Global Gas Prices Diverge as Asian LNG Strengthens While European and US Benchmarks Ease

Why It Matters

The divergence highlights regional supply‑demand imbalances that will shape LNG trading flows and influence pricing strategies for utilities and traders worldwide.

Key Takeaways

• Asian LNG spot prices rose to low‑$11/MMBtu
• European TTF fell to $11/MMBtu amid milder forecasts
• US Henry Hub slipped to $3/MMBtu on soft demand
• Japan’s LNG inventories rose 0.11 Mt, supporting demand
• EU gas storage at 31% below seasonal average

Pulse Analysis

Asian gas markets are tightening as the JKM benchmark climbed back into the low‑$11/MMBtu zone after a brief retreat during the Lunar New Year. Unplanned outages at Japan’s coal‑fired plants forced utilities to secure additional LNG, while South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand also increased spot purchases. The shift of cargoes originally destined for West Africa and Australia toward Europe further constrained regional supply, reinforcing price gains and signaling a short‑term bullish outlook for Northeast Asian LNG traders.

In Europe, the TTF price decline to $11/MMBtu reflects a confluence of factors. Milder weather forecasts reduced near‑term demand, and a surge in LNG imports bolstered supply. Progress in U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks eased geopolitical risk premiums, though a temporary cold snap and a Norwegian facility outage briefly lifted prices. With EU gas storage at 31%—well below the five‑year average—market participants remain vigilant, balancing inventory concerns against the prevailing soft demand environment.

Across the Atlantic, the US Henry Hub slipped to $3/MMBtu, driven by abundant domestic production and a warm weather outlook that dampened consumption. Inventories fell 144 Bcf week‑on‑week, yet remain only modestly below historical norms, keeping the market comfortably supplied. The brief dip into the $2/MMBtu range, the first since 2025, underscores the market’s sensitivity to weather swings. These dynamics collectively influence global LNG cargo allocations, as exporters weigh higher Asian premiums against softer European and US pricing.