South Africa Set to Run Coal Stations Longer as Gas Projects Lag

Why It Matters

Extending coal operations jeopardizes South Africa’s decarbonisation targets, inflates import‑dependent fuel costs, and sustains pollution‑related health risks, while threatening grid reliability.

Key Takeaways

• Eskom may keep 7.4 GW of coal capacity past 2030.
• Six gigawatts of gas plants delayed by legal and supply issues.
• Gas turbine deliveries from Siemens and GE face five‑year backlog.
• Prolonged coal use risks higher pollution deaths and climate goals.
• South Africa's IRP25 hinges on on‑time gas project completion.

Pulse Analysis

South Africa’s power sector sits at a crossroads. The nation still derives about 80% of its electricity from coal, and its Integrated Resource Plan 2025 envisioned a gradual phase‑out of 8 GW of coal capacity by 2030, replaced by 6 GW of gas‑fired generation. However, legal disputes, financing gaps and a five‑year delivery backlog for turbines from Siemens and General Electric have stalled the gas projects, leaving Eskom with a shortfall that forces it to consider extending the life of aging coal plants.

The operational implications are stark. Keeping roughly 7.4 GW of coal online beyond its design life means higher fuel‑import bills, as South Africa must purchase natural gas on the global market, and increased exposure to volatile commodity prices. Moreover, the health externalities are significant: communities near coal stations already suffer elevated mortality from particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. Extending coal use also undermines the country’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, potentially attracting scrutiny from international investors and climate‑focused financing institutions.

Regionally, South Africa’s predicament diverges from trends in China and India, where coal consumption in power generation is finally declining. The delay highlights the challenges of transitioning large, coal‑dependent economies without a reliable, domestically sourced alternative. Policy options include accelerating renewable‑energy deployment, fast‑tracking carbon‑capture projects like the Leandra research site, or renegotiating gas contracts to secure timely deliveries. How the government and Eskom navigate these choices will shape South Africa’s energy security, emissions trajectory, and economic stability for the next decade.