Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan secures LNG supply assurances from a major producer
Taiwan’s economy minister announced that a major LNG‑producing nation will provide additional cargoes on request to meet the island’s gas needs amid concerns the Iran war could disrupt Middle‑East supplies. The pledge complements a new agreement with the United States that will deliver 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year.
President Donald Trump warned the United States would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks, prompting a sharp sell‑off across global markets. Asian equities reversed gains, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 5.5% and European indices falling more than 1%. Treasury yields spiked, the U.S. 10‑year note climbing to 4.368%, while the dollar index rose 0.5%. Oil prices surged, Brent crude jumping 6.7% to about $108 a barrel.
Chinese state‑run Economic Daily published front‑page editorials denying the existence of a so‑called “China shock 2.0.” The outlet argues that China’s export engine remains strong and that the real threat to the global economy is rising protectionism, not a slowdown in...
This was never a local conflict. What looks regional is built on years of preparation, alignment, and strategy. Different actors. Shared objectives. Long-term planning. And the focus isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption at scale: energy flows, shipping routes, and global systems. That’s what makes this different. Not short. Not...
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗔𝗜 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀. 𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘁𝘁𝘀. And right now, one country is moving faster than everyone else. China is not just “going green.” It’s building scale most economies can’t match. What stands out to me is...
Saudi Arabia is pivoting from oil to critical minerals to meet Vision 2030 goals, targeting 30% electric‑vehicle sales and 50% renewable electricity by 2030. Africa, which holds about 30% of global critical‑mineral reserves, is becoming a key supply source. Riyadh has...
Will Beijing throw its weight behind Iran negotiations? That is a key question we tried to answer in our China Macro Watch report released yesterday. While markets and diplomats anticipate a more proactive Chinese role in mediating the Iran conflict,...
April 2, 2026, 4:50 AM, website comment for subs on geopolitics and markets. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/tWw5e5VWPG
East African economies are slipping toward a debt trap as governments replace concessional aid with costly commercial loans and Eurobonds, pushing debt‑service costs to record levels. In Kenya, roughly 68% of revenue now funds debt repayments, crowding out credit for...
Interesting Caixin article on China’s intensifying crackdown on the consumer lending and loan-facilitation business, with regulators summoning major platforms for talks and pressing the industry to sharply curb borrowing costs. https://t.co/BIv3i5trGx
Yicai: "Beijing's expenditure on science and technology is expected to break through CNY400 billion (USD58 billion) for the first time in 2026, with a greater emphasis on basic research, as the country ramps up funding to drive innovation and strengthen...
Twenty‑four roadblocks staffed by militias and corrupt officials line the Goli–Mahagi–Kisangani route, a vital segment of the Northern Corridor linking Uganda to eastern DRC. Unofficial fees of up to $300 per vehicle are inflating transport costs and delaying deliveries. The...
China imports the most oil via the Strait of Hormuz but is also one of the best placed to weather its closure. EVs are part of that story. Five years ago China targeted 20% of new vehicles in 2025. They...
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
Analysts say the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices will dominate equity sentiment for the week of March 30‑April 3. A thin data calendar and mixed U.S. economic releases add uncertainty, prompting traders to focus on technical support levels and short‑term...
India’s new emissions-reduction plans offer significant investment opportunities in sectors related to grid upgrades and storage batteries, according to one of the country’s largest climate-focused funds https://t.co/JLBiDWCCaC
Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson announced Ghana’s new Loans Act, a legal framework that will tie every public loan to high‑impact projects and set stricter borrowing limits. The move follows a $3 billion IMF programme that has already lowered debt...
The escalating US‑Israel war on Iran has driven West Texas Intermediate above $100 a barrel and Brent past $115, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock indices have collectively shed roughly $120 bn in market value. The price spike stems from a...
The Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway, awarded to a Chinese firm in January 2026, has ignited fierce criticism after a joint study identified 15 protected natural areas and almost 2,000 communities at risk. Experts say the route threatens the Amazon’s biodiversity and...
In April 2025 the United States unleashed sweeping tariffs and China responded with export controls, creating a “World War Trade” that shattered the post‑World‑II rules‑based system. While the US‑China clash intensified, the other 75 % of global trade—countries responsible for three‑quarters of...
In this article, “how the Gulf’s war is becoming Asia’s crisis too,” The Economist magazine analyzes the three main transmission channels: “prices, debt and scarcity.” #economy #asia #middleeastwar #growth #inflation #debt @theeconomist
Malaysia's economy expanded 5.2% in 2025, slightly above the 5.1% pace of 2024, driven by a 5.5% rise in services, 4.5% manufacturing growth and a 12.2% construction surge, supporting a GDP of roughly $400 bn. Early 2026 data show the Industrial...
