TC Energy Tops Q4 Profit Estimate on Strong U.S. Natural Gas Demand

Why It Matters

The results highlight accelerating U.S. gas demand, boosting TC Energy’s cash flow and justifying further infrastructure investment, which could reshape North American energy markets.

Key Takeaways

• EPS $0.72 beats $0.68 consensus
• US pipeline flows up 9.5% YoY
• Record delivery 39.9 Bcf on Jan 29
• Canadian deliveries hit 33.2 Bcf record
• EBITDA up 13% YoY, earnings 15% rise

Pulse Analysis

The United States is experiencing an unprecedented surge in natural gas consumption, propelled by three converging forces: the rapid expansion of data‑center capacity, accelerated coal‑to‑gas conversions for cleaner power, and robust LNG export activity. These trends have lifted daily pipeline volumes to near‑record levels, with TC Energy’s U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines delivering 29.6 Bcf/d in Q4—a 9.5 % year‑over‑year increase. Analysts see this demand curve as a catalyst for higher freight rates and tighter market fundamentals, reinforcing gas as a cornerstone of North American energy security. Against this backdrop, TC Energy posted earnings per share of US $0.72, comfortably surpassing the consensus forecast of $0.68, and generated a 13 % rise in comparable EBITDA. The company’s pipeline network set all‑time delivery records, moving 39.9 Bcf on a single day in late January and 33.2 Bcf across its Canadian system. Such operational efficiency translates into stronger cash flow, supporting dividend sustainability and providing capital for upcoming expansion projects aimed at the Midwest power corridor. Looking forward, TC Energy’s commitment to augmenting critical infrastructure—particularly storage facilities and flexible interconnections—positions it to capture additional market share as U.S. power demand continues to climb. The firm’s strategic focus on enhancing system flexibility aligns with regulatory incentives for reliability and decarbonization. Investors should monitor the pipeline capacity build‑out and potential tariff adjustments, which could further boost earnings visibility and reinforce TC Energy’s role as a key conduit in the continent’s evolving gas landscape.

TC Energy Tops Q4 Profit Estimate on Strong U.S. Natural Gas Demand

By Charles Kennedy · Feb 13 2026, 10:30 AM CST

TC Energy Corporation beat analyst estimates for fourth‑quarter profits amid soaring demand for natural gas in the United States, which boosted its pipeline flows to an all‑time delivery record early this year.

TC Energy on Friday reported earnings per common share from continuing operations at US $0.72 (C$0.98), beating the average consensus estimate of US $0.68 (C$0.92).

TC Energy’s deliveries on the Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines averaged 27.2 Bcf/d, up 5 % compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, and set a new all‑time delivery record of 33.2 Bcf on January 22 2026.

U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines’ daily average flows were 29.6 Bcf/d, a 9.5 % jump compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Following the end of the reporting quarter, TC Energy’s U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines achieved an all‑time delivery record of 39.9 Bcf on January 29 2026, the company said.

Deliveries to U.S. LNG facilities averaged 3.9 Bcf/d, up 21 % on the year, and set a new daily record of nearly 4.4 Bcf on December 4 2025.

In addition, TC Energy achieved all‑time delivery records on the Columbia Gulf, GTN, and Gillis Access gas pipelines in December 2025.

“Strong asset availability and reliability drove a 13 percent year‑over‑year increase in fourth‑quarter comparable EBITDA and a 15 percent increase in segmented earnings over the same period,” said François Poirier, TC Energy’s president and CEO.

“In the fourth quarter 2025 and early 2026, record power demand from data centres, coal‑to‑gas conversions and LNG exports drove all‑time delivery records across our U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Pipeline Systems of 39.9 Bcf and 33.2 Bcf, respectively,” Poirier added.

TC Energy also moved to expand critical infrastructure projects “to respond to rising power generation demand in the U.S. Midwest, strengthening system flexibility and reinforcing the long‑term value of our storage portfolio,” the executive said.