Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
BofA analyst sees rupee slipping to ₹98‑99 and fiscal deficit widening to 5% in FY27
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria projects the Indian rupee will fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also expects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government's 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections, adding roughly 150 basis points to the shortfall.
Modi Wants Indians to Press Pause on Gold. But the $5.2 Trillion Obsession Runs Deep
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to pause gold purchases and the government responded by raising import duties from 6% to 15%, adding roughly ₹4,500 per 10 g ($54) to retail prices. India’s households hold about 34,600 tonnes of gold, valued at $5.2 trillion, making it the world’s second‑largest consumer. The policy sparked a brief surge in bridal jewellery sales (15‑20% above average) followed by a 25‑30% dip in store footfall, though serious buyers remained. Analysts expect a modest 10‑12% long‑term demand softening, but cultural attachment keeps overall consumption robust.
EU-Mexico Modernized Trade Deal Adds $5 B Investment, Cuts Tariffs, Shifts Supply Chains
The European Union and Mexico sealed a modernized free‑trade agreement that includes a $5 billion investment package, eliminates most tariffs on agricultural goods and opens digital‑trade and procurement markets. The deal, hailed as a geopolitical statement, is set to reshape supply‑chain...
India Emerges as Top Alternative to China for Manufacturing and Supply‑Chain Diversification
India is being touted as the premier destination for multinational firms looking to diversify away from China. Vice‑Chancellor Rakesh Mohan Joshi highlighted the country’s 1.46 billion population, booming smartphone output and government incentives as key draws, even as rising oil prices...
Bernstein Forecasts India’s Biopharma Market to Hit $195 Bn by 2035 on Innovation Surge
Bernstein has launched coverage of India’s healthcare sector, projecting the country’s biopharma market to grow four‑fold to $195 bn by 2035. The firm attributes the upside to six niche “rainmaker” therapies that could add $70‑75 bn to industry revenues, positioning India as...
Nigeria's Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate at 26.5% as Union Bank Court Fight Escalates
Nigeria's Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its Monetary Policy Rate unchanged at 26.5% as inflation stays above 15% and election‑year spending looms. At the same time, a Federal High Court judgment nullified the CBN's 2024 dissolution of Union Bank's...
China AI Start‑ups Pull $16.2 B in Q1, Tripling Funding as State‑Backed Capital Chases Scale
Chinese AI start‑ups secured more than 110 billion yuan ($16.2 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, nearly three times the amount raised a year earlier. The surge, driven by large‑language‑model and embodied‑AI projects, reflects a policy‑guided shift toward capital‑intensive, scale‑oriented ventures.
Iran War Cripples Petrodollar System, Triggers Oil Shock and Inflation in Emerging Markets
The Iran‑US‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global oil flows, hitting 38 commercial ships and leaving more than 20,000 crew members stranded. The resulting oil‑price surge is eroding the petrodollar framework and feeding inflation in...
Ghana’s Central Bank Leads Digital Finance Push at ACI World Congress in Accra
The 64th ACI Financial Markets Association World Congress opened in Accra, bringing together central bankers and market leaders from emerging economies. Bank of Ghana Governor Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama used the platform to unveil the e‑Cedi’s next phase – cross‑border...
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Threatens to Push Brent to $150‑$200, Raising Alarm for Emerging Markets
U.S. officials warned that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive Brent crude to $150‑$200 a barrel, sparking a commodity shock that threatens emerging markets dependent on imported energy. India, which imports 85% of its oil, faces a...
RBI Flags Oil, Debt and Market Stress but Cites Five Pillars of Indian Resilience
The Reserve Bank of India warned that soaring oil prices, high public debt and financial‑market stress could hit emerging markets, but said India remains resilient on growth, inflation, fiscal health, banking and the external sector. The central bank noted a...
U.S. Detains Sister of GAESA Executive, Raising Stakes for Cuba’s Economy
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Thursday that ICE has taken Cuban national Adys Lastres Morera into custody and revoked her green card. Morera is the sister of Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera, the executive president of GAESA, Cuba’s military‑controlled conglomerate...
