided over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with China and Brazil condemning the attacks while India stays neutral and South Africa hesitates. The bloc’s recent expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE has...
The recent Iran war has exposed the shortcomings of the Gulf’s long‑standing “protection for sale” model, where security is bought through U.S. arms deals and basing rights. Authors argue that reliance on conditional American guarantees is unsustainable. They propose that...
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is negotiating fertilizer supply agreements with China, Russia, India and Belarus as Middle‑East tensions threaten the flow of nitrogen‑based inputs. While the agency has already secured more than 80% of its annual fertilizer requirement, rising...
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Several "dogs that didn't bark" in one headline: -Iran warned ahead of time it would hit Ras Laffan. -It fired five missiles (which it is said to be running out of.) -Four were reportedly intercepted, but one got through. -Investor consensus remains...
A potential war in Iran is sending shockwaves through the Asia‑Pacific as the region’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, LNG and petrochemicals makes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a catalyst for inflation, supply‑chain strain and strategic uncertainty....
Israel has hit Iranian energy infrastructure for the first time; the strike hit a processing facility tied to the South Pars gas field, which could lead to major electricity shortages in Iran within days. Access my daily coverage of the...
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
Chinese households are amassing cash at record levels, with deposits reaching roughly 118% of GDP by 2025, despite falling interest rates. A Reuters poll shows more than 80% of respondents prefer saving over spending, reflecting deep‑seated precautionary behavior. The shift...
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
The plan to separate China and Russia appears to be going about as well as the plan to re-open Hormuz. https://t.co/77hPZR1z9w
In February 2026 Russia unveiled the “Dmitriev package,” a $14 trillion economic reintegration proposal that promises sanctions relief, Western market access and joint energy ventures. The article argues the plan is unrealistic and overlooks Russia’s war‑driven economy, where defense and security...
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
Since 2023, China has poured more than $120 billion into overseas mining and mineral‑processing projects, covering lithium, rare‑earth metals and battery components. The Australian think‑tank Climate Energy Finance says the outflow fuels clean‑energy deployment in developing economies, supplying inputs for solar,...
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
Israel just struck Iranian infrastructure at South Pars, the world's biggest natural gas field. This natgas episode is definitely worth a listen ⬇️⬇️
Qatar’s customs chief assures that supply chains remain secure despite regional tensions, citing strategic reserves, digital customs systems, and multiple transport routes. The Al Nadeeb electronic platform and recent upgrades have accelerated clearance and increased transparency. Coordination with the GCC Customs...
Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, according to state television. Petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
Dominic Scriven, founder of Dragon Capital, argues Vietnam is the world’s most exciting emerging market. In a MoneyWeek Talks podcast, he highlighted Vietnam’s robust GDP growth, youthful population, and ongoing regulatory reforms that are attracting foreign investors. Scriven also shared...
This isn’t just an energy shock—it’s a structural hit to the Gulf growth model, writes @anasalhajji Deals are collapsing, exports are stalled, capital is coming home. This goes far beyond oil. #Geopolitics #Energy #Gulf #Macro
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
In this episode, Chris Sheldt‑Hoheaton talks with Dominic Scriven, founder and chair of Dragon Capital, about Vietnam’s evolution from a war‑torn, isolated economy to the region’s most dynamic emerging market. Scriven recounts his personal journey—from learning Vietnamese in Hanoi to...
L Catterton is launching a $400 million India Fund I, backed by a $200 million greenshoe, to double down on the country’s consumer sector. The firm will target founder‑led, differentiated brands in structurally attractive categories while shunning businesses that chase top‑line growth without...
FII holding in India: approx. US$ 750 billion FII holding in just Samsung Electronics, TSMC and Hynix: US$ 1.75 trillion Source: Nomura How much India has lost in past 2-3 yrs on a relative basis is crazy.
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
President Bola Tinubu and First Lady Oluremi Tinubu arrived in the United Kingdom on Wednesday for a two‑day state visit hosted by King Charles III and Queen Camilla at Windsor Castle. It is the first Nigerian state visit since 1989...
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced on Monday that Sri Lanka will close all public institutions, schools and universities every Wednesday, creating a four‑day work week to conserve fuel. The emergency measure takes effect immediately amid soaring oil prices of around...
