Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Deutsche Bank Flags Dual Inflation Risks From ‘Super’ El Niño, Middle East War
Deutsche Bank Research now sees a "super" El Niño persisting through July, adding to inflation pressure in the Philippines already heightened by the Middle East war. The bank lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 6.5%, above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' 6.3% estimate, and nudged its 2027 outlook to 4.2%. It also anticipates two more 25‑basis‑point rate hikes, taking the policy rate to roughly 5% by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, GDP growth slowed to a five‑year low of 2.8% in Q1, stoking stagflation worries.
As PM Modi Calls for Conserving FX, What Steps Can India Take?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to conserve foreign exchange as soaring oil prices push the rupee to record lows and drain reserves. The Reserve Bank of India has been selling dollars, cracking down on arbitrage and scouting ways to...
As Trump Heads to Beijing, China Is ‘Locked and Loaded’ for a Fight
President Trump and Xi Jinping are meeting in Beijing amid escalating economic tensions between the United States and China. Beijing has recently deployed a new legal framework to counter U.S. sanctions, blocked Meta’s purchase of a Chinese AI startup, and...
Indian Rupee Erases Recent Gains as US and Iran Fail to Reach an Agreement. What's Next?
The United States and Iran failed to reach a nuclear‑related agreement, prompting the dollar to regain modest strength. The Indian rupee erased most of its recent gains as oil‑price sensitivity and geopolitical tension weighed on the currency. Technical analysis shows...
Iran War Day 73: Trump and Tehran Clash over Latest Peace Proposals
U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, calling it totally unacceptable, as the 73‑day U.S.-Israel war on Iran drags on. Tehran’s offer called for ending the naval blockade, lifting sanctions and preserving its nuclear and foreign‑policy autonomy, which...
Why Nairobi Africa-France Summit Bears the Hallmarks of Macron and Ruto Priorities
The 2026 Africa‑France summit in Nairobi marks the first time the gathering is hosted by a non‑former French colony, underscoring President Emmanuel Macron’s revamped Africa doctrine. The event highlights France’s pivot toward apologies for colonial harms, a neoliberal small‑business agenda,...
China-Founded MiroMind Halts Mainland AI Services
MiroMind, the AI startup founded by Chinese gaming mogul Chen Tianqiao, announced it will suspend its MiroThinker services in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau effective May 12. The halt follows a restructuring that separates its Singapore‑based research arm from regional...
Africa: All of Africa Today - May 11, 2026
Kenya and France sealed 11 bilateral agreements covering transport, energy, digital technology and more, notably a $83 million upgrade of Nairobi’s commuter rail and a $693 million logistics‑port joint venture. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, opposition leaders denounced President Félix Tshisekedi’s...
Heads Up: Trump-Xi Summit Due for Later This Week
U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing from May 13‑15, marking the first visit by a U.S. president since 2017. The trip, framed as a symbolically significant diplomatic overture, follows a year of tariff escalations and a postponed schedule due...
India, Peru to Hold Talks on Free Trade Pact in June
India and Peru are set to resume negotiations on a bilateral free‑trade agreement in June, with a target to seal the pact by the end of 2026. The talks will include a dedicated chapter on critical minerals, reflecting Peru’s status...
India’s Growth to Slow to 6.7% on Waning Momentum, Oil Price Shock: BMI
India’s fiscal‑year 2026‑27 GDP growth is now projected at 6.7%, a full percentage point below the 7.7% pace recorded in 2025‑26. The downgrade stems from waning domestic momentum and an oil‑price shock linked to the Iran‑U.S. conflict, with Brent crude...
Emerging Currencies Weaken as Iran Conflict Dims Risk Appetite
Emerging‑market currencies slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as oil prices surged past $105 a barrel and the Iran‑Israel conflict intensified. The MSCI Emerging‑Market Currency index declined 0.1%, with oil‑importing economies such as India, Chile, South Korea and Thailand...
Italy’s Edison Expects Two-Thirds of LNG Supply From Qatar to Be Delivered Shortly After Any Peace Deal
Edison, QatarEnergy’s biggest Italian customer, said it will receive roughly two‑thirds of its contracted LNG volumes within 30‑45 days after any peace agreement between the United States, Israel and Iran. The company has already seen 12 cargoes cancelled, though eight...
China Expanding Its Industrial Dominance, Warns US Business Group
A leading U.S. business coalition warned that China is rapidly expanding its industrial dominance through aggressive subsidies, state‑backed investment, and technology transfer policies. The group highlighted that China’s manufacturing output rose 6% year‑on‑year in 2023, while its high‑tech sector received...
The Winners and Losers of the Iran Energy Shock
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March choked roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, triggering national energy emergencies and sharp price spikes. Countries heavily dependent on imported fuels, from the Philippines to Zambia, scrambled for emergency...
Supercycle Looms as Capital Fuels Tech-Driven Growth
There is a rising probability that we have a super cycle based on: Increasing interest payments that need monetizing via the bank of system The reliance on short term bill issuance reducing cyclically of debt rollover. The largest capex boom in history based...