Sub‑Saharan Giants Post Over 5% Growth Since 2000
Since 2000, several large sub-Saharan African economies have grown at rates that exceed 5% annually – among the fastest rates in the world. https://t.co/aFQMvpw6QJ https://t.co/lHxnlOWCm8
Indonesia to Centralize Coal, Palm Oil and Iron Alloy Exports via New State Firm
President Prabowo Subianto announced that a newly created state-owned enterprise will take over Indonesia's exports of coal, palm oil and iron alloys by September, a move intended to curb under‑invoicing and raise an estimated $908 billion in lost tax revenue. The...
DE-DOLLARIZATION IN REAL TIME: China Down to $652B, $240B Total Treasury's Dumped in a Month, & the Mechanics of the...
Foreign central banks dumped $240 billion of U.S. Treasury securities in a single month, pulling total foreign holdings down to $9.25 trillion. China’s portfolio shrank to roughly $652 billion, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, while Japan and Turkey also accelerated...
India Will Not Become Another China
U.S. officials warn against repeating the China mistake as Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India, emphasizing that India’s rise need not mirror Beijing’s trajectory. The article argues that India’s democratic, federal structure and historical restraint differ fundamentally from China’s...
U.S. Supreme Court Awards Havana Docks $400 Million Verdict Over Cuba Expropriation
The U.S. Supreme Court issued an 8‑1 decision siding with Havana Docks Corporation, restoring a $400 million judgment against four cruise lines for using docks seized by Fidel Castro’s regime. The ruling clarifies that “confiscated property” includes a company’s usage rights, reviving...
U.S. Indicts Cuba’s Former Leader Raul Castro, Raising Stakes for Havana’s Economy
The U.S. Justice Department has charged 94‑year‑old former Cuban president Raul Castro with conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals and multiple murders tied to the 1996 downing of Brothers to the Rescue planes. Cuba’s president denounced the move as a political stunt, while Beijing...
Cuba Clash, Putin Visits Beijing, Xi May Go to North Korea
China and Russia condemned the United States on Thursday for filing criminal charges against former Cuban president Raul Castro, accusing Washington of weaponising sanctions against Havana. The U.S. indictment ties Castro and five others to a 1996 aircraft shoot‑down, while the...
Wood Mackenzie Warns Hormuz Closure Could Spark $200 Brent Shock, Hitting Emerging Markets
Wood Mackenzie’s new Horizons report warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lift Brent crude to $200 a barrel, curtail 11 million bpd of Gulf oil and 80 Mtpa of LNG, and push global growth below 1% in...
Kearney Chair Says India Is a Multi‑Decade Breakout Opportunity for Global CEOs
Bob Willen, chairman of consulting firm Kearney, told the Economic Times that India now represents a multi‑decade breakout opportunity for global CEOs. He cited the country's geopolitical balance, AI‑driven disruption and supply‑chain realignment as drivers of a new, resilient growth...
China Threatens Retaliation over New EU Tool to Curb Chinese ‘Overcapacity’
The European Commission is set to discuss an “overcapacity instrument” that would allow the EU to restrict Chinese firms from key markets such as fertilizers, medicines and rare minerals, and could require European buyers to source critical components from at...
UN Chief Says Africa Could Meet 10× Its Power Needs with Renewables by 2040
UN Secretary‑General António Guterres told global leaders in May 2026 that Africa’s renewable resources could produce ten times the continent’s current electricity demand by 2040. The remark underscores a massive investment gap – less than 3% of worldwide clean‑energy capital...
Malaysia's Trade Hits Record RM1.127 Trillion in Jan‑Apr 2026, Up 15.3% YoY
Malaysia's external trade surged 15.3% year‑on‑year to a historic RM1.127 trillion ($248 bn) in the first four months of 2026, with exports jumping 19% to RM609.31 bn. The boom, led by AI‑enabled electronics and a push into African and Eastern European markets, underscores...
Indonesian Rupiah Hits Record Low as Commodity‑Control Policy Fuels Market Anxiety
The Indonesian rupiah slid to a record 17,600 per US$1, breaking the 17,500 psychological barrier, as President Prabowo Subianto unveiled a state‑run export regime for palm oil, coal and ferroalloys. The move sparked parliamentary grilling of Bank Indonesia’s governor, calls...
