Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
BofA analyst sees rupee slipping to ₹98‑99 and fiscal deficit widening to 5% in FY27
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria projects the Indian rupee will fall to around ₹98‑99 within the next year. He also expects the FY27 fiscal deficit to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government's 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections, adding roughly 150 basis points to the shortfall.
How Gulf Investments Are Responding to the US-China Critical Minerals Competition
The United States is intensifying its focus on critical minerals, launching initiatives like FORGE and Project Vault to curb Chinese dominance in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Gulf sovereign‑wealth funds—UAE’s ADQ, Qatar Investment Authority, and Saudi Arabia’s PIF—are pouring billions into DRC mining and related logistics, each adopting distinct partnership models. The UAE has signed a $1.9 bn deal and joined the US‑led Orion consortium, Qatar placed $500 m in a joint venture with Chinese partner Zijin, and Saudi pledged $15 bn to global mining while favoring minority stakes. These investments intertwine commercial returns with strategic optionality, reshaping the geopolitics of the critical‑minerals race.
Kenyan Fund Manager Spearhead Plans to Raise $116 Million for Projects Fund
Kenyan fund manager Spearhead Africa Asset Management announced a new capital drive to raise 15 billion shillings (about $116 million). The proceeds will fund long‑term, local‑currency loans for infrastructure developers across Kenya. By the end of March the Spearhead Africa Infrastructure Fund...
G7 Finance Ministers Meet in Paris to Tackle War‑Driven Economic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets
G7 finance ministers gathered in Paris to coordinate policy responses to the Middle East conflict, warning that global imbalances are unsustainable and that emerging markets face heightened inflation, financing strains and critical‑mineral shortages.
US Neglect Ceded Global Trade Dominance to China
China didn't steal global trade dominance. The US handed it over. What happened between 2000 and 2025 was not a military victory or a political coup but the symptom of decline. It was WTO membership, manufacturing scale, commodity demand, and infrastructure investment...
Infrastructure Spending Drives China's Growth Target, up 4.3%
Caixin: "Infrastructure investment remained relatively resilient, rising 4.3%, supported partly by spending on new infrastructure projects." No surprise. Infrastructure spending is the main thing under Beijing's control with which to hit the GDP growth target. https://t.co/oOGHoKEAkQ
BSP Leads ASEAN+3 Push for Deeper Financial Ties Amid Global Volatility
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) chaired ASEAN+3 central banks and finance ministries in reaffirming a push for tighter financial cooperation at the 29th ASEAN+3 meeting on May 3, 2026. Leaders agreed on a three‑year disaster‑risk financing roadmap, expanded use...
Beijing Tightens Overseas Investment Oversight Amid Security Concerns
Chinese regulators have blocked Meta’s planned acquisition of AI startup Manus and imposed a fine on a domestic food company for breaching newly introduced overseas listing rules. The actions reflect a broader push by Beijing to tighten oversight of outbound...
Nigeria’s Debt Swells to N159 Trillion ($111 Bn) Amid Naira Devaluation
Nigeria’s public debt rose to N159 trillion ($111 bn) by December 2025, driven largely by a three‑fold naira devaluation and the re‑valuation of foreign‑currency liabilities. At the same time, a Federal High Court ruling overturning the Central Bank’s dissolution of Union Bank’s...
ET Graphics: BoP Stability Tested by Outflows & Rupee Fall
India’s balance‑of‑payments is under strain as the current‑account deficit widens and capital‑account surplus contracts, prompting heightened outflows. The rupee has slipped roughly 11% over the past year and about 5% since the US‑Iran conflict began, amplifying external vulnerabilities. The Reserve...
Oil Surges Past $109 as Iran Toll Threat and US Waiver Expiry Tighten Supply
Crude oil jumped above $109 a barrel on Tuesday after Iran announced tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic and the United States let a temporary Russian‑oil waiver expire. The moves have spiked import bills and inflation pressures for oil‑importing emerging...
