Can China Control North Korea?

Why It Matters

Whoever influences Pyongyang—particularly China—shapes the prospects for denuclearization, regional stability, and US‑ROK security calculations; ambiguous messaging from Beijing complicates prospects for coordinated pressure or diplomacy. Clearer Chinese engagement or a Xi visit could materially alter the trajectory of North Korea policy and crisis risk on the peninsula.

Summary

China and the US confirmed they discussed North Korea during the recent Trump‑Xi summit, with Washington’s readout explicitly using “denuclearization” and referring to North Korea rather than the broader Korean Peninsula—language that surprised analysts given Beijing’s usual preference for peninsula‑wide framing. Xi’s possible imminent trip to Pyongyang, his first since 2019, underscores Beijing’s pivotal role in managing Pyongyang and signals China’s delicate balancing between pressure and preservation of ties. Adam Farer, a former White House Korea director, warned that China’s public posture has shifted in recent years and that Beijing’s willingness to press Kim Jong‑un remains constrained by strategic and regional considerations. The episode highlights growing complexity in trilateral dynamics among China, the US and North Korea, and the limits of great‑power coordination on denuclearization.

Original Description

In this episode of Pekingology, CSIS Senior Fellow Henrietta Levin is joined by Adam Farrar, who previously served as Special Advisor to the Vice President for the Indo-Pacific, Space, and Intelligence as well as Director for the Korean Peninsula and Mongolia at the White House National Security Council. Adam is currently a Senior Geoeconomics Analyst at Bloomberg and Non-Resident Senior Associate with the CSIS Korea Chair.

As Xi Jinping prepares for a rare trip to Pyongyang, Henrietta and Adam unpack China’s complex relationship with North Korea. They discuss what the Trump-Xi summit revealed about Beijing’s position on denuclearization, how much leverage China actually has over Pyongyang, and why Kim Jong Un keeps creating problems for Xi. The conversation also explores how Beijing balances its desire for stability on the Korean Peninsula with Moscow's growing influence there, and what all of this means for U.S. strategy in Asia.