The Other China Shock
The article examines the emerging "other China shock," where rising wages and tighter regulations in China are prompting multinational manufacturers to relocate labor‑intensive production to neighboring Asian economies such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico. It traces the historical pattern of...
Iran War Spurs Extreme Bear Scenarios for Asia Currencies, Bonds
The ongoing Iran‑Russia conflict is tightening global oil supplies, sending energy prices higher and straining emerging Asian economies. Analysts now model extreme bearish outcomes, projecting India’s rupee sliding to 100 per dollar, Indonesia’s rupiah to 18,000, and the Philippine peso...
China and Russia Seal Over 40 Agreements, Boosting Multipolar Trade
President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping signed over 40 agreements in Beijing, covering economics, energy, transport and a joint declaration for a multipolar world. The deals deepen trade ties worth $240 bn and shift settlements to rubles and yuan, signaling...
UN and IMF Cut 2026 Global Growth Forecasts to 2.5% and 3.1% Amid Middle East War
The United Nations and International Monetary Fund have each trimmed their 2026 global GDP growth forecasts—UN to 2.5% and IMF to 3.1%—citing the war in the Middle East, soaring energy costs and heightened inflation. The downgrade threatens emerging‑market economies that...
Indonesian President Announces Plan to Centralize Control of Key Commodity Exports
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced a plan to place Indonesia’s key commodity exports—palm oil, thermal coal and nickel—under direct state control. A new sovereign‑wealth‑backed enterprise, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, will own 99% of the export entity and exporters must deposit all...
Azerbaijan Allocates $15 Billion to Rebuild Post‑War Regions, Boosting Emerging‑Market Outlook
Azerbaijan announced a $15 billion state‑funded reconstruction plan for the liberated territories of Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur, covering 2026‑2030. The program, driven by President Ilham Aliyev, aims to rebuild cities, infrastructure and housing without relying on foreign donor aid, signalling a...
What Can Indian Policymakers Learn From China’s Growth Boom?
China’s average 9% annual growth over three decades propelled it from poverty to a per‑capita wealth five times that of India. While India has enjoyed pockets of double‑digit expansion in metros, the broader economy lags due to fragmented incentives, land‑use...
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Signals Surprise China Market Opening Amid Rising Chip‑trade Tensions
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang made a surprise appearance in Beijing, indicating an unexpected opening to the Chinese market despite escalating chip‑trade disputes. The move, timed with a high‑profile U.S.-China summit, could reshape Nvidia's growth outlook and the broader...
Brazil Market Raises 2026 Selic Forecast to 13.25% Amid Sticky Inflation
Brazilian financial markets lifted their 2026 Selic rate forecast to 13.25%, up 0.25 percentage points, after the Central Bank’s Focus survey showed inflation expectations edging above the 4.5% tolerance band. The shift reflects the impact of the Iran‑war energy shock...
No‑headline US‑China Summit Reveals Bleak Outlook for US
My latest @opinion column looks at what last week's "no headline" US-China summit told us about the bilateral relationship, and little of it is good for the US side: https://t.co/RyxTa0KLuu (🎁) https://t.co/VGS33PAZL2
Nigeria and U.S. Joint Strikes Kill 175 ISIS Fighters in Northeast
Nigeria’s military and U.S. Africa Command announced that joint operations in the northeast have killed 175 Islamic State fighters, including senior commanders. The strikes signal a deeper U.S. role in Nigeria’s fight against Boko Haram‑linked insurgents and raise questions about...
Citi Sees India Tightening Currency Controls to Halt Rupee Slump
Citigroup warns that India may tighten capital controls to stem a rupee slide that has exceeded 7% against the dollar this year. The government has already raised fuel taxes and gold import duties, and Citi sees additional steps such as...
China to Buy 200 Boeing Jets and Ease Rare Earth Curbs in US Trade Breakthrough
China announced a sweeping trade package that includes a purchase of 200 Boeing jets, a review of rare‑earth export licences for civilian use, and reciprocal tariff cuts on at least $30 billion of goods each way. The deal also restores registration...
