Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Political unrest drives Africa’s capital flight, FDI plunges 42%
Afreximbank warns that a surge in coups and political unrest across Africa is prompting capital flight and eroding investor confidence. Its 2026 African Trade and Economic Outlook notes that foreign direct investment fell 42% to $28 billion in the first half of 2025, the steepest regional decline.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Madica invests $600K in three African startups
Oil prices surged toward the $100 mark after doubts resurfaced about the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, with Brent at $99.3 and WTI at $101.5 per barrel. Traders cite a still‑closed Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and mixed signals from Washington and Tehran as the main drivers of the volatility.
Fitch Ratings' April 10 analysis finds Indian banks remain relatively resilient as credit pressure builds across South and Southeast Asia. The agency warns of margin compression of 20‑30 basis points and a liquidity surplus that has slipped to just 0.5%...
Uzpromstroybank reported a 36% jump in first‑quarter 2026 profit, even as its loan portfolio slipped slightly. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas raised its domestic procurement share to 93% and launched a new Register of Domestic Manufacturers, underscoring a broader...
Turkey is positioning Lebanon as a cornerstone of its Eastern Mediterranean strategy, linking economic cooperation with security objectives. President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have highlighted Lebanon’s role in shaping post‑Israel‑Hezbollah dynamics and in accessing offshore gas reserves. Ankara’s...
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire announced on April 7 triggered a 13% drop in Brent crude, pulling prices to about $93 per barrel. Oxford Economics still expects a two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by lingering disruptions, forecasting a 0.8%...
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
President Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a flurry of diplomatic back‑and‑forth. Tehran confirmed the truce but insists on a 10‑point proposal, while Washington negotiates on a 15‑point framework, accusing Iran of...
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced that the government is negotiating free‑trade agreements with at least 20 additional countries, adding to the nine FTAs signed in the past 3½ years that already cover 38 developed nations. The new round targets...
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will travel to Beijing to seal a High‑Quality Investment Agreement that obliges Chinese firms to share technology, use local suppliers and create jobs in Spain. The pact aims to address Spain’s $36.1 billion trade deficit with...
The Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for India’s FY 26 GDP growth to 6.9%, citing resilient domestic demand and the recent easing of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. The projection contrasts with the Reserve Bank of India’s more bullish 7.6%...
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
In this 7‑minute episode, Kalpana Fitzpatrick talks with Karen Hewitt of The Gym Group about how partnering with Jobcentre Plus has become a core growth strategy for the fast‑expanding gym chain. Hewitt explains the challenges of finding qualified Level 3 personal trainers...
The episode opens with Julian Hoffman dissecting the shaky US‑Iran ceasefire, highlighting the lack of clear terms, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the mixed market reaction that has nonetheless lifted European equities and trimmed oil prices. The...
The United States has installed an interim caretaker government in Venezuela after removing President Maduro, opening the door to a potential economic rebound driven by oil, mining and diaspora capital. Restoring oil production could require more than $100 billion and a...
Iranian state media rejected reports of a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, insisting talks will only resume after a Lebanon ceasefire. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Katayama warned of possible FX intervention as oil‑driven volatility spikes, while the Bank of Japan flagged...
Kevin Gallagher and Rebecca Ray: "Given that financing from the World Bank and its counterparts has remained stagnant since the 1990s, China has helped fill widening infrastructure gaps across the Global South. That’s the good news. The bad news is...
The Asian Development Bank warned that the ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran will blunt Asia’s growth momentum, revising the region’s 2026 GDP expansion to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. If the conflict persists for a year, the bank estimates a...
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Contrary to Western propaganda, the Iranian economy DID NOT COLLAPSE prior to the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran’s growth profile is almost identical to Australia’s. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the financial press is either WRONG or...
Central Pattana Plc announced a THB 110 billion ($3 billion) investment plan to roll out 33 mixed‑use developments by 2030. The strategy targets new economic districts in Bangkok and regional growth centres, aiming to generate jobs and recurring income.
Day 3 of the ceasefire: no movement in Hormuz (But the fragile truce seems to be holding on the ground, air and sea, despite sporadic violations, with not major attacks by either Iran or the US)
Sánchez to push China to hand over tech secrets on Beijing trip https://t.co/iSThlJP5lO via @basteiro https://t.co/gW7fldvHZn
Argentina's oil output climbed to a record 874,000 barrels per day, up 15.9% from a year earlier, as the Vaca Muerta shale complex ramps up production. The surge lifts the country's share of global oil supply and fuels optimism on...
