Trump’s Energy Dominance Clashes with Soaring Bills at Home

Why It Matters

Rising export‑driven gas demand threatens U.S. household and industrial energy bills, turning a core energy‑dominance policy into a potential electoral liability.

Key Takeaways

• LNG exports rise to 18.1 Bcf/d by 2027.
• Domestic gas demand pressures residential and power prices.
• AI‑driven data centers boost gas‑fired electricity consumption.
• Higher Henry Hub prices could reach $4.9/MMBtu by 2035.
• Midterm voters may penalize Trump over rising energy bills.

Pulse Analysis

The Trump administration’s aggressive push for energy independence has turned the United States into the world’s leading LNG exporter. Recent Energy Information Administration data show shipments jumping 25 % in 2025 and projected to exceed 18 Bcf/d by 2027. New export terminals and expanded capacity in the Haynesville, Appalachia, and Permian basins underpin this growth, while policy incentives keep the sector buoyant. This export boom aligns with broader geopolitical goals, securing market share in Europe and Asia, but it also reshapes the domestic gas landscape.

Domestically, the surge in feed‑gas demand is colliding with a power sector hungry for flexible, low‑carbon generation. AI‑driven data centers and onshored manufacturing are driving a 2 % annual rise in electricity consumption, much of which will be met by natural gas. Consequently, wholesale day‑ahead electricity prices have risen, and residential bills are feeling the pinch as Henry Hub benchmarks climb. Exporters can absorb higher prices because overseas contracts fetch roughly double the domestic rate, leaving U.S. consumers to shoulder the cost.

The political ramifications are stark. As midterm elections approach, voters confronting higher utility bills may view the administration’s energy agenda skeptically, despite its success in boosting production and export revenues. Long‑term forecasts from Wood Mackenzie suggest a 40 % jump in domestic gas demand over the next decade, pushing average prices toward $4.9/MMBtu by 2035. Policymakers will need to balance export ambitions with mechanisms to protect consumers, such as strategic reserves or targeted subsidies, to avoid a backlash that could undermine the broader energy strategy.

Trump’s Energy Dominance Clashes with Soaring Bills at Home

By Irina Slav · Feb 19 2026, 5:00 PM CST

• Record LNG exports are boosting U.S. gas demand, with shipments expected to rise from 15 Bcf/d last year to 18.1 Bcf/d by 2027.

• Surging LNG feed‑gas demand and AI‑driven power consumption are pushing prices higher.

• Higher gas prices could become a political risk, as export growth may raise domestic costs ahead of the midterms.

The Trump Administration could face an energy dilemma ahead of the midterm elections. The U.S. energy‑dominance agenda and booming LNG exports – pillars of the Administration’s policy – are boosting domestic natural‑gas demand and raising American energy bills.

U.S. LNG exports are hitting record highs, and are set to continue setting records in the coming months and years as new plants are being commissioned, built, and approved, with the strong backing of the Trump Administration.

However, soaring demand for feed‑gas from the export facilities is putting upward pressure on residential gas prices in the United States and on power prices, too, since the power sector is the top domestic gas consumer. Industry is the second‑largest user of natural gas, while feed‑gas for LNG exports has now climbed to third, having outpaced residential gas use in recent years.

Record Gas Output, Soaring LNG Exports

The U.S. is estimated to have exported 15.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG last year, up by over 25 % from 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short‑Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

LNG exports are set to continue rising to an annual average of 16.4 Bcf/d this year, and further up to 18.1 Bcf/d in 2027, per the EIA’s estimates.

Higher natural‑gas demand and prices are set to incentivize more drilling in the gas‑directed shale basins (Haynesville and Appalachia), while associated‑gas output from the Permian basin’s oil production is also set to rise as the increasing gas‑to‑oil ratio (GOR) will drive natural‑gas production growth despite wobbling oil prices.

As a result of these factors, total U.S. natural‑gas production is set to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, the EIA reckons.

U.S. natural‑gas marketed production will increase by 2 % to average 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and then further rise by another 1 % to a record‑high 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027, according to the administration. The Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville basins will drive this production growth.

So far, so good. Higher prices will drive higher production, which, in turn, could ease the upward pressure on gas and electricity prices.

However, the modest supply increase faces soaring feed‑gas demand from LNG export facilities and surging demand for gas‑fired generation to meet the power‑hungry Big‑Tech firms and their plans to accelerate data‑center build‑out.

The U.S. sees unprecedented power‑demand growth—AI infrastructure, data centers, and advanced manufacturing are driving the first meaningful growth in U.S. power consumption since the 1990s. The growth is set to average about 2 % each year over the next decade, making new electricity‑generation capacity critical to supporting the advance in AI and the onshoring of manufacturing.

And natural gas would play a critical role in meeting part of this increase in power generation.

“Natural gas will benefit significantly from the rising electricity demand and the requirement for 24/7 uninterrupted supply. It is most flexible among all energy sources and an abundant domestic resource,”

— Goldman Sachs, report (2025)

With steadfast support and favorable pro‑fossil‑fuel policies of the Trump Administration, gas will be a winner in the U.S. power‑demand surge.

Structurally Higher Gas Prices

But the more prominent role of gas would drive higher prices, which are already filtering down to wholesale and consumer prices.

Average wholesale day‑ahead electricity prices at most major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states rose in 2025 compared to 2024, driven largely by higher natural‑gas prices to electric generators, the EIA says.

The rising energy bills will not see relief, at least not this year, as booming LNG exports are intensifying competition for America’s domestic gas output.

Exporters can afford higher benchmark gas prices in the U.S. more easily than other domestic consumers, because the LNG export price at which they sell their cargoes abroad is currently about double the Henry Hub price, Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire argues.

The continued growth in LNG exports could further tighten gas supply for U.S.-based consumers, including industry, power generators, and residential customers.

This could be a thorny issue for the Trump Administration in the midterm elections, as retail customers could vote with their wallets and express dissatisfaction that they haven’t seen President Trump’s campaign promise to “slash energy bills” fulfilled.

Beyond the near‑term prospects of U.S. natural‑gas demand and prices, long‑term projections are not in favor of the U.S. consumer, either.

According to Wood Mackenzie, the LNG export growth and the data‑center boom will boost U.S. gas demand by nearly 40 % in the next 10 years, lifting domestic Henry Hub prices to an average US $4.9/MMBtu (≈ 15 € / MWh) in the 2030‑2035 period. This would be an almost 50 % jump compared to 2025 levels, WoodMac noted, concluding:

“Effectively, US LNG supply growth will come at a cost to US consumers and benefit those in Europe.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com