Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Sherritt International Halts Cuban Nickel Production Amid U.S. Sanctions
Sherritt International Corp announced the shutdown of its nickel mining, refining and power‑generation operations in Cuba after U.S. sanctions, sending its Toronto‑listed shares tumbling 42% on the news and leaving Cuba without a key source of hard currency and electricity.
Iran Responds to U.S. Peace Proposal as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Persist
Iran has formally replied to the latest U.S. peace proposal aimed at ending the ten‑week conflict that has choked the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. plan offers to lift the blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran permits unrestricted shipping, but...
Botswana Governor Calls for Deepening African Capital Markets at IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
Botswana’s central bank governor, Lesego Moseki, used the IMF and World Bank’s 2026 Spring meetings in Washington to champion deeper domestic capital markets as a catalyst for African growth. He chaired the IMF’s Africa Group 1 Constituency of 14 nations and...
Bank Indonesia Launches Large‑Scale FX Intervention as Rupiah Hits Record Low
Bank Indonesia said it will conduct large‑scale, 24‑hour foreign‑exchange interventions in both domestic and offshore markets to stabilise the rupiah, which hit a record low of 17,445 per US dollar. The central bank also lowered the documentation threshold for dollar...
The World’s Next Gold Rush: How Explorers Can Play a Role in the New Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is accelerating its mining sector under Vision 2030, treating minerals as a third pillar of growth to reduce oil dependence. The Kingdom’s mineral endowment is now valued at roughly $2.5 trillion, with mining licences surging 220% in 2025 and $11.7 bn...
Iran Conflict Triggers Recession, Accelerates Renewable Shift
principal near term impact of ongoing iran war: global recession. bad for everyone. principal long term impact of ongoing iran war: end of opec, faster move away from oil & gas towards post-carbon renewables. good for everyone, especially china.
IMF Approves $1.32 Bn Package for Pakistan, Relieving Rupee Pressure
The International Monetary Fund cleared a $1.32 bn financing package for Pakistan, unlocking $1.1 bn from the Extended Fund Facility and $220 m from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The disbursement is expected to shore up foreign‑exchange reserves and temper recent rupee volatility.
Trump Urges China to Buy US Energy as Iran War Spikes Oil Prices and Fed Faces Pressure
President Donald Trump is set to ask Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase purchases of American oil and gas at a May summit, leveraging the Iran‑related Strait of Hormuz shutdown that has pushed U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon....
Buy Asian Cyclical Exporters on Trade‑talk Dip
US–China trade talks in S.Korea (May 12–13) signal detente; risk if talks falter. Trade insight: buy Asian cyclical exporters on dip. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Bloomberg This Weekend: Iran Responds to US Proposal (Podcast)
Iran’s state news agency confirmed it has replied to the latest U.S. proposal aimed at ending a ten‑week war, though details remain undisclosed. Acceptance could halt hostilities that have driven regional instability and pushed global energy prices higher, while negotiations...
No PANs Issued to FPIs for a Month, Onboarding Hit
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in India have been unable to receive Permanent Account Numbers (PAN) for nearly a month after the Income Tax Department altered the PAN application process within the Common Application Form (CAF). At least 20 newly registered...
Microsoft Kenya Data Center Stalls, Prompting Near‑Term Sell
Macro: cloud capex shifts; Key: MSFT-G42 $1bn Kenya data center stalled over guaranteed-payments and power; Risks: scale-back, execution/geopolitical; Trade: reduce MSFT near-term. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote Targets New Refinery in Kenya
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote is evaluating a 650,000‑barrel‑a‑day oil refinery in Kenya, with Mombasa emerging as his preferred location. He estimates the project will cost between $15 bn and $17 bn. The move follows Kenya’s President William Ruto’s call for a regional refinery, previously...
India’s Policy Push to Boost Aerospace Manufacturing: Thales
Thales says India’s new production‑linked incentive (PLI) scheme, higher defence budget and customs‑duty exemptions will accelerate aerospace component manufacturing. The Union Budget 2026‑27 earmarks roughly ₹7.85 lakh crore (about $95 billion), a 15% rise, while the UDAN programme allocates ₹28,840 crore ($3.5 billion) to develop...
Translux Limited Raises $20 Million with Debut Kazakhstan Bond
Translux Limited, the longest‑standing oil trader in the Dubai International Financial Centre, closed a $20 million, 14% coupon bond on March 30, 2026. Structured by Velar Capitals and placed on Kazakhstan’s AIX platform, the issuance signals the firm’s push toward a...
Zimbabwe Firms Accelerate AI Adoption, Marking a New Growth Phase in Emerging Market Tech
Zimbabwean companies are rapidly deploying artificial intelligence to overhaul strategy, forecasting and operations, signaling a tech-driven growth surge in the emerging market. The shift comes as firms confront currency volatility, tight monetary policy and rising competition from telecom giants, while...
ZiG Stability Drives 417% Surge in Zimbabwe Stock Turnover
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) attributed a 416.83% jump in quarterly turnover to the stabilising ZiG currency, with inflation falling to 3.8% and the exchange rate holding at 25.57 per dollar. The surge propelled VFEX market capitalisation to $4 billion and...
