Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is deepening trade alliances with African nations, creating a new South‑South growth corridor. GCC countries bring abundant capital, sovereign wealth funds, and advanced logistics, while Africa offers natural resources, arable land, renewable energy potential and a youthful consumer market. Egypt is highlighted as a pivotal hub, leveraging the Suez Canal, diversified economy, and strong banking sector to link Gulf capital with African markets. Successful integration will require coordinated financial infrastructure, including cross‑border payments, local‑currency settlement and risk‑sharing mechanisms.
China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quota to $176.17 bn, a $5.3 bn increase and the largest since 2021. The move aims to satisfy growing domestic demand for offshore assets and signals a broader opening...
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
The Lao National Assembly approved the first phase of a 562‑km standard‑gauge railway linking Vientiane with Vietnam’s Vung Ang deep‑water port. Phase 1A, a 147‑km stretch from the Thai border to the Laos‑Vietnam frontier, will be built under a 50‑year build‑operate‑transfer...
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the launch of a second investment mobilisation drive targeting roughly $111 billion (R2 trillion) over the next five years. The South African Investment Conference has already secured about $49 billion (R889 billion) for 31 projects, promising 230,000 permanent jobs. A...
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
By 2050, an estimated 900 million people will be added to African cities, effectively doubling the continent’s urban population. The region’s rapid growth—averaging 3.5‑4% per year—will occur at per‑capita incomes of only $2,000‑$2,500, providing a far smaller tax base than historic...
Taiwan posted a record 7.71% GDP growth in 2025, outpacing IMF and ADB forecasts. The island’s economy is powered by a booming semiconductor and AI sector, which lifted exports by 35% and pushed the TAIEX above a $32 billion valuation. Foreign...
Turkey entered 2026 with a surge in market optimism, as the BIST 100 reached a record 13,867 points and the central bank trimmed its policy rate by 100 basis points to 37%. The government raised $3.5 billion through eurobond issuances, while...
The global energy trade has been taking hit after hit, and things might be getting worse. Ukraine launched a large drone attack on oil export facilities in the Baltic, proving they can disrupt Russian exports. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Tp92ahyVzj https://t.co/Zk1DX6pw9v
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M
International Holding Company (IHC) has received regulatory clearance to buy a 41.5% stake in Sammaan Capital Limited for roughly $1 billion. The deal, executed in stages, will make IHC a promoter with board control, signaling a major private‑equity‑style entry into India's...
Natura announced a sweeping governance overhaul, installing Alessandro Carlucci as chairman, forming a new advisory board led by its founders, and confirming Advent International’s intent to buy an 8%‑10% minority stake. The changes are designed to accelerate a new expansion...
S&P Global warned that sovereigns in emerging markets are entering a new credit‑downgrade era as the Middle East war pushes commodity prices higher and tightens financing conditions. The agency says the shock threatens fiscal balances in import‑dependent economies such as...
The United States launched 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs on an Isfahan ammunition depot linked to Iran’s enriched uranium program, while an Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti‑owned Al Salmi tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose...
Alstom announced it has secured a €700 million systems contract in the AMECA region, accounting for roughly 30% of a $2.75 billion total project. The order, recorded in Q4 of fiscal year 2025/2026, follows a 2.46% dip in Alstom’s share price on...
Uber pledged roughly $260 million (R5 billion) for South Africa over three years, mixing existing spend with new funds for electric‑vehicle fleets, charging infrastructure, merchant hardware and township‑focused Uber Eats. The announcement, made at the South African Investment Conference, is timed to...
China has imposed broad bans on fertilizer and fuel exports, citing domestic energy security concerns, while refusing to acknowledge the restrictions publicly. Southeast Asian nations—including Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia—are pressing Beijing to honor existing contracts and keep...
Malaysia’s central bank has raised its 2026 growth projection to a 4‑5% range, up from the government’s previous 4‑4.5% target, citing stronger‑than‑expected momentum in late 2025 and resilient domestic demand. The outlook incorporates risks from the Iran‑related oil price surge,...
Japanese conglomerates Mitsubishi Corp., Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., and Toyota Ventures LLC have pledged $147 million to a new Africa‑focused venture capital fund managed by Novastar Ventures. The fund also attracted capital from SBI Holdings, Mitsui OSK Lines, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency....
Colombia’s Afro‑descendant vice‑president Francia Márquez is spearheading a diplomatic outreach to Africa, highlighting shared heritage and seeking deeper economic ties. Trade between Colombia and the continent, though modest, has risen sharply – exports to Africa grew 16% annually from 2001‑2021...
Southeast Asian nations are confronting looming fertilizer shortages as global prices have surged sharply following the outbreak of war in Iran. The region relies on more than three‑quarters of its nitrogen‑based fertilizers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it...
Artificial intelligence is reshaping global commerce, with AI‑related hardware shipments surging nearly 40% in 2025 and accounting for roughly a third of worldwide trade growth. The United States emerged as the dominant demand hub, adding about half of all new...
Indonesia’s new sovereign fund, Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara), is marketed as an impact‑investing vehicle but operates as state‑directed capital. The fund is tightly woven into the government’s industrial strategy, aiming to reverse premature deindustrialisation as manufacturing’s GDP share slips to...
