Confidence in Carney’s Pipeline Promise Sinks: Energy Industry Survey

Key Takeaways

• Confidence in fast‑track pipeline approval fell to 46% (down from 52%).
• Support for Liberal government's energy expansion rose to 48%, up from 37%.
• Proposed West Coast pipeline could move 1 million barrels daily to Asian markets.
• Project hinges on unresolved carbon‑capture Pathways plan and higher carbon pricing.
• Alberta aims to submit formal pipeline proposal to Ottawa this year.

Pulse Analysis

The latest ATB Cormark Capital Markets poll underscores a growing scepticism among Canadian energy executives about the federal government’s willingness to fast‑track a new oil pipeline. While 46% of respondents still believe the project could be designated as nationally significant, that figure marks a six‑point drop from the previous summer’s 52%. The decline reflects frustration over the pace of regulatory approvals and lingering uncertainty around the policy levers needed to make the project financially viable.

Investors are watching the numbers closely because the proposed West Coast pipeline, capable of moving up to one million barrels per day, would shift a substantial portion of Canada’s crude exports from the United States to Asian markets. Such a shift could diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on the U.S. market, but the pipeline’s economics are tied to the Pathways carbon‑capture initiative and a higher industrial carbon price—both still under negotiation. The lack of clear timelines adds risk premium to financing, potentially slowing capital deployment and affecting the broader energy services sector.

Looking ahead, the modest rise in confidence that the Liberal government will back sector growth—48% of respondents now say the government will actively support expansion—offers a counterbalance to the approval doubts. Stakeholders should monitor the upcoming Alberta proposal, the finalization of carbon‑capture funding, and any adjustments to Canada’s carbon pricing framework. These variables will determine whether the pipeline moves from concept to construction, influencing North‑American oil trade dynamics and Canada’s ability to meet its climate commitments while sustaining industry investment.