Kazakhstan Thermal Coal Production Falls in Jan

Why It Matters

The production dip highlights short‑term supply constraints, but the ambitious capacity expansion and output targets signal Kazakhstan’s intent to cement its role as a key thermal‑coal supplier to Europe, affecting global coal pricing and logistics.

Key Takeaways

• Jan thermal coal output fell 1.7% YoY.
• New projects demand extra 16 Mt annually.
• Bogatyr Komir targets 56.5 Mt by 2032.
• Kazakh coal sold at $8‑10/t API 2 discount.
• Icy Baltic conditions shift shipments to larger vessels.

Pulse Analysis

Kazakhstan remains a pivotal player in the global thermal‑coal market, even as its January output slipped modestly. The 1.7% YoY decline to 9.92 million tonnes reflects seasonal factors and logistical bottlenecks, yet the country’s overall coal production stayed above 10 million tonnes. This modest contraction occurs against a backdrop of robust 2025 figures—115.9 million tonnes, a 6.5% increase—underscoring the sector’s resilience and the government’s commitment to maintaining supply stability for domestic power generation.

The government’s national coal‑fired generation project, targeting an additional 7.6 GW of capacity by 2030, will drive demand for roughly 16 million tonnes of coal each year. Private heavyweight Bogatyr Komir’s aggressive ramp‑up to 45.2 million tonnes this year, and eventually 56.5 million tonnes by 2032, aligns with these expansion goals and positions the firm to meet both domestic and export needs. Such scale‑up not only supports Kazakhstan’s energy security but also offers European buyers a reliable alternative amid tightening emissions regulations and shifting geopolitics.

In European markets, Kazakh coal is being priced at an $8‑10 per tonne discount to the API 2 benchmark, reflecting competitive pricing strategies to retain market share. However, severe winter conditions in the Baltic Sea have disrupted traditional shipment routes to Poland, prompting a shift from 5,000‑10,000 tonne vessels to larger 30,000‑tonne ships. This logistical adjustment may limit the number of Polish importers but also underscores the importance of flexible supply chains. As European winter demand remains high, the combination of discounted pricing and expanded capacity could solidify Kazakhstan’s foothold in the region’s coal landscape for years to come.

Kazakhstan thermal coal production falls in Jan

By Shreyashi Sanyal · 19 Feb 2026 17:49 GMT

London, 19 February (Argus) — Kazakhstan's thermal coal production fell by 1.7 % year‑on‑year to 9.92 million t in January, a slow start to 2026, but could receive a boost as the country plans major coal‑sector projects for the year.

Coal production, including coking coal, dipped by a marginal 0.7 % year‑on‑year to 10.31 million t in January, according to data from the National Statistics of Kazakhstan.

The decrease in coal production comes even as the country ramps up efforts to boost its coal sector, including drafting a national project for expanding coal‑fired generation through to 2030, adding about 7.6 GW of new and modernised capacity.

Kazakhstan's thermal‑coal‑fired power plants averaged consumption of about 55 million t/yr in 2023‑24, according to previously disclosed figures from the energy ministry. Going forward, the new projects will require an additional 16 million t/yr of coal.

Bogatyr Komir, Kazakhstan's largest private‑sector coal producer, plans to increase output from this year to 45.2 million t and up to 56.5 million t/yr through to 2032. The producer operates the country's largest Ekibastuz mine, which has reserves of 2.4 billion t.

Kazakhstan produced 115.9 million t of thermal coal in 2025, about 6.5 % higher on the year as consumption grew steadily last year.

Kazakh coal offered at discounts in Europe

Northwestern European buyers were heard to have received Kazakh‑origin coal offers at wide discounts to the buoyant benchmark European API 2 index, market sources said, while icy weather conditions disrupted some shipments to Poland recently.

Kazakh‑origin NAR 5,850 kcal/kg minimum coal was heard offered at an $8‑10/t discount to the API 2 to some German buyers as of last week, market participants said. A German trader was heard to have received an undisclosed volume of 0‑8 mm‑sized coal of Kazakh origin from a Polish seller by rail, according to sources.

Icy conditions at Baltic Sea ports have recently disrupted flows of Kazakh coal into Poland. Smaller 5,000‑10,000 t vessels, which are usually the standard import size for Polish buyers of Kazakh coal, were not suitable for transit in the snowy conditions.

This has shifted import sizes to larger 30,000 t vessels, limiting the number of Polish traders that would import Kazakh material, a supplier said. Poland's extended wintry conditions have ramped up consumption and depleted stockpiles rapidly and are likely to keep demand steady and buyers eager to replenish stocks even after the winter.