BNP Election Win Could Reshape Bangladesh's Energy Mix

Why It Matters

The agenda promises to reduce Bangladesh’s reliance on imported fuels, reshape regional energy trade, and position the country as a growing clean‑energy market.

Key Takeaways

• BNP aims 20% renewable power by 2030.
• Proposes 5 Mt/yr refinery, tripling current capacity.
• Offshore exploration to curb rising LNG imports.
• Central carbon market targeting $1 bn annual revenue.
• Expands cross‑border pipelines and electricity imports.

Pulse Analysis

Bangladesh’s political shift signals a strategic pivot in its energy landscape. The BNP’s 20% renewable target aligns with global decarbonisation trends, yet achieving it will require massive solar and wind investments amid rapidly rising demand. By committing to a sizable refinery expansion, the party seeks to capture value from crude imports while reducing diesel dependency, a move that could recalibrate trade balances with neighboring oil‑product exporters. This dual focus on domestic refining and renewable growth reflects a nuanced approach to energy security.

The proposed 5 million‑tonne refinery will more than triple the nation’s processing capability, potentially lowering diesel imports and creating a hub for regional fuel distribution. Simultaneously, the pledge to intensify offshore oil and gas exploration aims to offset the steep rise in LNG imports—7.15 million tonnes in 2025—by unlocking indigenous hydrocarbon resources. While development timelines remain uncertain, successful offshore projects could stabilize supply, lower import costs, and provide feedstock for the new refinery, reinforcing Bangladesh’s position in South Asian energy markets.

Beyond production, the BNP plans to launch a centralized carbon‑trading platform targeting $1 billion in annual revenue, a bold step toward formalising climate finance. Coupled with waste‑to‑energy initiatives and expanded cross‑border pipelines, these policies could deepen integration with India, China, and other regional partners. The combined effect promises not only a greener power mix but also enhanced energy resilience, attracting foreign investment and positioning Bangladesh as a pivotal player in the emerging South Asian clean‑energy corridor.

BNP election win could reshape Bangladesh's energy mix

By Keertiman Upadhyay · 13 Feb 2026 10:46 GMT

Mumbai, 13 February (Argus) — The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) appears to have won a strong majority in the country's parliamentary elections, clearing the way for a broad restructuring of Bangladesh's energy and resources policy centred on reducing import dependence, expanding refining capacity and accelerating renewable power.

BNP secured a parliamentary majority in the 13th national polls, according to provisional results reported by local media today, with party chief Tarique Rahman expected to lead the formation of the next government. The election marks a return to an elected government following the 2024 removal of the Awami League administration and an interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus.

A core pledge in the party's manifesto is to raise the share of renewable energy in the power mix to 20 % by 2030. Renewable generation currently accounts for only low single‑digit percentages of total output, based on recent government power‑sector data, with gas — including imported LNG — remaining the dominant fuel in electricity generation.

The target implies a substantial scale‑up in solar and other clean capacity over the next five years, at a time when Bangladesh's power demand continues to grow alongside industrial activity.

In refining, BNP has proposed building a phased 5 million t/yr (100,000 b/d) refinery in the Chittagong area, which is a key port hub. Bangladesh currently operates about 1.5 million t/yr of refining capacity at its sole refinery, based on data from state‑owned oil firm BPC. The expansion, if executed, would significantly alter the country's refined‑product trade balance, potentially reducing imports of diesel and other fuels while increasing crude import requirements. Bangladesh imports oil products from India, China, Malaysia and Singapore, among other sources.

The party has also pledged to fully utilise offshore blocks and strengthen partnerships with foreign firms to boost upstream oil and gas exploration. Domestic gas output has been declining in recent years, according to official energy statistics, leading to an increase in LNG imports to meet power and industrial demand. An offshore push could, over time, moderate LNG import growth, although development timelines remain uncertain. Bangladesh imported 7.15 million t of LNG in 2025, up from 5.83 million t in 2024, according to data from trade‑analytics firm Kpler.

BNP's manifesto further calls for a review of rental power plants, capacity charges and gas‑tariff structures. Any restructuring could affect dispatch patterns and fuel procurement, including LNG‑purchasing strategies.

On climate policy, the party has proposed launching a centralised carbon‑trading market targeting $1 bn/yr in revenue. Bangladesh does not currently operate a formal domestic compliance carbon market, based on existing regulatory frameworks. BNP has also outlined plans for waste‑to‑energy projects in cities and ports.

BNP has additionally pledged to expand regional energy connectivity, including pipelines and broader cross‑border cooperation. Bangladesh already imports electricity from India under existing bilateral agreements, based on power‑sector data.