China Tries to Build Sand Bases, Again || Peter Zeihan
Why It Matters
China’s renewed sand‑island project underscores aggressive territorial ambitions while risking massive waste of defense funds, influencing regional security calculations and future naval deployments.
Key Takeaways
- •China resumes artificial island construction in the South China Sea.
- •New Parasel island will be larger but built on unstable sand.
- •Past islands settled, runways failed within five years.
- •Xi’s inner circle lacks dissenting advisers, driving costly projects.
- •Potential military utility doubtful; risk of wasted resources persists.
Summary
Peter Zeihan reports that China has restarted artificial island building in the South China Sea, focusing on a larger sand base in the Paracel archipelago after a seven‑year hiatus. The project revives a pattern of dredging sand and coral to create land, despite the region’s shallow, unstable seabed.
Zeihan notes that earlier islands settled and cracked within a few years, rendering runways unusable and hangars unsafe. The new, bigger island will likely suffer the same fate, but Chinese planners seem convinced that scale will solve the engineering flaws. He attributes the renewed effort to President Xi’s insulated decision‑making circle, which lacks advisers willing to challenge costly, strategically dubious ventures.
The analyst cites vivid examples: runways on previous islands became inoperable after five years, and Xi’s inner circle now operates on “rancid propaganda” without dissent. Zeihan’s tone mixes sarcasm with concern, even quipping that he’s buying popcorn to watch the outcome.
If the new base proves structurally unsound, China will have poured substantial resources into a non‑functional military asset, signaling aggressive territorial claims while exposing strategic miscalculations. The move could heighten regional tensions and force neighboring navies to reassess force postures in an already contested waterway.
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