Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Global funds withdraw $18.84 bn from Indian equities, pushing Nifty down 8%
In just over three months, foreign investors pulled $18.84 bn from Indian stocks, setting a new outflow record and dragging the Nifty 50 lower by 8%. The sell‑off erased roughly $600 bn of market value, while domestic investors added $31 bn this year.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Madica invests $600K in three African startups
The Gulf states have long pursued a hedging strategy, balancing ties with the United States against the threat posed by Iran. Recent uncertainty over a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire highlights the fragility of that approach, exposing the region to heightened security risk. Analysts argue that the Gulf must abandon hedging in favor of a unified, consistent policy toward allies and adversaries. The shift is seen as essential to restore stability and protect national interests.
U.S.‑Iran negotiations slated for Islamabad are being viewed as a tactical pause while the Trump administration readies additional forces in the Persian Gulf. Open‑source logistics data suggest a surge in Marine and Airborne deployments ahead of the talks, hinting at...
Foreign direct investment into the Philippines plunged 39.2% in January, reaching $443 million – the lowest level in four months. All major FDI components posted year‑on‑year declines, with equity and fund shares down 41.1% and reinvested earnings falling 56.6%. Japan topped...
The Asian Development Bank’s April 2026 outlook lowered its Philippines GDP growth projection to 4.4% for the current year, down from the 5.3% forecast made in December. The downgrade is driven by uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and higher...
Retail investing is rapidly gaining momentum across the Middle East, driven by a young, digitally native population and strong economic growth in hubs like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The GCC digital neobrokerage market reached $1.2 bn in 2024, while government...
Before President Donald Trump launched his war on Iran, global financial markets were on an upswing and private‑sector confidence was rebounding, according to the Brookings‑FT TIGER index. The index highlighted solid growth prospects despite lingering trade‑policy volatility and high public...
Cuba announced in March 2026 that it will allow Cuban expatriates, especially those in the United States, to return, invest in the private sector and own businesses. The policy shift follows a deepening economic crisis marked by food, medicine shortages...
Ghalibaf says two conditions must be fulfilled before negotiations with the US begin: 1. A ceasefire in Lebanon 2. The release of Iran's blocked assets The blocked assets refer to tens of billions in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks under...
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East is triggering a cascade of economic shocks across Africa. Fuel prices have jumped about 50% and global fertilizer costs are up more than 40%, straining household budgets and agricultural yields. Simultaneously, African governments...
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
Wall Street’s biggest banks and private‑equity firms are deepening their Gulf foothold despite Iran’s missile attacks and a two‑week cease‑fire. Blackstone announced a $250 million private‑equity commitment, while Citi’s CEO Jane Fraser reiterated confidence in the region. Goldman Sachs is pursuing...
Management consultancy Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index shows that despite heightened geopolitical tension, 88% of surveyed firms intend to raise FDI over the next three years. Industrial policy now ranks as a decisive factor, with 84% of investors...
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) warned that Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li‑wun’s recent remarks, which framed cross‑strait relations as an internal Chinese matter, mirror Beijing’s narrative and could erode global backing for Taiwan. Cheng’s call to reject foreign intervention and...
Kenya’s central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 8.75% after ten consecutive cuts, citing rising inflation risks from higher global oil prices. Inflation edged up to 4.4% in March, while private‑sector activity contracted, ending a six‑month growth streak....
The World Bank warns that Kenya could lose up to $40 million each month in Gulf‑origin remittances as the Middle‑East conflict drags on. About 500,000 Kenyan workers are employed in Gulf construction and services, and their earnings are already slipping. The...
The Indian rupee appreciated to 92.41 per U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday, later opening at 92.57, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to curb banks' overnight dollar positions and heightened geopolitical risk in West Asia....
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
Emerging economies will drive the bulk of global energy demand growth over the next 20 years, turning them into a strategic battleground for influence. China has leveraged the Belt and Road Initiative to provide over $230 billion in concessional loans and...
Nuveen strategist Laura Cooper warns that markets are under‑pricing the escalating Iran war and its broader geopolitical fallout. She advises investors to tilt toward U.S. large‑cap technology and AI, overweight emerging markets such as South Korea and Brazil, and add...
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al‑Kaabi pledged to remain a reliable supplier of LNG and LPG to India during a two‑day visit by Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. Qatar accounts for 45% of India’s LNG imports and 20% of its LPG, making it...
Japan’s 2026 Diplomatic Bluebook downgraded its description of China from “one of the most important bilateral relations” to “an important neighboring country,” reflecting heightened tensions after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a...