China Fixes Currency at 3-Year High Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
China’s central bank intervened to hold the yuan at roughly 6.2 per dollar, a three‑year peak, just days before President Donald Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping. State‑owned banks sold dollars and bought yuan to halt a recent slide that...
China Reflation Momentum Strengthens in April, Likely Keeping the PBOC on Hold
China’s April inflation data showed a rebound, with CPI rising to 1.2% YoY and PPI climbing to a 45‑month high of 2.8% YoY. Energy costs surged, pushing producer‑price inflation up 17.4% YoY, while food prices, especially pork, remained deflationary. Export...
TelkomGroup Launches Pukpuk Submarine Cable, First Direct Link Between Indonesia and PNG
TelkomGroup, through its subsidiary Telin, inaugurated the Pukpuk Submarine Cable System linking Jayapura, Indonesia, with Vanimo, Papua New Guinea. The first cross‑border cable in the Asia‑Pacific region promises route diversity, stronger digital infrastructure and new economic opportunities for both nations.
Brazil Seeks Rare‑Earth Role in US Market as Lula Visits Washington
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used his May 2026 visit to Washington to pitch Brazil as a reliable source of rare‑earth minerals for the United States. The diplomatic push comes as Washington tightens tariffs on Chinese rare‑earth imports, prompting Brazil to...
Apollo Global Management Hits $1 Trillion AUM After Record Q1 Inflows
Apollo Global Management announced that its assets under management have crossed the $1 trillion mark, driven by record inflows in the first quarter of 2026. The surge reflects heightened allocations from Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, pension managers, and...
ASEAN Leaders Issue Joint Action Plan as Oil Prices Surge, Growth Forecast Cut to 4.5%
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in the Philippines, leaders adopted a joint response to the Middle East energy shock, announcing coordinated measures to secure oil supplies and cutting the 2026 growth forecast for six core economies to 4.5% from 4.8%....
Saudi PIF Launches $7 Bn Three‑tranche USD Bond Issue, Marking Return to U.S. Market
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) issued a $7 bn USD‑denominated bond program in three tranches on May 10, 2026, signaling its comeback to the U.S. sovereign‑style market. The order book suggested strong demand, underscoring renewed investor appetite for Middle‑East sovereign...
Vietnam's VN‑Index Hits Record 1,925 Points, Driven by Real Estate and Banking
The VN‑Index climbed to a new peak of 1,924.95 points, extending a seven‑week rally as large‑cap real estate and banking stocks attracted heavy buying. Weekly liquidity surged to roughly $5.2 bn, while foreign investors posted net sales of about $180 m.
China's PPI Surge Boosts FX, Not Equities
Good morning, China PPI rose to 2.8%YoY in April from 0.5% but CPI increased by much less at 1.2% vs 1.1% previously. Chinese equities have underperformed Japan, Taiwan, South Korea because of margin compression, subdued domestic demand, and thus less ability...
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
Kalshi’s prediction market shows the probability of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz swinging dramatically over the past week. Analysts link the volatility to Iran’s strategic leverage and the lingering uncertainty surrounding U.S. diplomatic moves. Brent crude hovers around...
Trump‑Xi Imagery Hints China Reopens to U
The expected images of @realDonaldTrump and Xi together may still send a signal within China that it’s more acceptable again to engage with U.S. businesses, said Michael Hart, @AmCham_China. “Since U.S. military actions earlier this year, Chinese officials have been...
China Pushes Global Expansion While Guarding Domestic Production
Rhodium: "Chinese firms are emerging as major global competitors, but Beijing is intent on ensuring that this overseas expansion does not lead to a hollowing out of production or capabilities in China or a loss of control over key supply...
U.S. Rare‑Earth Push Targets Africa to Cut China’s Grip
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced a $2 billion portfolio focused on sub‑Saharan rare‑earth projects, pairing early‑stage grants from the USTDA with large‑scale financing. The move seeks to build African processing capacity and blunt China’s hold on the critical‑minerals supply...
China’s Industrial Push Threatens G7’s 13% Export Share
Hard hitting and detailed rpt on China's new industrial policy and implications. Including the potential challenge to/loss of market share in G7 = almost 13% of mfg exports by 2030. Past due time to smell the coffee. https://t.co/9WBKMxPaRz
China Pumps AI and Weapons, Economy Sputters
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess. Government pours money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and job market grows bleak @BrianSpegele https://t.co/oLalrSpepN https://t.co/oLalrSpepN
China’s Infrastructure Surge Fuels Frontier Investment, Lifts Emerging Outlook
China’s April infrastructure data revealed a 3.6‑point month‑on‑month rise in construction‑machinery operating rates and a 175% year‑on‑year surge in AI and humanoid‑robot investment. The rebound is drawing fresh frontier‑market capital and reshaping growth expectations for emerging economies.
