Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia creates state‑run export hub to tackle $6.5B under‑invoicing and chase $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that all exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move aims to curb under‑invoicing, which cost $6.5B in 2016, and to generate up to $150B in annual revenue.
Trump Faces High-Stakes Meeting with Xi
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing with senior officials and leading CEOs, setting the stage for a high‑stakes Thursday meeting with Xi Jinping. The White House signaled openness to Chinese direct investment in U.S. manufacturing, even as the Iran war looms over the agenda. American automakers are uneasy about potential Chinese electric‑vehicle (EV) stakes, a concern echoed by Commerce Secretary Gina Lutnick’s recent rebuke of similar proposals. Critics warn any investment could act as a strategic Trojan horse for Beijing.
Cantor8 Partners with Yiksi to Tokenise M‑PESA and EVC Plus Across Africa
Cantor8 announced exclusive memoranda of understanding with Yiksi Limited and fintech platform Taran App to bring Kenya’s M‑PESA and Somalia’s EVC Plus onto its Canton blockchain. The pilot targets low‑banked markets, promising faster settlement and crypto conversion for millions of mobile‑money...
What to Expect From the U.S.-China Summit
In this brief episode, Ariana Salvatore of Morgan Stanley outlines modest expectations for the U.S.-China Summit in Copenhagen, noting that discussions will likely center on trade, Taiwan arms sales, and the Iran conflict rather than sweeping policy shifts. She anticipates...
Iran‑Israel Conflict Casts Shadow Over BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting in New Delhi
Iran urged India, the 2026 BRICS chair, to use the New Delhi foreign‑ministers summit to condemn U.S. and Israeli actions, while the UAE and Iran clash over the war. The discord threatens a joint BRICS statement and highlights the fragility...
Ghana Pays $1.4 Billion in Central Bank Interest as Debt Exchange Programme Seeks Fiscal Relief
Ghana’s central bank disbursed roughly $1.4 billion in 2025 to commercial banks for open‑market operations, a cost that consumed about three‑quarters of its operating income. At the same time, the government’s Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) is being used to postpone...
UAE Leaves OPEC+ After Six Decades, Prompting New Gulf Oil Dynamics
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC+ after nearly six decades of membership, freeing it from collective production quotas. The move underscores a strategic shift toward greater autonomy and could spark volatility in global oil markets, affecting other...
China’s $3 Trillion Hidden Bad Debt Threatens Recovery as Trump Heads to Beijing
Analysts estimate China’s hidden non‑performing loans at $3 trillion, far above the official 1.5% rate, dragging down growth and prompting a $100 billion capital boost for major banks. The debt backdrop looms over Donald Trump’s imminent visit to Beijing, where trade and...
Trump’s Shrinking Ambitions on China
President Trump, campaigning in 2024 on a hard‑line China trade agenda, promised tariffs of 60% and removal of WTO‑based preferences. A year into his second term, his approach has softened, with higher overall U.S. tariffs but similar levies applied to...
China, the Iran War, and the US
In this episode, economist Diana Choileva discusses how the great‑power rivalry between the United States and China is fracturing globalization and reshaping global finance. She reviews the accuracy of her decade‑old forecasts, noting that the US‑China trade and tech wars,...
Trump‑Xi Summit Puts Taiwan at Center of U.S.–China Talks
President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, and Taiwan has emerged as a flashpoint. The $11 billion arms package approved for the island and a $25 billion weapons purchase by Taiwan’s legislature are sharpening U.S. and Chinese expectations...
China’s Expanding Countersanctions Framework and the Growing Divide Between Beijing and Washington
China has introduced a sweeping set of regulations to counter foreign sanctions, export controls and other extraterritorial measures, while simultaneously adopting state‑level provisions on industrial and supply‑chain security. The new rules give Chinese authorities power to prohibit compliance with foreign...
Indonesia Delays Nickel, Copper, Tin, Gold Royalty Hike After Industry Push
Indonesia has postponed the June 2026 increase in royalties on nickel, copper, tin and gold after strong pushback from mining firms. The move pauses a draft that would have raised tin royalties up to 20% depending on price, while the...
Brazil Breaks Five-Year IPO Drought with Compass Listing, Signals Market Revival
Brazil's Compass deal marks the first initial public offering in five years, ending a prolonged market freeze and offering a test of investor appetite amid high benchmark rates. The listing could pave the way for other mid‑cap firms if structural...
Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Offer, Brent Crude Surges Above $105 a Barrel
Iran rebuffed a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, sending Brent crude up more than 3% to $105 a barrel and keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. The escalation fuels inflation worries in commodity‑dependent emerging economies and tightens global oil supplies.
This Hidden Cost of the Iran War Hits the Stock Market Even Harder than Inflation
The Iran conflict is creating more than higher oil prices; it is generating sustained price volatility that undermines business confidence. While a stable $100‑a‑barrel market can be managed through hedging, swings between $95 and $130 freeze capital‑allocation decisions. Prolonged uncertainty...