Chinese firms operating in Hungary are bracing for the upcoming parliamentary election, fearing that a victory for the EU‑friendly Tisza party could bring stricter regulations, visa hurdles, or even asset seizures. Under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Budapest offered generous subsidies, tax...
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
Opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, becoming the highest‑ranking Taiwanese official to hold a face‑to‑face dialogue with Beijing since President Ma Ying‑jeou’s 2015 meeting. Both leaders reiterated opposition to Taiwan independence and framed the dispute as a cultural‑historical...
S&P Global now projects global GDP growth slowing to 3.2 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025, as the West Asia conflict generates the largest recorded energy shock. Disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to...
The Asian Development Bank raised its FY27 GDP growth projection for India to 7.3%, up 80 basis points, citing salary hikes, regulatory reforms and a new EU trade pact. At the same time, the bank warned that a protracted West...
The Reserve Bank of India’s abrupt limits on banks’ daily currency positions have forced a $30 billion unwind of arbitrage trades, sending foreign investors fleeing Indian sovereign bonds. The rupee rallied more than 2% to 92.66 per dollar, but banks face...
Oil prices surged toward the $100 mark after doubts resurfaced about the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, with Brent at $99.3 and WTI at $101.5 per barrel. Traders cite a still‑closed Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and mixed signals from...
Fitch Ratings' April 10 analysis finds Indian banks remain relatively resilient as credit pressure builds across South and Southeast Asia. The agency warns of margin compression of 20‑30 basis points and a liquidity surplus that has slipped to just 0.5%...
Uzpromstroybank reported a 36% jump in first‑quarter 2026 profit, even as its loan portfolio slipped slightly. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas raised its domestic procurement share to 93% and launched a new Register of Domestic Manufacturers, underscoring a broader...
Turkey is positioning Lebanon as a cornerstone of its Eastern Mediterranean strategy, linking economic cooperation with security objectives. President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have highlighted Lebanon’s role in shaping post‑Israel‑Hezbollah dynamics and in accessing offshore gas reserves. Ankara’s...
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire announced on April 7 triggered a 13% drop in Brent crude, pulling prices to about $93 per barrel. Oxford Economics still expects a two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by lingering disruptions, forecasting a 0.8%...
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
President Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a flurry of diplomatic back‑and‑forth. Tehran confirmed the truce but insists on a 10‑point proposal, while Washington negotiates on a 15‑point framework, accusing Iran of...
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced that the government is negotiating free‑trade agreements with at least 20 additional countries, adding to the nine FTAs signed in the past 3½ years that already cover 38 developed nations. The new round targets...
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will travel to Beijing to seal a High‑Quality Investment Agreement that obliges Chinese firms to share technology, use local suppliers and create jobs in Spain. The pact aims to address Spain’s $36.1 billion trade deficit with...
The Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for India’s FY 26 GDP growth to 6.9%, citing resilient domestic demand and the recent easing of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. The projection contrasts with the Reserve Bank of India’s more bullish 7.6%...
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
We've now reached the point where commodity exporters in Latin America are up from before the start of the war with Iran. We're getting a ceasefire, but oil prices will stay elevated for a long time. That lifts the ...
Rather large increase in the trade surplus of a couple of important Asian economies in the first quarter. Weak oil and gas import volumes in March, but mostly surging chip exports https://t.co/LP5kTo4Nfs
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
Already both the U.S. and Iran are claiming to have won the war and are negotiating about the negotiations. As explained in my recent note, it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz, which will have big implications...
Trump Quietly Scraps His Own Playbook on China The White House walks back the aggressive approach of the first administration, in a dramatic reversal Times change, leverage changes... https://t.co/emValbLeko via @WSJ
Hey @grok What emerging market or country ETF today feels like buying China in 2003 that most likely has a massive multi-year upside?
Contrary to Western propaganda, the Iranian economy DID NOT COLLAPSE prior to the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran’s growth profile is almost identical to Australia’s. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the financial press is either WRONG or...
Day 3 of the ceasefire: no movement in Hormuz (But the fragile truce seems to be holding on the ground, air and sea, despite sporadic violations, with not major attacks by either Iran or the US)
Sánchez to push China to hand over tech secrets on Beijing trip https://t.co/iSThlJP5lO via @basteiro https://t.co/gW7fldvHZn
1/2 Yicai: "China's retail sales of passenger cars declined more than 17 percent in the first quarter of the year, as new energy vehicle sales fell 21 percent following adjustments to the NEV purchase tax breaks." https://t.co/sWTFDBWjLi
China's leaders now at least give lip service to supporting domestic demand -- and sometimes even claim not to want to rely on exports for growth. But in at least one prominent sector, domestic demand is down (autos) 1/ https://t.co/jZxOmf68t9
