Gazprom Exports to the EU Jump 21% Y/Y in March as Hormuz Crisis Tighten LNG Supply

Key Takeaways

• EU gas storage at 27.7% capacity, lowest since 2022
• Gazprom March exports to EU rose 21% YoY
• TTF price jumped to $17.9/MMBtu in March
• JKM‑TTF spread widened to $2/MMBtu, shifting carriers to Asia

Pulse Analysis

Europe entered 2026 with gas storage at a precarious 27.7% of total capacity, a level not seen since the 2022 winter low. The shortfall forced utilities and governments to lean heavily on imported gas, especially from Russia, to keep the lights on. While the storage dip raised alarm bells, the continent managed to avoid a crisis thanks to existing contracts and strategic drawdowns, underscoring the importance of diversified supply arrangements in a market still recovering from pandemic‑induced demand swings.

Against this backdrop, Gazprom increased its March deliveries to the EU by 21% compared with the same month last year. The rise reflects both contractual obligations and a tactical response to the Hormuz Strait tensions that have choked off a portion of the global LNG flow. By offering Russian pipeline gas at competitive terms, Gazprom capitalised on the supply gap, temporarily easing Europe’s storage deficit while reinforcing Moscow’s leverage over the continent’s energy mix.

The price dynamics tell a complementary story. The Dutch TTF benchmark leapt to $17.9 per MMBtu, a 60% jump from February, while Asian JKM prices surged to $18.3 per MMBtu. The resulting $2 spread made Asian markets more attractive, prompting a wave of LNG carriers to divert from Europe. This shift not only tightens European spot markets but also signals a longer‑term re‑balancing of global LNG trade routes, with implications for future contract negotiations, investment in liquefaction capacity, and the geopolitical calculus surrounding energy transit corridors.