Policy Planners Outline India’s Economic Response After PM’s Call for Energy Discipline
India’s policy makers warned that the West Asia war‑driven oil shock is testing the country’s macro‑economy, threatening inflation, the current‑account gap and rupee stability. Ministers called for tighter fiscal discipline, deeper deregulation and a push toward globally competitive manufacturing to...
Nvidia’s Huang Wants to Sell Chips to China. Trump Has Other Priorities.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will not join President Donald Trump on the administration’s upcoming trip to China, according to media reports. The omission suggests the White House is scaling back efforts to open the Chinese market for U.S. semiconductor firms....
China Ramps up Dollar Swaps to Curb Yuan Rise
Bloomberg is reporting a $3b (CNY 17.4b) increase in the use of PBOC swaps in Q1 ... Que forecasts of dollar doom In the first quarter China (PBOC and state banks) bought $180 of fx to keep the CNY from rising --...
Vietjet Inks Strategic Tech and Airport Deals with India's GMR and Bird Group
Vietnam's low‑cost carrier Vietjet has signed strategic cooperation agreements with India's GMR Airports and Bird Group, targeting joint development of air routes, smart‑airport technology and ground‑handling services. The deals aim to deepen Indo‑Vietnam trade, tourism and logistics, building on Vietjet’s...
Trump Heads to Beijing Seeking Chinese Help to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Iran War
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 to meet Xi Jinping, urging China to pressure Iran and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of world crude. The visit also tackles lingering trade disputes and...
Future Inflation Trajectory Will Be Shaped by Pass Thru of Higher Energy Prices, Progress of Kharif Sowing
India's Economic Research Department (ERD) projects CPI at 4.5% for FY27, citing the pass‑through of higher global energy prices and a 300,000‑hectare drop in Kharif sowing as key inflation drivers. April 2026 CPI rose to 3.48% from 3.40% in March,...
Trump Rejects Iran's Dilution Offer, Raising Stakes for Middle‑East Emerging Markets
President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's offer to dilute enriched uranium as 'totally unacceptable', prompting harsh criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Sen. Lindsey Graham and former adviser John Bolton. The rebuff heightens geopolitical risk for Iran and its neighbours,...
Ethiopia Energy Project: China’s Ming Yang Secures License for $15 Billion Renewables
China’s Ming Yang Smart Energy Group secured a near‑$15 billion renewable‑energy investment license from Ethiopia’s Investment Commission, expanding an earlier $10 billion deal. Phase One allocates $7.47 billion to build 8.4 GW of solar‑wind capacity across South Omo, Afar and Somali regions. Phase Two earmarks $7.3 billion for...
How the U.S.‑Israel War Against Iran Is Exposing the Limits of the Petrodollar System
U.S. public debt has risen to $31.27 trillion, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP, reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability. Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds, which collectively own roughly $2 trillion of U.S. assets, are reassessing those holdings after the U.S.-Israel campaign...
Suriname’s Delayed Oil Boom Is Finally Ready for Takeoff
Suriname’s offshore oil sector is poised for a breakthrough as the $10.5 billion Gran Morgu project reaches 50% completion and targets first oil in 2028. The development, led by TotalEnergies and APA, will produce 220,000 barrels per day with breakeven costs...
PM Modi’s UAE Visit to Focus on India’s Energy Security: MEA
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to the United Arab Emirates on May 15 as part of a five‑nation diplomatic tour, with the primary agenda of bolstering India’s energy security amid escalating West‑Asia tensions. The talks will focus on establishing...
India Has a Strong Economic Runway for at Least Next 15-20 Years: Citi India Chief
Citi’s India franchise, now focused solely on institutional banking, has outgrown its previous combined retail‑institutional operation. The bank sees India as a long‑term growth engine, contributing over $2 billion to Citi’s roughly $80 billion global revenue—about 4‑5% of its institutional earnings. A...
Trump, Xi Secure Fragile Trade Truce, White House Seeks Stability
After a bruising trade war consumed most of 2025, Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed last fall to an uneasy economic truce. The White House, struck by Xi’s demonstrated willingness to push back hard on Trump’s tariffs, now...
Elon Musk To Join Trump On China State Visit. Tesla Stock Sinks.
Elon Musk will accompany President Donald Trump on a state visit to China, joining a delegation of top CEOs aimed at securing trade concessions. The announcement sent Tesla shares down about 5% after a brief rally. Musk hopes to address...
UAE Sees Rapidly Growing Trade with Syria, as Ties Warm
UAE‑Syria non‑oil trade more than doubled in 2025, reaching a record $1.4 billion, a 132 % jump from the prior year, according to UAE trade minister Thani Al Zeyoudi at the inaugural Syrian‑Emirati Investment Forum. The two sides signed preliminary agreements on...
Daily Memo: India on Russian LNG, Brussels on Afghan Migrants
India has told Russia it will not buy Russian liquefied natural gas that falls under U.S. sanctions, a stance conveyed to Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin during his April 30 visit to New Delhi. The decision impacts at least one...
‘It Is Coming, and It Is Coming Big’: Uday Kotak on Oil Price Shock
Billionaire banker Uday Kotak warned that India’s oil‑price shock from the West Asia war is about to hit the economy hard. While retail petrol has stayed at ₹94.77 per litre (~$1.14) for 18 months, oil‑marketing companies are absorbing daily losses of up...
