NERC Overstates Reliability Risks in Long-Term Assessment: Grid Strategies

Why It Matters

An overstated reliability outlook can skew policy, prompting unnecessary fossil‑plant extensions or rushed new builds, while a calibrated view supports efficient investment in renewables and transmission.

Key Takeaways

• NERC’s LTRA assumes 90 GW data‑center growth by 2030
• Grid Strategies cites excess load forecast due to double‑counting
• Interconnection‑queue projects could close most seasonal shortfalls
• Non‑firm regional power flows exceed NERC’s interregional assumptions
• Overly pessimistic outlook may delay retirements and spur new builds

Pulse Analysis

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2025 Long‑Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) has become a reference point for utilities and regulators, yet Grid Strategies argues that its demand assumptions are inflated. The report attributes a 90 GW surge in electricity use to data‑center expansion, a figure that ignores recent chip shortages, transformer bottlenecks, and the possibility of double‑counting loads already accounted for in regional studies. By projecting a 160 GW total demand increase by 2030, NERC paints a picture of tightening resource margins that may not reflect the evolving economics of the AI‑driven data‑center market.

Grid Strategies also highlights gaps in NERC’s supply‑side modeling. The LTRA counts only projects with firm interconnection agreements, omitting a substantial pipeline of resources currently in interconnection queues—wind, solar, and storage that have historically progressed to operation. Moreover, the assessment relies on firm, contractual interregional power flows, while real‑time “non‑firm” imports and exports routinely exceed those contracts during peak events, as demonstrated by the 13 GW import during Winter Storm Uri. Incorporating these flexible flows and queued projects would alleviate most of the seasonal adequacy shortfalls identified by NERC.

The divergence between NERC’s pessimistic outlook and Grid Strategies’ more optimistic scenario carries concrete policy consequences. An overstated reliability risk can justify delaying retirements of aging fossil plants or accelerating approvals for new generation, potentially crowding out cost‑effective renewable investments. Conversely, a calibrated forecast that recognizes interregional transmission capacity and queued renewables can guide targeted infrastructure upgrades and more accurate market signals. Stakeholders—from federal regulators to utility executives—must demand greater transparency in load forecasting and a broader view of flexible resources to ensure that reliability planning aligns with the grid’s actual trajectory.