The Strategic Implications for Regional and Global Politics of the Venezuelan Crisis | LASC 2026

Why It Matters

The United States’ coercive strategy in Venezuela will determine whether the crisis fuels a democratic transition or deepens regional instability, directly affecting energy markets, migration flows, and the balance of great‑power influence in the Western Hemisphere.

Key Takeaways

• US military operation intensifies pressure on Maduro regime
• Venezuela’s power shift may produce new opposition leader Delgado Rodríguez
• US policy prioritizes interests over values, using coercive tools
• Goal: displace Russian and Chinese influence in Venezuelan oil sector
• Regional stability hinges on managed transition to avoid civil conflict

Summary

The LASC 2026 panel examined the Venezuelan crisis as a flashpoint for regional and global geopolitics, focusing on the surprise U.S. military operation dubbed "Operation Southern Spear" and its rapid escalation in early January. Panelists traced how the strike, described as a "Bruce Lee‑type move," signaled a new phase for the Maduro regime, now dominated by a triad of figures—Delgado Rodríguez, Cabello and General Vladimir Padrino—who appear poised to re‑brand themselves as a future opposition.

Key insights highlighted the United States’ strategic calculus: a clear preference for hard interests over abstract values, the use of proactive coercive statecraft, and a willingness to act unilaterally when multilateral institutions pose risks. Washington’s objectives span democratic change, curbing Russian and Chinese footholds in Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, and addressing migration, drug trafficking, and energy security. The panel noted that the U.S. sees Venezuela’s oil and mineral wealth as a strategic asset to deny adversaries access to the Western Hemisphere.

Notable remarks underscored the complexity of the transition. Carlos Solar likened the military buildup to a "sumo warrior" and warned that Delgado Rodríguez may negotiate an amnesty to retain political relevance. Brian emphasized that successive administrations—Biden and Trump—share the same core interests, differing only in timing and tactics. The discussion also referenced historical analogues such as South Africa’s post‑apartheid shift and Chile’s 1990s democratization to illustrate potential pathways.

The implications are profound: a managed Venezuelan transition could reshape Latin American power dynamics, limit China‑Russia influence, and stabilize a region plagued by migration flows and narcotics trafficking. Conversely, a chaotic collapse risks civil war, further refugee crises, and a vacuum that rivals could exploit, making the U.S. approach a pivotal factor in the hemisphere’s future stability.

Original Description

What is the short-term future of the regime? What are the foreign policy implications for the hemisphere in managing Venezuela’s crisis? What is the next phase for US regional policy and how are Western Hemisphere security dynamics evolving amid shifting global interests? How can Europe and the UK respond?

Speakers:

Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute

Major General (ret) Dustin A. Shultz, former Director of Intelligence at U.S. Southern Command

Dr Brian Fonseca, Director Jack D Gordon Institute, Florida International University

Richard Kouyoumdjian, Executive Vice Chairman, AthenaLab

Chair: Fiona Clouder, former UK Regional Ambassador to Latin America and Distinguished Fellow, RUSI

Recorded at RUSI, 61 Whitehall, London on 29 January 2026