USA Says VEN Oil Output Can Climb 30-40 Pct This Year

Why It Matters

A surge in Venezuelan production could ease tight global supply, supporting higher oil prices while offering U.S. firms a foothold in a once‑dominant oil exporter. The policy also signals a broader U.S. strategy to use energy diplomacy to counter geopolitical risks.

Key Takeaways

• US grants licenses to Western firms for Venezuelan oil
• Output could rise 300‑400k barrels daily this year
• Increase equals ~one‑third of global demand growth
• Debt‑to‑equity swaps proposed to settle Venezuela obligations
• Higher Venezuelan supply may support near‑six‑month‑high prices

Pulse Analysis

The United States' decision to grant operating licenses to a select group of Western oil firms marks a decisive shift in its Venezuela policy. After years of crippling sanctions that halved Venezuelan output since 2017, the new permits aim to unlock dormant fields and attract foreign capital. By allowing companies to navigate the legal and financial complexities of the Venezuelan market, Washington hopes to jump‑start an industry that once supplied a fifth of global oil, while also leveraging energy ties to reinforce broader diplomatic objectives.

From a market perspective, the projected 300,000‑400,000 barrel‑per‑day increase could offset a sizable portion of the anticipated 2026 demand growth, which analysts estimate at roughly one million barrels daily. This additional supply arrives as oil prices hover near six‑month highs, buoyed by geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Russia. Investors are watching whether Venezuelan output can materialize quickly enough to temper price volatility, especially as OPEC+ balances production cuts with the need to maintain revenue streams. The boost also diversifies the global supply base, reducing reliance on traditional producers and potentially reshaping trade flows.

Strategically, the U.S. is pairing the licensing initiative with innovative debt‑resolution mechanisms, such as converting Venezuela's billions in arrears into equity stakes for participating firms. This approach not only mitigates financial risk for investors but also aligns with President Trump's "energy dominance" agenda, which seeks to secure stable supplies while weakening adversarial influence in the energy sector. If successful, the plan could set a precedent for leveraging energy assets to achieve diplomatic goals, positioning the United States as a pivotal player in the evolving geopolitics of oil.

USA Says VEN Oil Output Can Climb 30-40 Pct This Year

By Bloomberg · Grant Smith, Nayla Razzouk · Thursday, February 19, 2026 · 9:47 AM EST

Image by NatanaelGinting via iStock

The Trump administration recently issued licenses allowing a handful of Western oil firms to operate in Venezuela.

Venezuela can bolster oil production by 30 % to 40 % this year, an increase of roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

There’s “enormous” interest among companies seeking to enter the Latin American country, Wright said in an interview in Paris, where he was attending the ministerial meeting of the International Energy Agency. Such a boost would equate to about a third of global oil‑demand growth this year, he added.

The Trump administration recently issued licenses allowing a handful of Western oil firms to operate in Venezuela. The U.S. is trying to stimulate the nation’s oil industry and revive its economy following the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro earlier this year. The country’s oil production has fallen by about half since 2017, when Washington first imposed financial sanctions on the country.

ConocoPhillips has previously said it prefers to recoup the billions it’s owed by Venezuela rather than drilling new wells. Wright said that a range of “creative deals” could help resolve the situation, such as converting those debts into equity ownership.

Oil prices are trading near a six‑month high in London amid concern that President Trump could attack OPEC‑member Iran to contain its nuclear program. Prices have also been buoyed by an array of supply disruptions, including the impact of U.S.-led sanctions on Iran and Russia.

Wright said that Trump’s pursuit of “energy dominance” — including growing domestic production and rebuilding alliances in the Middle East and beyond — has freed U.S. foreign policy from some of the concerns over energy prices that have constrained it in recent decades.

A short‑lived “blip” in oil prices during last year’s 12‑day conflict between Israel and Iran — in which the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear facilities — is a good illustration of the changed dynamic, he added.