West Asia Crisis a ‘Live Stress Test’ for India’s Balance of Payments, Says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran warned that the West Asia crisis has become a live balance‑of‑payments stress test for the country, pressuring inflation, the current account and the rupee. He highlighted a 48% jump in Brent crude, a 500% surge...
Xi’s Leverage Forces US to Rethink Taiwan Policy
FT says Xi now holds most of the cards ahead of the Trump meeting Liberation Day tariffs flopped once China’s critical mineral chokehold started shutting U.S. factories Now the Iran war fiasco has weakened Washington further EXPECT A REVISION OF THE US POSITION...
Philippines House Sends Vice President Sara Duterte to Senate Impeachment Trial After 257‑Vote Vote
The Philippine House of Representatives approved articles of impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte with a 257‑25 vote, forwarding the case to the Senate. The move comes as Senate President Vicente Sotto III was ousted in a leadership coup, raising...
Botswana’s 2026 Growth Outlook Trimmed to 3.7% Amid Diamond Volatility and Fuel‑Price Inflation
Economist Keith Jefferis says Botswana’s GDP is likely to rise only 3.7% in 2026, down from the IMF’s 4.7% forecast, as diamond output volatility, a war‑driven fuel shock and inflation above 10% weigh on the economy. The outlook highlights the...
China’s Elite Shifted From Public to Private Wealth
The transformation of the Chinese “elite” since the 1980s has been dramatic. In the 1980s the richest 5 percent were made up of people drawing their incomes from public sector sources. By 2018 private income predominates and the group is...
Russia Slashes 2026‑29 Growth Forecast, Holds Oil Price Steady
“Russia has cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 and the following three years but left unchanged the projected oil price despite the spike in global prices driven by the war in the Middle East, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak...
Poonam Gupta: Prosperous States for a Prosperous India
Poonam Gupta addressed the Columbia Indian Economy Summit 2026, outlining India’s accelerating economic growth over four decades. She highlighted that real GDP growth rose from 5.7% in the 1980s to 7.7% in the most recent four‑year period. Gupta then examined...
ESF Funds Favor Wealthy Allies,
if the $212b (counting ~ $175b in SDRs that Republicans historically haven't liked using) Exchange Stabilization Fund is going to be given to allies without a financial need (like the UAE) not everyone is going to be able to get...
Ming Yang Lands $14.1B for 2.8GW Ethiopian Solar
China’s Ming Yang secures $14.1 billion, 2.8GW Ethiopia solar investment #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/oGuQVvDMLi
Plan to Extend Mnangagwa's Term Threatens Zimbabwe Debt Relief
Zimbabwe’s effort to restructure its $23 billion sovereign debt has hit a political roadblock as a constitutional amendment seeks to extend President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s tenure to 2030, sidestepping required referendums. The move has alarmed international lenders—including the World Bank, Paris Club,...
Korean AI Dividend Proposal Triggers 5% KOSPI Slide
This is a pretty interesting story from Korea last night. One politicians posted something about establishing a public AI "dividend", and the KOSPI quickly plunged over 5% (before cutting its losses) https://t.co/Xn6m2Oglko https://t.co/DZap3k2hSM
Chinese Nationalists Cite Trump as Proof of East’s Rise
China increasingly casts itself as a superpower poised to surpass America.Chinese nationalists say they have Mr. Trump to thank. America under his rule,they say, validates Xi’s worldview centered on “the rise of the East and decline of the West.”My latest...
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African Leaders Push Credit Reforms at Nairobi Summit with France
African leaders at the Nairobi Africa Forward Summit urged reforms to credit‑rating methodologies, arguing that perceived risk inflates borrowing costs. French President Emmanuel Macron pledged support for a first‑loss guarantee to de‑risk African investments and will lobby for it at...
Trump Returns to Beijing as China Grows More Defiant
Trump Faces an Emboldened China in Return to Beijing—A decade after Trump’s last visit, Beijing is digging in on core issues of disagreement with the U.S., despite weaknesses at home https://t.co/Z4QKyot731 https://t.co/Z4QKyot731
China's Mercantilist Squeeze Threatens Developing Economies
Important NEW paper @PIIE China's mercantilist squeeze on developing economies by @arvindsubraman @shoumitro_c Who really is harmed by China Shock 2.0
Ramaphosa’s Political Peril Earns Shrug From Investors for Now
South Africa’s rand remains steady despite looming impeachment talks against President Cyril Ramaphosa. The president rebuffed calls to resign in a televised address, while a court ruling on May 8 revived a 2022 farm‑theft scandal that fuels the political drama. Investors appear...
China's Military Dominance and 2027 Taiwan Reunification Unaccounted
The hubris of Trump/Bessent IS China: “China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close” And China reunifying with Taiwan in 2027 is not priced in.
Trump-Xi Summit Puts Rare‑Earth Mineral Tensions Front‑and‑Center
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing to discuss trade, security and rare‑earth minerals, with Washington pressing Beijing to ease supply‑chain pressure on critical mining inputs. The talks come amid broader Middle‑East turmoil and a...