Putin’s Two‑Day China Visit Deepens Moscow‑Beijing Ties, Shifts Eurasian Markets
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a two‑day summit with President Xi Jinping, cementing a strategic partnership that could redirect trade, energy flows and security dynamics across Eurasian emerging markets. The visit follows a U.S. presidential trip to...
Iran War Strains GCC as Saudi Arabia Shifts Toward Israel-UAE Axis
The Iran war is pulling Saudi Arabia closer to the Israel-UAE axis, straining the Gulf Cooperation Council. Senior analyst Nawaf Obaid warns the rift could reshape regional power dynamics and heighten political risk for emerging economies tied to Gulf markets.
Iran War to Slow Down India’s FY27 Economic Growth: Rating Agencies
Two rating agencies have lowered India’s FY27 growth outlook as the West Asia war drives crude oil to $95‑110 a barrel, stoking inflation and squeezing monetary policy. Icra now sees GDP expanding 6.2%, down from its earlier 6.5% estimate. India...
China's EV Ecosystem Targets Africa as Battery Minerals Drive New Partnerships
China's electric‑vehicle industry has pivoted from exporting finished cars to exporting a full ecosystem of batteries, software and charging standards, creating strategic openings for African economies. With BYD and CATL controlling 55.6% of global battery markets, the shift promises new...
India’s 4% Fuel Price Hike Fuels Rupee Slide and Market Volatility
India raised retail petrol and diesel prices by Rs 3.91 per litre (about 4.4%), the smallest increase among major economies. The move came as the rupee slumped to a fresh all‑time low near ₹96.40 per dollar and equity markets swung wildly, underscoring the...
Morgan Stanley Forecasts New Growth Cycle for India Amid Geopolitical Risks
Morgan Stanley’s latest equity strategy predicts a new growth cycle for India, driven by policy stimulus and strong consumer demand, even as the country wrestles with a $690‑$697 bn foreign‑exchange squeeze and $50 bn of foreign portfolio outflows. The bank sees India...
China Market for Nvidia AI Chips to Open 'over Time': Huang
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Bloomberg that China will gradually allow sales of its high‑end H200 AI chip, which is currently licensed but blocked by U.S. export rules. He did not meet Chinese leaders directly, but noted President Trump has...
Kenya’s Budget Stalls as IMF Tightens Bailout Conditions, Raising Debt Concerns
Kenya’s budget process stalled after IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva insisted on additional fiscal and governance reforms, leaving the country without a new disbursement. With foreign‑exchange reserves at $13.5 bn and oil prices near $95 a barrel, the impasse threatens debt...
African Space Agency Calls for $25 Billion Investment Boost at Nairobi Summit
The African Space Agency, led by Tidiane Ouattara, appealed for a surge in capital at the African Forward Summit in Nairobi, highlighting a €23 billion ($25 billion) pledge from France’s President Emmanuel Macron. The agency says private‑public collaboration is essential to scale...
Pakistan Raises $255 Million with First Panda Bond, Expanding RMB Funding Options
Pakistan issued a three‑year, RMB‑denominated panda bond worth Rmb1.75 billion ($255 million) at a 2.5% coupon, the lowest rate it has secured on a sovereign issue. The deal, over‑subscribed five‑fold, adds a cheaper financing channel and marks a test for the renminbi’s...
US Custodian Treasury Drop ≠ China’s Bond Holdings Decline
There is a bit more to the story -- Don't equate a fall in Treasuries held in US custodians with a real fall in China's holdings of US bonds https://t.co/ikBtmc32fc
Ghana Unveils Massive Clean‑Energy and Transit Plan Targeting 1,100 MW by 2035
Ghana’s Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology announced a ten‑year low‑carbon strategy that will introduce 100 MW of nuclear base‑load power, over 1,000 MW of renewable capacity and a new electric‑vehicle‑focused transit network. The plan aims to decouple the country’s growth from...
Foreign Investors Flee India, $21B Out, 2026 Worst Since 199
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Foreign portfolio investors have pulled nearly $21 BILLION from Indian equities in the last 2 months. This makes 2026 the WORST YEAR for foreign capital flows since 1993. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN HAS HIT INDIA AND ITS RUPEE HARD....