Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
China accelerates $50 bn U.S. Treasury sell‑off amid geopolitical tensions
China has rushed to liquidate its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, cutting the portfolio from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn—a $50 bn drop in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The move follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing ordering commercial banks to unwind $70‑$200 bn of T‑bills.
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million net‑open foreign‑exchange position ceiling on domestic banks, a move that comes as the rupee weakened 4% against the dollar. Banks warned of mark‑to‑market losses and have asked the RBI for temporary relief, highlighting a brewing liquidity crunch in the Indian FX market.
China unveiled its 15th Five‑Year Plan, a 2026‑2030 roadmap that puts self‑reliance, AI, and advanced manufacturing at its core. The plan coincides with profit turnarounds at AI firms like XtalPi and the launch of China Mobile’s Global Intelligence Center, signaling...
Foreign investors sold roughly $52 billion of Asian emerging‑market equities excluding China in March, the biggest monthly withdrawal on record. The outflow eclipses the 2020 pandemic sell‑off by 49% and the June 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war outflow by 148%, raising alarms about capital‑flow...
The article argues that Western portrayals of the BRICS+ as a disjointed "bric-à-brac" underestimate its growing resilience, especially as India assumes the 2026 presidency amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite criticism over heterogeneity, the bloc is expanding its economic infrastructure through...
The United Nations announced a new task force to safeguard Strait of Hormuz trade as two COSCO container ships were forced to retreat, and oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2022. The moves highlight mounting pressure on global...
Nepal police have taken former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai into custody over protests that erupted in September, citing alleged involvement in unrest. The arrest comes as newly elected premier Balendra Shah emphasizes cooperation with India to steady the country’s political...
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to halt oil shipments to Cuba and a high‑level call involving Elon Musk, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open have pushed global oil prices to multi‑year highs....
India’s government warned that the ongoing war in Iran could dampen economic growth and widen the fiscal deficit as energy and shipping disruptions ripple through multiple sectors. The March economic review highlighted higher input costs and supply constraints as near‑term...
In 2024, formal remittances to Sub‑Saharan Africa reached about $100 billion, with Nigeria alone receiving roughly $21 billion—around 10 % of its GDP. Policymakers see the challenge of turning these consumption‑driven inflows into savings and investment, a task that hinges on scaling Africa’s...
The Gulf states rely on desalination for the vast majority of their drinking water, producing roughly 40% of the world’s desalinated supply. Amid the US‑Israel conflict with Iran, Tehran has warned it will strike regional water‑treatment facilities if the United...
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Environmental activists have condemned the U.S.–Indonesia trade agreement signed on Feb. 19, saying it paves the way for expanded mining and fossil‑fuel extraction in Indonesia. The deal, valued at $33 billion, includes provisions that could loosen export bans on raw minerals and...
MercadoLibre reported net revenue up 45% year‑over‑year, outpacing analyst forecasts and positioning the Latin‑American e‑commerce leader as a defensive play for investors rattled by U.S. market turbulence. The company’s fintech arm, Mercado Pago, now serves more than 78 million users and...
India's foreign exchange reserves fell $11.4 bn to $698 bn in the week ended March 20, driven by a $13.5 bn plunge in gold holdings as global prices slipped 10%. The decline pushed the rupee to fresh record lows and raised questions about the...
Indonesia’s growth outlook is being squeezed by three simultaneous shocks – looming sovereign‑rating downgrades, renewed US trade friction and a fuel crisis sparked by the Iran war. Analysts warn the combined impact could stall the country’s 8% growth target and...
Alibaba.com president Kuo Zhang reports that 30%‑40% of the platform’s customers are now "one‑person companies," a growth fueled by AI agents that automate core e‑commerce functions. The trend is reshaping how startups are formed in China, with 10 million active users...
Sony announced a temporary suspension of orders for almost all SD and CFexpress memory cards due to a worldwide semiconductor shortage. Prices have tripled, tightening supply for AI data centers and consumer electronics across emerging markets.
Israel carried out a precision strike that killed IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, intensifying the ongoing Iran‑Israel war. The hit follows a series of high‑profile Iranian leader assassinations and has prompted Tehran to vow retaliation, while oil prices have surged...