Spain’s “Compliment Sandwich” Aims to Bridge $50 B Trade Gap with China
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Beijing, pairing praise for China’s rise with pointed criticism of its trade practices, seeking to narrow a $50 billion deficit. Analysts see the “compliment sandwich” as a possible template for Europe as U.S.‑Iran tensions and...
Europe's Trade War with China (Episode 214)
The European Union has intensified its trade dispute with China, launching anti‑dumping investigations and provisional tariffs on sectors such as solar panels, steel and rare‑earth magnets. Duties can reach up to 25 percent, aiming to counter perceived Chinese subsidies that distort...
Trump‑Xi Energy Deal Unlikely: China Won’t Depend on US
Unlike their 2020 phase one agreement, I am skeptical Chinese energy purchases will be a *meaningful* deliverable from Trump-Xi 2.0 for three reasons - Why would China increase its vulnerabilities, becoming dependent on a rival for energy - Trump can't commit to...
China Uses Trade Deals as Leverage, Creates Hostages
China loves these deals, as they create "hostages" that China can seize if the relationship goes sour -- (of course China never delivered on its "phase one commitments, and it squeezed 'beans hard over the last year) 1/3 https://t.co/54LagYdspc
Renewed Iran Conflict Halts Chinese Rally, Drags Asian Stocks Lower
A flare‑up in the Iran‑U.S. conflict on Friday stopped a three‑day rally in China’s stock market and sent broader Asian equities sliding. Oil prices stayed above $100 a barrel, sparking currency weakness and inflation worries across the region.
Iran's Delays Defy Expectations of Time Pressure
Guys, why is Iran taking its sweet time? I was assured that time was not on their side. https://t.co/CAnxzIdQdX
Iran Blockade Lowers Oil Prices, Confirming Original Prediction
When I first started pushing for an Iran blockade, my main point was that the big rise in oil prices already priced the incremental disruption to supply, so the pros outweighed the cons. That's been borne out. Oil prices are...
Bank of America Strategist Calls Commodities the Biggest Trade of the Next Five Years
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett declared commodities the biggest trade of the next five years, anchoring his call on de‑globalization, chronic capital under‑investment and a shift away from dollar dominance. The thesis has sparked debate over a potential super‑cycle...
China Shifts From Low‑Value Manufacturing to High‑Tech Dominance
China is increasingly dominating high-tech industries, while the low-value manufacturing sectors that powered the country’s rise are becoming less important economic drivers https://t.co/z2ny9xep3S via @WSJ
China Vows to Curb Local Debt, Boost Growth
1/7 Bloomberg: "China pledged to step up efforts to defuse local government debt risk while supporting growth, as the State Council called for stronger policy execution in a challenging global environment." https://t.co/d7kk0t3Ahy
Irregular: 5 Steps for Managing Geopolitical Risk
Damien Escher delivered a Melbourne address outlining a five‑step framework for corporate leaders to manage geopolitical risk, spurred by the Iran‑Israel conflict and its ripple effects on oil, insurance and supply chains. He emphasized that most firms still rely on outdated...
The Consensus on China’s Economy Is Strong, and Wrong
The article challenges the prevailing view that China’s development model suppresses domestic consumers. While China’s consumption share of GDP hovers around 40%, the author argues this metric is misleading and highlights per‑capita household consumption, which has risen 7.6% annually from...
‘Europe Is Coming to Africa’. But Macron’s Nairobi Summit Could Be Little More than a PR Exercise
French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto convened the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi on May 11‑12, positioning it as a platform for "Europe coming to Africa on an equal basis." The agenda includes French investment deals, notably...
China Urges Germany to Curb EU Protectionist Drift
China calls on Germany to play “a constructive role” in urging the EU not to stray further toward protectionism https://t.co/exhFDSFfKb https://t.co/gbCkFEP9tx
A New Cold War
The author argues that the United States’ war in the Persian Gulf is a proxy conflict in which China uses Iran as a strategic instrument. Beijing possesses the leverage to end the fighting—through oil purchases, dual‑use technology, and diplomatic channels—but...
India’s GDP per Capita Outpaces Peers, Bolstering Modi
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: In India, real GDP per capita has surged WELL ABOVE its emerging market peers. Under PM Modi, rising living standards and strong economic growth have pushed India AHEAD. STRONG ECONOMY = PUTS WIND IN MODI’S SAILS. https://t.co/UdkHTnINmZ
ASEAN Leaders Commit to Boost Intra‑Bloc Trade and Food Security Amid Global Shipping Disruptions
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, leaders led by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pledged to intensify intra‑bloc trade and reinforce regional food‑security mechanisms. The agreement fast‑tracks ratification of an upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) to cut...
DRC Unveils Greater Kasai Copper Megaproject with Up to 500 MW Hybrid Power Plant
The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a new copper megaproject in Greater Kasai that could produce between 200,000 and 500,000 tonnes of copper a year. The plan pairs the mine with a 250‑500 MW hybrid hydro‑solar power facility, aiming to spur...