Ukraine’s equity risk premium has surged to roughly 19.8%, edging close to the 20% mark, making it one of the world’s most hazardous investment arenas. By contrast, mature markets such as Canada, Germany and Singapore sit near a 4‑5% premium,...
Asian nations are scrambling for Russian crude as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has cut roughly one‑fifth of global oil supply, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States temporarily eased sanctions on Russian shipments, first for India and...
Union Minister Piyush Goyal met a European Parliament delegation in New Delhi to discuss accelerating the India‑EU Free Trade Agreement, which was concluded in January 2026 and is expected to be ratified by early 2027. The FTA targets $300 billion in...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India is one of the largest importers of fertilizers sourced in the Gulf. Now, India has pivoted towards Russia. It is locking in long-term deals, to cut its reliance from the Gulf. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING...
Capital Flows' new report warns that post‑COVID markets have entered a high‑volatility macro regime driven by intensifying U.S.–China geopolitical friction. The analysis links the recent S&P 500 pullback to broader risk flows and explains why the dollar now mirrors these dynamics....
India recently pulled ahead of China in population, surpassing 1.4 BILLION people. But, when it comes to income per person, China continues to outpace India. https://t.co/eKcw6L1crT
Nigeria’s government has signed a roughly $950 million export‑finance pact with the United Kingdom to upgrade Lagos’s main seaports, including a $89 million contract for British Steel to supply 120,000 tonnes of steel billets. While the deal promises faster cargo handling and potential...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz for commercial traffic will be challenging, emphasizing the need for de‑escalation before safe navigation can resume. He hosted senior military officials and executives from Lloyd’s, Goldman Sachs, HSBC,...
I am a big fan of Chartbook and the collected works of Tooze -- but there is no way to look at China over the last 6 years and conclude that it has been a source of demand for the...
India’s real‑estate private‑equity inflows surged 59% in 2025, reaching $6.7 billion, driven by strong GDP growth and easing monetary conditions. Office assets led the market with $2.4 billion, while data centres and residential properties also saw sizable allocations. Foreign investors contributed roughly...
India faces a governing trilemma—democracy, rapid development, and civilizational nationalism—that it cannot satisfy simultaneously. Since 2014, protectionist economic nationalism has limited growth to 5‑6% despite the need for 9‑10% expansion. The paper argues this equilibrium of democracy plus civilizationalism yields...
Foreign direct investment into Ho Chi Minh City surged to nearly $2.9 bn in Q1 2026, a rise of more than 200% compared with the same quarter last year. When measured against the city alone, the increase approaches 480%. Exports for the...
A new study by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics warns that ongoing Middle East conflict could prevent half a million Pakistani workers from going abroad and trigger a similar number to return home, slashing remittance inflows by $1‑4 bn. The...
Hong Kong's IPO market, which raised nearly $14 bn in the first quarter – its best since 2021 – is now confronting regulatory warnings, a shortage of deal‑banking staff and Beijing's new restrictions on Chinese listings, dampening investor appetite and putting...
Finance Minister Olawale Edun said Nigeria will aim for 7% annual GDP growth and needs roughly $14 bn each year to close its infrastructure deficit. The pledge, backed by the Islamic Development Bank’s $2.4 bn support, is tied to broader reforms in...
Michael Spence warns that the global economy is riddled with single‑point chokepoints, from the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca to the Suez and Panama canals. Concentrated supply chains—such as Japan’s micro‑controller firms, the ASML‑TSMC‑Samsung semiconductor trio, and China’s rare‑earth dominance—have...
Air freight rates from India to the United States have jumped 200‑350% since the third Gulf war began on February 28, driven primarily by severe capacity shortages. Gulf hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have lost roughly 79% of cargo capacity,...
Pakistan’s military, led by Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has positioned the country as a broker in the U.S.-Iran war, offering to host talks in Islamabad and relaying President Donald Trump’s demands. The partnership deepened after the May 2025...
Houthi rebels have entered the Middle East war, raising concerns over oil supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $116.75 per barrel and WTI topped $100 as the rebels threatened to close the Bab al‑Mandab strait, which handles about 6 million barrels...
China’s slowdown generates both supply‑side and demand‑side shocks that ripple through global production networks. Recent IMF‑affiliated research finds that a negative Chinese supply shock cuts partner‑country GDP by about 0.15 % over two years, while demand shocks produce a similar but...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s February 2026 visit to China signaled a sharp turn in Berlin’s China policy, bringing it in line with France’s more confrontational stance. Over the past three years Germany has grown wary of Chinese competition in the auto...
KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li‑wen will lead a delegation to Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing from April 7‑12, with expectations of a meeting with President Xi Jinping. The visit aims to ease cross‑strait tensions, though its reception within the KMT remains uncertain. On March 27...
The episode explains that Kharg Island is Iran’s primary oil export hub, handling over 90% of the country’s crude shipments—about 1.7 million barrels a day, or roughly 1.5% of global supply. Experts Humayun Falak Shahi (Kpler) and Dr. Anahita Motazad‑Rad (LSE)...
While it’s possible that Iran’s enriched uranium could be secured by a diplomatic deal, most recent discussions have involved special forces’ boots on the ground And boots on the ground is going to seriously complicate efforts to reopen to Strait of...
The world is in an energy crisis as Hormuz is closed. Europe and Asia are running out of oil and gas. Meanwhile Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure using EU and U.S. funded weapons. What a retarded timeline.
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