India Taps Oman to Rescue $11.8 Billion Food Exports to West Asia
India is turning to Oman’s ports and land corridors to sustain its $11.8 billion annual food export pipeline to West Asia after the Strait of Hormuz became impassable. The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority has been negotiating with...
Zambia’s 2‑MW Solar‑by‑Constituency Plan Serves as Blueprint for Kenya’s Energy‑Poverty Fight
At a Nairobi parliamentary forum, Zambia’s senior research officer Slyvester Kaonga unveiled a government‑backed scheme to build 2‑megawatt solar plants in each of the country’s constituencies, turning local communities into power producers. Delegates see the model as a template for...
Malaysia’s Overland Logistics Hubs Projected to Add 3.8% to GDP and Create 12,000 Jobs
Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link and the new Perlis Inland Port are expected to lift the nation’s GDP by 3.8% and create 12,000 jobs, while providing an alternative land route to the Strait of Malacca. The projects could expand the...
Intra‑BRICS Merchandise Trade Reaches $1.17 Trillion in 2024, Signaling Deepening Integration
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal announced that intra‑BRICS merchandise trade hit $1.17 trillion in 2024, a thirteen‑fold increase from 2003. The surge, still only about 5% of global trade, highlights untapped potential for deeper integration among emerging economies.
Finance Chiefs to Consider World Order After Trump-Xi Reset
Global finance ministers gathered in Paris for a G‑7 meeting that follows President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. French President Emmanuel Macron framed the agenda around correcting three core imbalances: the United States’ soaring budget deficit, Europe’s...
FTAs, Lower Import Duties, Better Business Environment to Boost Net FDI Flows: ADB Chief Economist
India’s net foreign direct investment has slumped from $38.6 billion in 2021‑22 to just $3 billion in the April‑December period of FY 26, prompting concerns about capital outflows. ADB chief economist Albert Park attributes the decline to high tariffs, limited industrial infrastructure, and...
BRICS Foreign Ministers Split in New Delhi Over Iran-UAE Rift, No Joint Statement
The BRICS foreign ministers’ summit in New Delhi concluded without a joint communiqué after Iran and the United Arab Emirates exchanged public accusations over the ongoing Middle‑East conflict. The deadlock also stalled broader calls for reform of the international financial...
IMF Lauds Hong Kong’s Resilience but Flags Middle East War Risks
The International Monetary Fund praised Hong Kong’s surprisingly robust post‑COVID rebound, but warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East could drag its GDP growth down to 2.4% this year. The IMF urged fiscal reforms, including a goods‑and‑services tax,...
AirJoule Secures Exclusive GCC Deal to Deploy Water‑Generation Tech Across Six Emerging Markets
AirJoule Technologies announced an exclusive distribution partnership with TenX Investment covering Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. The deal positions the company to address water scarcity in the Gulf, leveraging its Core DH system that delivers up to...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Raising Questions on Cartel Unity and Oil Market Stability
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC, prompting analysts to warn of a potential fracture in the cartel and heightened uncertainty for global oil supplies. The move coincides with heightened geopolitical tension in the Gulf and new energy...
China’s State Banks Hold $1.5 Trillion, Eclipsing Japan’s Reserves
The net foreign asset position of China's state banks (in both dollars and RMB) is now $1.5 trillion -- a rather big sum (close to 1/2 China's formal reserves, a sum bigger than Japan's reserves ... ) 1/ many https://t.co/Rd90nZTcgw
Ebola Outbreak in Eastern DRC Claims 65 Lives, Over 240 Suspected Cases
The Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed a fresh Ebola outbreak in Ituri province, reporting 65 deaths and 246 suspected cases. The virus, identified as the Bundibugyo strain, lacks an approved vaccine, prompting urgent cross‑border containment efforts.