The BSE Sensex slid 1,690 points (2.25%) to 73,583 and the NSE Nifty dropped 487 points (2.09%) to 22,820 as the US‑Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors dumped roughly Rs 1,805 cr crore (≈ $217 million) of Indian...
China’s electric‑vehicle market now commands over half of new car sales, propelling record‑high export volumes that generated a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Yet most of those earnings sit offshore, creating a hidden domestic dollar shortage that hampers imports and weakens internal...
Bosai plans an Indonesia aluminium smelting project in East Java, highlighting China’s accelerating overseas capacity strategy. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/bosai-indonesia-aluminium-smelting.html
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
The European Commission has finalized trade agreements with Mercosur, India and Australia, keeping a defensive stance on beef while pushing an offensive agenda for wine, cars and other high‑value products. In the Australia deal, the EU granted a 30,600‑tonne beef...
The International Monetary Fund and Pakistan have reached a staff‑level agreement that will make roughly $1.2 billion available to Islamabad, comprising $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The deal awaits IMF Executive Board...
Despite ongoing Middle East tensions that have heightened market volatility, global growth signals remain intact. U.S. business investment intentions are improving, with a notable tilt toward AI‑related capital expenditures. Meanwhile, the U.S. consumer continues to spend robustly even as energy...
India is deliberately staying out of the Iran‑Israel war, opting for quiet diplomacy rather than acting as a broker. New Delhi cites its strategic‑autonomy doctrine, preferring flexible, low‑visibility engagement over high‑risk mediation. The decision is driven by massive economic stakes...
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
A U.S. firm has reportedly resumed domestic production of a critical rare‑earth material for the first time in decades, though the company gave no specifics. Meanwhile, Chinese mining and energy groups posted divergent full‑year results, underscoring volatility in the global...
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2‑year rate hitting 3.98% and the 10‑year at 4.39%, triggering the sharpest bond‑market sell‑off since the Iran conflict began. Capital rotated into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds, signaling a new safe‑haven preference amid heightened...
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
U.S. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for a potential Iran energy deal to April 6, pausing attacks on Iranian energy sites. The move pulled Brent crude down to about $105‑$108 a barrel and WTI to $92‑$94, marking the steepest weekly...
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Asian equities fell sharply Friday as the Iran‑Israel war intensified, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel and triggering the worst Wall Street session since the conflict began. Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong led the declines, while bond yields...
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
China’s semiconductor industry has set an ambitious goal to achieve 80% domestic self‑sufficiency by 2030. The target was announced by a coalition of 13 leading Chinese chip firms, signaling a coordinated effort to close the technology gap with the United...
Feels to me like the effects of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and diesel export capacity is underappreciated by the market.
The requested story about a record $52 bn withdrawal from emerging‑Asia equities due to a Middle‑East oil‑price shock cannot be produced because none of the eight supplied sources mention capital flows, oil prices, or related market activity.
Industry body Assocham says India will grow above 7% in FY27, buoyed by consumption and investment, even as the OECD projects a slower 6.1% pace. Analysts warn that soaring oil and gas prices and fertilizer supply shocks could strain the...
WSJ: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade (with AMAZING charts) by @hannahmiao_ & @CloudberryRoque 🤓 👉🏻 https://t.co/vNeIUWWiqm https://t.co/GB3I7d35ly
Houthis Threaten Red Sea Escalation as Iran War Risks Spreading to Second Shipping Chokepoint https://t.co/9Nypu2iQHO
In this episode, RAINN analyst Chase Blazik explains how the Iran war is reshaping security and energy dynamics across the Asia‑Pacific. He details the recent Washington summit between Japan’s Prime Minister Takeichi and President Trump, highlighting Japan’s delicate balancing act...
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts discuss the rising probability of a U.S. recession amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, higher oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Using a random‑forest model that aggregates dozens of leading indicators—especially labor market...
The African Export‑Import Bank will make industrialisation the centerpiece of its 33rd Annual Meetings in El Alamein, Egypt, from June 21‑24. The gathering will convene heads of state, policymakers, financiers and private‑sector leaders to design projects that shift Africa’s trade model from...
