Sasol Optimistic of Market Demand for Natref’s Premium SAF and Renewable Diesel

Why It Matters

Certified low‑carbon fuels give Sasol a revenue‑generating pathway in a market tightening around sustainability mandates, while helping South African heavy‑industry customers mitigate carbon‑border risks.

Key Takeaways

• Natref certified SAF and renewable diesel meet ISCC+ standards
• Certified fuels cut GHG intensity by over 75% versus crude
• Initial production targets: 2 M litres 2026, 16 M litres 2027
• Potential to allocate up to 15% refinery capacity to HEFA fuels
• Sasol explores vegetable‑oil feedstock from mined land and wood‑chip gasification

Pulse Analysis

The certification of Natref’s sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel marks a pivotal shift for Sasol, positioning the South African energy group to tap into the fast‑growing SAF market. Airlines worldwide are under pressure to meet stricter carbon‑offset mandates, and premium pricing for verified low‑carbon jet fuel creates a lucrative niche. By leveraging used cooking oil—a readily available feedstock—Sasol can produce SAF with a GHG intensity of just 22 g CO₂‑eq/MJ, dramatically lower than the 94 g CO₂‑eq/MJ of conventional jet fuel, offering airlines a clear emissions‑reduction pathway.

Beyond aviation, Sasol’s renewable diesel targets the mining and logistics sectors, which face looming carbon‑border levies in Europe and other markets. The company’s strategy to dedicate up to 15% of Natref’s 108,000‑barrel‑per‑day capacity to hydro‑processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) fuels could provide a domestic source of low‑carbon diesel, reducing reliance on imported bio‑fuels and supporting South Africa’s broader decarbonisation agenda. Early production is modest—2 million litres in 2026 and 16 million litres in 2027—but the roadmap envisions scaling toward 200 million litres by decade’s end, contingent on market uptake.

Sasol is also extending its low‑carbon portfolio at the Secunda complex, where bio‑ethanol‑derived chemicals have earned certification and green‑hydrogen projects are under study. While EU rules currently bar power‑to‑liquid SAF from accessing the mandatory blend market, ongoing diplomatic talks could unlock future demand. By integrating vegetable‑oil feedstocks from degraded mining land and exploring wood‑chip gasification, Sasol aims to turn legacy assets into sustainable revenue streams, reinforcing its position against green‑washing accusations and showcasing a pragmatic pathway for heavy‑industry players navigating the energy transition.