NNPC Deploys $1.5‑Tesla MRI in Nigeria, Boosting Healthcare in Emerging Market
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) installed a 1.5‑Tesla MRI at Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital, a move that could transform diagnostics for millions in the South‑East. The donation underscores NNPC’s broader CSR push amid its 365,000‑bpd production, highlighting the...
Trump‑Xi Summit Seeks Stability Amid Ongoing Disagreements
Five Takeaways From the Trump-Xi Summit—Both sides want to stabilize U.S.-China relations, but disagreements remain @hannahmiao_ @Kubota_Yoko https://t.co/6VYzkbTZoV https://t.co/6VYzkbTZoV
Trump and Xi Claim ‘Fantastic Trade Deals’ in Beijing Summit, Implications for Emerging Markets
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced they concluded ‘fantastic trade deals’ during a summit in Beijing, covering agriculture, aviation and AI, and pledged cooperation on the Strait of Hormuz. The statements, made without detail, have drawn attention...
Schneider Electric Unveils Next‑Gen Battery Storage System in India
Schneider Electric announced a fully integrated cell‑to‑grid Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) at its Innovation Summit in India, positioning the solution as a finance‑ready asset for utilities and developers. The launch targets India's fast‑growing renewable power sector, where storage is...
Pakistan and the Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing for a super‑power summit reshaped by the Iran‑U.S. conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Both sides pledged tighter communication on regional security and economic stability, signaling a potential...
Gunshots Echo in Philippine Senate as ICC Warrant Targets Senator Dela Rosa
Gunfire erupted inside the Philippine Senate on May 13, 2026, after an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa was unsealed. Lawmakers were locked down, security forces clashed, and officials vowed to investigate the source of...
Trump Says He Didn’t Discuss Extending Tariff Truce With Xi
President Donald Trump told reporters he did not discuss extending the U.S.-China tariff truce during his May 15 meeting with Xi Jinping, even though trade ambassador Jamieson Greer said the two sides explored a “Board of Trade” that could cut...
China’s Q1 Surplus Lifts Four‑quarter Total to $750bn
China's $184 billion q1 current account surplus pushed the surplus over the last 4qs of data to $750b -- a sum well short of the just under $1.2 trillion goods surplus/ what the surplus should be, but still a very...
Xi Warns Trump Taiwan Dispute Could Spark Conflict, Raising Stakes for Emerging Markets
Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump that the Taiwan issue is the most critical flashpoint in bilateral ties and that mishandling it could trigger clashes. The warning came during a private two‑hour meeting in Beijing on May...
Trump Aims to Defy Gravity with Beijing Friendship Summit
President Trump and Xi Jinping concluded a staged friendship summit in Beijing, highlighted by a private tour of Zhongnanhai and public praise of each other's agendas. Trump claimed China pledged to purchase 200 Boeing jets, commit at least $10 billion in...
Turkish Central Bank Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast to 26% and Keeps All Policy Tools Open
Turkey’s central bank lifted its year‑end 2026 inflation forecast to 26%, up from a 15‑21% range, and said all monetary‑policy options remain on the table. The revision reflects higher oil prices, rising import costs and persistent food‑price pressures linked to...
Ghana’s Central Bank Pays $1.4 Billion in Interest to Keep Inflation at 3.4%
The Bank of Ghana disbursed GH¢16.73 billion (about $1.4 billion) in interest to commercial banks in 2025 to sterilise excess liquidity, a cost that consumed roughly 75% of its operating income. The expense comes as inflation has dropped to 3.4% and the...
India Moves to Buffer Economy Against Iran War Fallout
India’s government announced a series of measures to shield the economy from the spill‑over effects of the Iran‑Israel conflict. State‑run refiners lifted gasoline and diesel prices by more than 3%, the first hike in four years, after crude prices surged....
CMA CGM Commits $800 M to Mombasa Port as Africa Forward Summit Widens Investment Agenda
France’s CMA CGM announced an $800 million investment to modernise Kenya’s Port of Mombasa during the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi. The pledge, part of more than $1 billion in bilateral deals, marks a strategic pivot away from a purely Francophone focus toward...