Saudi Retaliation Risk: Destroying Own Oil Assets
“… Had the Kingdom wanted, and it is capable of doing so, to respond in kind to Iran by destroying Iranian facilities and interests, the outcome could have been the destruction of Saudi oil facilities…” — Prince Turki Al-Faisal https://t.co/yVh8S9oMYL
China Will Act only when Iran Disrupts Its Interests
Trump hopes Xi will intervene with Iran But he will escalate probably next weekend if not, writes @TheMichaelEvery China will act only when disruption starts to hurt IT more than it hurts the U.S. And not a moment before. #China #Iran #Hormuz...
Guyana’s FDI Hits 35% of GDP, Signaling Surge in Investor Confidence
President Irfaan Ali announced that foreign direct investment in Guyana has risen to roughly 35% of GDP, a level he says reflects heightened global confidence in the country’s economy, political stability, and diversification agenda. The surge underscores Guyana’s emergence as...
Tech Exports Fuel K‑Shaped Divergence Across Asia
A thread storm of Asia K-Shaped Divergence in Asia. In January, we published a note called EM Asia K-Shaped Recovery: Tech Exports to Lead Regional Economic Divergence in 2026, with India Lagging Even before the war, tech was driving divergence in performance...
China's Inflation and Producer Prices Beat Forecasts
JUST IN: China's April consumer prices rose 1.2% year-over-year, versus an estimate of 0.9%, and producer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year, versus an estimate of 1.8%.
Why Indian Companies Don’t Want to Invest in India
India’s private sector is hoarding cash and avoiding domestic capital spending despite strong profit growth. Over the past decade, corporate capex fell from over 40% of GDP to about a third, prompting the government to intervene with tax cuts and...
China’s Oil Aid Drives Asian Pivot From US
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s DIPLOMATIC POSITIONING: “China is deploying its 1.4-billion-barrel strategic crude reserve to aid its Asian neighbors while the US is blocking the Strait of Hormuz.” Seoul, Tokyo, and Jakarta are PIVOTING AWAY from Uncle Sam. https://t.co/PLQmOFRWfy
Investors Shift Focus to Asian Equities for Next Rally
As the focus moves away from the Iran war, investors and strategists alike are looking for the next leg up in equities. Many are turning to Asia. https://t.co/6c0zWItqEk
Fiscal Policy Response to Iran War Risks Worsening Inflation: BIS Chief
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos warned that the Iran war could push global inflation higher while dampening growth. He cautioned that an overly expansive fiscal response by governments could amplify price pressures. Central banks,...
IMF Misses Surge in China's Surplus, Predicts Decline
The IMF didn't see the big rise in China's surplus coming. In fact, @IMFNews always forecasts that the surplus will dissipate -- From work in progress with Shahin Vallee 1/ https://t.co/Wp2uhY73cS
Government Targets £99bn in Australian Investment in Major Projects
The UK government aims to attract roughly $126 billion of Australian pension capital into British projects by 2035, more than doubling the current $52 billion held by Australian funds. Investment minister Lord Stockwood is touring Australia, Malaysia and Singapore to promote the...
China’s Real Estate Reckoning: Lessons From Japan’s Lost Decade
China’s six‑year real‑estate slump mirrors Japan’s 1990s bubble burst, with city‑level overbuilding driving falling prices and weak consumer confidence. Housing now represents roughly 70% of Chinese household wealth, so price drops trigger sizable consumption cuts. Research comparing 300 Chinese cities...
Taiwan’s Cheng Li-Wun on Cross-Strait Peace, Meeting Xi Jinping and Managing Ties with US
KMT chair Cheng Li‑wun met Xi Jinping in Beijing, reaffirming the 1992 consensus and stressing a “century of peace” that can survive Taiwan’s political swings. She warned that the DPP’s push for de‑Sinicisation heightens the risk of conflict and argued the KMT...
ASEAN’s Proposed Resilience Measures Must Go Into ‘Full Gear’, but Domestic Priorities a Stumbling Block
At the 48th ASEAN Summit, leaders agreed to accelerate regional resilience measures amid Middle‑East supply shocks, including a proposed fuel stockpile and a standby food‑security arrangement. The ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) was highlighted as a framework for collective oil...
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
China Offers Aid as US Builds Walls
My take in @FortuneMagazine on the pivot away from the USA to China: “While Bessent was busying himself on Fox News, China was busy making friends by supplying those in distress with much-needed oil and other commodities…While Washington raises walls, Beijing opens doors.” https://t.co/E4hn2YdcN2
Indonesia’s EV Push Could Save $300 Bn and Cut 6 Bn Barrels of Oil by 2060
The International Council on Clean Transportation released a working paper showing Indonesia’s move to electric vehicles could reduce cumulative fuel consumption by 5.1‑6.7 bn barrels of oil equivalent and generate $255‑$321 bn in energy‑cost savings by 2060. The analysis links the shift...
China Leverages SOEs to Weaponize Import Bans
I am not the first person to observe that when China decides to make a political point by not importing it makes that point forcefully -- by zero'ing out its imports from a specific country. Big SoEs control a...