Goldman Sachs Ups On‑shore Yuan Forecast as Export Surge Fuels Valuation Case
Goldman Sachs revised its on‑shore yuan projections, moving the 12‑month target to 6.50 per dollar, citing a 14.1% export rise in April and a valuation gap of over 20%. The bank argues the yuan is fundamentally undervalued, beyond short‑term trade‑talk...
Argentina Economists’ Forum Warns of Domestic Debt Stress and Global Spill‑over Risk
Leading economists gathered in Buenos Aires under Chatham House rules and warned that Argentina's mounting domestic debt is creating spill‑over risks for emerging‑market investors. The forum highlighted dwindling policy buffers, persistent inflation and a fragile global order as amplifiers of...
Argentina’s Mining Revival Triggers $42 Billion Copper Investment Wave
President Javier Milei’s reforms and the RIGI incentive regime have drawn about $42 billion in copper project commitments, positioning Argentina as a future top‑10 copper producer. The surge also bolsters the country’s lithium profile amid a global race for critical minerals.
Uzbekistan Airports and Allied Biofuels Ink $6.1 Billion SAF Deal to Launch 160k‑tonne Plant by 2030
Uzbekistan Airports and Allied Biofuels have signed a memorandum of understanding to build a $6.1 billion integrated refinery that will produce 160,400 tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and 257,000 tonnes of electro‑synthetic SAF (e‑SAF) each year. The partnership, slated to...
Foreign Investor Share Falls to 14.7% as Domestic Institutions Rise to 18.9% in India
Foreign Institutional Investors now hold just 14.7% of Indian equities, the lowest level since June 2012, while domestic institutions have surged to 18.9%. The shift, documented by JM Financial, signals a structural rebalancing that could rev up investment‑bank advisory work...
Kenya Converts $3.5 Bn of Chinese Loans to Yuan, Signaling Pragmatic Shift Across Africa
Kenya’s Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi confirmed the October 2025 conversion of $3.5 bn of dollar‑denominated Chinese loans to yuan, a move aimed at cutting interest costs. Zambia’s mining firms are also paying taxes in RMB, while African banks link to...
Tripadvisor Q1 2026 Revenue Falls 4% as Geopolitical Turmoil Hits Hotel Bookings
Tripadvisor reported consolidated revenue of $382 million for Q1 2026, a 4% decline driven by macro‑related disruptions in its Hotels & Other segment. The company flagged a 20% revenue drop in that segment and outlined AI partnerships and cost cuts as...
Walmart CEO John Furner Meets PM Modi, Signals $40B India Investment Push
Walmart chief executive John Furner met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reaffirm the retailer’s $40 billion sourcing footprint and outline a broader push into India’s digital commerce and payments ecosystem. The three‑day visit comes as Walmart‑owned Flipkart and PhonePe prepare...
Mongolia's Central Bank Pushes Rate Cuts to H2 2026 Amid Inflation and Tugrik Weakness
Mongolia’s central bank announced it will defer any interest‑rate reductions until the second half of 2026, citing persistent inflation and a weakening tugrik. The decision signals tighter monetary conditions for the mining‑driven economy and could reshape capital flows across emerging‑market...
India's Sensex and Nifty Drop 0.7% as US‑Iran Flare Lifts Oil Above $100
Indian benchmarks slid roughly 0.7% on Friday as renewed US‑Iran clashes drove Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The Sensex lost about 500 points to near 77,300, while the Nifty 50 fell to around 24,160, even as the mid‑cap index...
Honduras Reviews China Deals and Taiwan Relations
New Honduran President Nasry Asfura announced a review of the previous administration’s agreements with China, including Huawei telecommunications equipment, as part of a broader effort to pivot toward the United States and potentially recognize Taiwan. The review coincides with talks...
Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating High Stakes Trump-Xi Talks
Investors are eyeing the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit for signs that geopolitical tension may ease, which could lift the lingering overhang on Chinese equities. While analysts doubt a concrete trade deal will emerge, the mere dialogue is expected to calm market...
How to Get the Green and the Deal: Recalibrating EU Industrial Policy
European policymakers are overhauling the EU’s industrial strategy to confront aggressive state‑driven competition from China, protectionist U.S. tariffs, and a stalled multilateral trading system. The recalibrated approach seeks to fuse climate goals, economic competitiveness, and security into a single, mutually...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/contemporary-financial-skyscrapers-from-ground-view-against-sky-972700554-cfd8445375b043c2a42df6d9e24ab9c1.jpg)
How Capital Controls Safeguard Economies: Types & Effects
Capital controls are policy tools that limit foreign capital flows to curb currency volatility and protect domestic markets. They are widely used in developing economies and during crises, as illustrated by Greece’s 2015 restrictions that halted bank runs. The IMF...
Traders Looking for Next Leg in Global Stocks Rally Bet on Asia
Investors are shifting focus from the Iran conflict to Asian equities as the next driver of market gains. South Korea's Kospi index has surged 78% year‑to‑date, the highest rise among global markets, while Taiwan’s bourse posted similarly strong performance. The...