1/2 Yicai: "China's retail sales of passenger cars declined more than 17 percent in the first quarter of the year, as new energy vehicle sales fell 21 percent following adjustments to the NEV purchase tax breaks." https://t.co/sWTFDBWjLi
China's leaders now at least give lip service to supporting domestic demand -- and sometimes even claim not to want to rely on exports for growth. But in at least one prominent sector, domestic demand is down (autos) 1/ https://t.co/jZxOmf68t9
The Japanese yen slipped back toward ¥159 per dollar and the South Korean won opened at 1,480.6 per dollar as investors reacted to renewed doubts over a newly‑brokered US‑Iran ceasefire. The moves underscore how Middle‑East geopolitics are reverberating through Asian...
Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China’s Deflationary Streak—Factory-gate prices rise in China for the first time in over three years @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5 https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...
European Commission is considering withholding up to €1.5 billion (about $1.6 billion) in conditional funding to Serbia over concerns about democratic backsliding, including recent judicial reforms and media repression. The decision hinges on whether Serbia complies with recommendations from the Council of...
Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto is preparing a visit to Russia, where he is expected to meet Vladimir Putin and discuss potential oil purchases. The Kremlin confirmed talks are underway as Asian nations scramble for alternative energy amid a widening Middle‑East‑driven crisis....
Foreign portfolio investors dumped over ₹60,000 crore (≈ $7.2 billion) from Indian financial services in the second half of March, the steepest outflow since 2012. The sell‑off peaked at ₹28,824 crore (≈ $3.5 billion) from March 16‑31, contributing 43% of the ₹67,081 crore (≈ $8.1 billion) withdrawn across 21 sectors. Banking...
Birth rates are sliding worldwide even as governments roll out cash bonuses, tax tweaks and relaxed family‑size limits. New Zealand’s natural increase fell to just over 19,000 births in 2023, the lowest since World War II, while the United States, Russia...
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but within 48 hours Israel’s heavy bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory moves have rattled the deal. The fallout has knocked the CAC 40 lower, slumped India’s Sensex by 1,100...
Asia‑Pacific markets opened mixed on Friday as renewed Middle‑East tensions tested a fragile two‑week Iran‑U.S. ceasefire. Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks provided attacks stop, while Israel also signaled compliance. Oil prices rose, with WTI...
Thoughtful Money moderated a live debate between Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, and Brent Johnson, founder of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, to assess the fallout from the US‑Israel war with Iran. The discussion explored whether...
Over the past year more than thirty AI researchers have left Silicon Valley for Chinese tech giants, including ByteDance and Tencent. High‑profile defections such as Wu Yonghui from Google DeepMind and Yao Shunyu from OpenAI illustrate a broader reverse migration....
The EU‑India trade agreement, signed in January, will cut tariffs on European wines from 150 percent to 75 percent initially and eventually to 20 percent, opening a market valued at $450 million in 2024 and projected to grow 14 percent by 2029. European vintners have...
HSBC’s latest geopolitical paper argues that a de‑escalation of global tensions will diminish the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. With reduced risk, demand for the dollar should fall, allowing higher‑risk, undervalued currencies to rally. Emerging‑market (EM) currencies and those of energy‑importing...
Amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted China's vulnerability to concentrated energy supplies. Beijing is turning to Latin America for food, copper, lithium and other strategic commodities to diversify its import base. The United States'...
Standard & Poor’s has lowered Colombia’s sovereign credit rating from BB to BB‑, marking the country’s weakest rating in more than three decades and a level not seen even during the 1999 crisis. The downgrade reflects a widening fiscal deficit...
A tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran lifted some pressure on Asian equity markets on Wednesday. However, the rally was limited as Israel’s large‑scale strikes on Lebanon, which Tehran says breach the truce, kept regional tensions high. Major...
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but Israel’s massive bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have already strained the truce. Oil prices surged, dragging down European...
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh announced a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of breaching the cease‑fire. The move pushed U.S. crude oil futures more than 5% higher after a 16% plunge the day before, reviving...
Cooley partner David He told e27 that Southeast Asia’s startup funding landscape has shifted dramatically, with capital becoming more disciplined and expectations higher. AI has emerged as the dominant sector, now attracting a sizable share of new investments. He identified...
Mexican startups outperformed their Brazilian counterparts in the first quarter, raising a total of $404M compared to Brazil’s $240M. Historically, Brazil has been the powerhouse in Latin America for venture capital funding. But it’s not the first time in recent quarters...
Probably the most globally consequential data point you didn’t know was coming out this week. China is expected to have exited PPI deflation in March. Data due in ~90 min. https://t.co/i6OFkfd0Ki
The World Bank projects India’s GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, noting that the ongoing Gulf conflict could shave a few tenths off the outlook. It assumes oil prices of $90‑100 a barrel and expects growth to rebound to about...
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
Both Tehran and Washington are upping the ante ahead of the ceasefire talks over the weekend. But raising the stakes increases the miscalculation risk: “We will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” Iranian...
