Iraq and UAE Race to Establish Alternative Oil Pipelines as Exports Through Hormuz Dry Up

Why It Matters

The shift reshapes global oil logistics, reducing reliance on a chokepoint that has become a geopolitical flashpoint and influencing supply‑side dynamics for the world energy market.

Key Takeaways

• Iraq plans to triple Kurdistan‑Turkey pipeline to 770,000 bpd.
• Iraqi oil accounts for 53% of its 2025 GDP.
• Exports fell to 10 million barrels in April, down from 93 million.
• UAE fast‑tracks West‑East pipeline, aiming to double ADNOC capacity by 2027.
• Regional pipeline capacity remains far below pre‑war 20 mb/d Hormuz flow.

Pulse Analysis

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced oil‑dependent exporters to rethink their logistics. Historically, the narrow waterway handled roughly 20 million barrels per day, but war‑related restrictions have driven traffic to historic lows. With vessels facing the risk of Iranian attacks or U.S. sanctions, producers in Iraq and the UAE are scrambling to secure overland alternatives that can sustain revenue streams and meet global demand.

Iraq’s answer is a rapid expansion of the Kurdistan‑Turkey pipeline network. By boosting capacity from 220,000 to 770,000 barrels per day, the country hopes to offset the steep decline in Hormuz exports—down to 10 million barrels in April from 93 million pre‑war. Oil already represents more than half of Iraq’s GDP, so the pipeline is not just an infrastructure project but a lifeline for fiscal stability. Yet the venture must navigate complex Kurdish‑Turkish negotiations and secure financing amid a volatile regional environment.

The United Arab Emirates is pursuing a parallel strategy with its West‑East pipeline to Fujairah, slated for 2027 operation. Doubling ADNOC’s export capacity will give the emirate a more resilient export corridor, leveraging the Fujairah terminal that survived earlier attacks. While the combined regional pipeline capacity of 3.5‑5.5 million barrels per day still trails pre‑war levels, these projects signal a broader shift toward diversified, land‑based oil routes that could reshape supply patterns and reduce the strategic leverage of the Hormuz chokepoint.