Jordan is positioning itself as a regional trade hub by leveraging deepening Saudi investment, which now exceeds $15 billion, and a series of bilateral agreements signed in Riyadh. Trade between the two countries grew 19% in the first half of 2025,...
Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance Latest @UNCTAD report on Hormuz 1⃣Energy corridor halted: The Strait of Hormuz remains “practically closed,” disrupting a critical share of global oil and gas flows. 2⃣Trade losing momentum: Global merchandise trade is...
Indonesia, a net oil importer of 1.5 million barrels per day, is urging faster renewable adoption after oil prices breached $100 per barrel, a shock that could add up to $3 billion to its fiscal deficit and pressure logistics costs. Policymakers argue...
The IMF warned that the Iran war is delivering a global but asymmetric shock, bolstering Gulf Cooperation Council economies as a growth anchor while exposing emerging markets to heightened inflation and balance‑of‑payments stress. Malaysia’s central bank lifted its 2026 growth...
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that, starting April 1, it will target a list of U.S. multinationals operating in the Middle East, including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla, Boeing, JPMorgan, Oracle, Nvidia and others. Many of these firms form...
The United States and Ukraine have launched a U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, injecting an initial $150 million to develop Ukraine’s critical mineral assets. The fund is governed by a six‑member board—three Americans and three Ukrainians—aiming to channel private and public capital...
Indonesia’s 2025‑2029 economic roadmap hinges on manufacturing, which posted a 5.3% growth rate in 2025—slightly above the nation’s 5.0% GDP expansion. The sector now accounts for 19.07% of GDP and over 80% of exports, employing more than 20 million workers. Government...
UK High Commissioner Jonny Baxter praised the Central Bank of Nigeria’s growing credibility and highlighted the United Kingdom’s position as Nigeria’s largest single source of foreign capital, accounting for roughly half of recent inflows. He noted that Nigeria’s macro‑economic reforms...
Balenciaga opened an upgraded 572‑square‑meter flagship in Guangzhou’s Taikoo Hui complex on March 27, 2026, nearly doubling the space first launched in 2022. The expansion, driven by creative director Pierpaolo Piccioli and CEO Luca de Meo’s growth push, signals a deeper bet on...
At the Boao Forum for Asia’s 25th conference, leaders reaffirmed Asia’s role as the world’s primary growth engine, with its share of global GDP projected to reach 49.7% in 2026. The Philippines, positioned at the heart of Southeast Asia, is...
Helios Towers has secured a $110 million investment agreement with DRC’s ANAPI to expand its mobile tower infrastructure. The deal will fund new sites in urban and rural areas, improve network resilience, and incorporate sustainable energy and local skill programs. Helios,...
The way out of this mess, according to our geopolitics guy: The TACO was trailed by yesterday's talk about leaving others to free up the strait. Trump's latest burp today hardens this somewhat when, in answer to his own claim that...
Helios Towers announced a $110 million investment to expand telecom tower infrastructure in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The deal, signed with the government’s ANAPI agency, will fund new sites across urban and rural areas and improve energy resilience. Helios already...
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
President Donald Trump’s statements on the Iran conflict have swung from pledging a quick exit to threatening to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Meanwhile, Iran has intensified missile and drone strikes...
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
President Trump removes Delcy Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan government, from the U.S. sanctions list https://t.co/TUZyRVdQUV
President Trump signaled he may end U.S. strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, prompting a wave of market optimism. Brent crude briefly slipped below $100 a barrel, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures turned positive and 10‑year Treasury yields...
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's position in the war: "Iran is seeing these events... as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia. To invert it completely, to remove the US... and its whole infrastructure of finance...
How will Trump’s “mistake” affect his meeting with Xi? What does it mean to the agenda, expectations, and outcomes? Starting with trade, supply chains, and logistics. Taiwan?
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) approved a $565 million loan to Brazil’s Serra Verde, granting the United States off‑take rights to rare earths from the company’s Pela Ema mine. The agreement ensures that heavy rare earths, critical for magnets...
Left: "Much of Beijing's current strategy toward the US was laid down in 2002, when the CCP concluded China faced an unprecedented 20-year 'period of strategic opportunity' [due to] the GWOT distracting US leaders." Right: Cover of this week's The Economist...
Ships paying Iran for transit thru the Strait. In yuan. Not dollars. An indicator of a coming currency battle? And roiling supply chains and maritime?
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is spilling into Iraq, where rockets and drones have struck near Baghdad and Erbil, disrupting daily life. Oil exports are faltering after Iranian attacks on tankers and a force‑majeure declaration on foreign‑operated fields, threatening the...
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
Indonesia’s government has rolled out emergency measures to curb a worsening energy crisis, including a push for remote work, reduced subsidies and scaling back free school meals to conserve fiscal resources. Economists and business groups warn that these austerity steps...
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