China Will Work Behind the Scenes to Help Reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Bessent Says
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will use its influence over Iran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blockaded since early March. The closure has halted about 20% of global crude oil flows, creating the...
Qatar Boosts Economic Resilience with LNG Expansion and Global Investment Push
Qatar is strengthening its economic resilience by raising North Field LNG output to 126 million tonnes per year and accelerating overseas investments through the Qatar Investment Authority, targeting technology assets in the United States, Europe and Asia. Analysts say the sovereign...
A Defining Moment for Central Asia
Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund is set to launch an IPO that could reshape investor perception of Central Asia. The fund manages $2.4 billion in assets and is being valued at $1.95 billion, roughly a 20 % discount to book. Proceeds are expected to...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Redrawing Oil‑Market Power and West Asia Security
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, ending its adherence to collective output limits. The move gives Abu Dhabi the freedom to boost production, but it also threatens price stability and adds a new...
Bulls Bet Big on These Three China-Related Stock Trades During Trump Visit
During President Trump’s Beijing visit, market bulls placed large bets on three China‑related trades. Alibaba surged 8% despite an earnings miss, lifting the iShares China Large‑Cap ETF (FXI) 2.5%. Ford jumped 13% after a Morgan Stanley note highlighted its energy‑storage...
Trump Invites Xi to Washington in September
President Donald Trump announced an invitation for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan to visit the White House on September 24. The invitation was made public during a banquet in Beijing, where Trump described the upcoming summit...
Asian Stocks Split as Trump‑Xi Summit Fuels Commodity Rally and Tech Optimism
Asian equity markets ended the day mixed after President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for a three‑day summit with President Xi Jinping. Oil prices edged higher on supply worries, while Chinese chip exports jumped 84% YoY, boosting tech‑linked shares across...
Xi Urges US‑China Leaders to Defy Thucydides Trap
Xi's opening remarks ask whether China and the US can avoid the Thucydides Trap: "These are questions of history, of the world, and of the people. They are also the defining questions of our time that you and I, as...
Ghana Shifts Gold Trade to UAE, Targeting Value‑Chain Gains
Ghana is redirecting its gold exports from traditional European hubs to the United Arab Emirates, leveraging Dubai's tax‑free regime, logistics, and refining capacity to move up the value chain. The shift, which accelerated after 2015, signals a strategic re‑orientation for...
Asia’s Tech Boom Clashes With Oil‑Price Surge, Raising Global Risks
Asia is experiencing a stark split as tech‑driven economies post record profits and all‑time stock highs while an oil‑price shock driven by the Iran war pushes energy costs to four‑year highs, threatening growth in energy‑dependent nations.
Donald Trump Vows to Push Xi to ‘Open up’ China
U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for the first presidential visit in nearly a decade, pledging to ask Chinese President Xi Jinping to “open up” the Chinese market to American firms. The trip featured a high‑profile entourage of tech...
Trump Faces High-Stakes Meeting with Xi
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing with senior officials and leading CEOs, setting the stage for a high‑stakes Thursday meeting with Xi Jinping. The White House signaled openness to Chinese direct investment in U.S. manufacturing, even as the Iran war...
Cantor8 Partners with Yiksi to Tokenise M‑PESA and EVC Plus Across Africa
Cantor8 announced exclusive memoranda of understanding with Yiksi Limited and fintech platform Taran App to bring Kenya’s M‑PESA and Somalia’s EVC Plus onto its Canton blockchain. The pilot targets low‑banked markets, promising faster settlement and crypto conversion for millions of mobile‑money...
What to Expect From the U.S.-China Summit
In this brief episode, Ariana Salvatore of Morgan Stanley outlines modest expectations for the U.S.-China Summit in Copenhagen, noting that discussions will likely center on trade, Taiwan arms sales, and the Iran conflict rather than sweeping policy shifts. She anticipates...