Exclusive: Where We’re At in the Race to Save the Planet

Key Takeaways

• Tracker now uses Climate TRACE data, raising emissions estimate to 74 Gt.
• Targets shifted to absolute numbers, e.g., 600 million EVs by 2035.
• Six of 52 key results on track, including clean‑energy jobs lead.
• Seven ‘code red’ sectors—methane, steel, buildings—show minimal progress.
• Revised outlook deems 1.5°C unlikely, 2°C still achievable with ambition.

Pulse Analysis

The original Speed & Scale plan, launched five years ago, quickly became a reference point for climate‑focused entrepreneurs and investors. Its early success lay in a simple, percentage‑based framework that highlighted sectoral ambitions such as electrifying transport and decarbonizing the grid. However, the rapid evolution of AI‑driven power demand, shifting geopolitics, and more granular emissions data forced a rethink. By integrating Climate TRACE’s satellite‑derived measurements, the tracker now paints a more precise picture of emissions sources, revealing a 25 % higher global total and exposing previously undercounted methane leaks and wildfire impacts.

The updated tracker also redefines success metrics. Absolute targets—like over 600 million electric vehicles on the road by 2035—replace vague percentages, making progress easier to quantify for venture capitalists and corporate strategists. This shift aligns with the broader adoption of OKR (Objectives and Key Results) methodology, a framework Doerr famously introduced at Google. Coupled with the Climate Tech Map, co‑developed with Breakthrough Energy and Stanford, the new tool directs capital toward high‑impact innovation frontiers, from low‑carbon steel production to advanced methane capture, offering a clearer roadmap for the next wave of climate tech investments.

Despite these advances, the tracker flags stark challenges. Seven “code‑red” sectors—methane emissions, building heating and cooling, livestock, and heavy industry—remain largely stagnant, collectively accounting for over 3 gigatons of CO₂e annually. The revised outlook concedes that limiting warming to 1.5 °C is now improbable, though a 2 °C pathway remains within reach if political will and financing intensify. For business leaders, this signals a pivot: prioritize scalable technologies in hard‑to‑abate sectors, lobby for supportive policies, and allocate capital to the few key results already on track, such as the surge in clean‑energy jobs that now outnumber fossil‑fuel positions.