Driving Discussions: The New Map of Global Refining

The global refining map has been redrawn as Asia, the Middle East and Africa pour billions of barrels of new capacity into the market. China and India alone have nearly doubled their throughput since 2005, while Europe and North America have shed more than 7 million barrels per day of CDU capability, driven by higher carbon costs, energy price spikes and waning fossil fuel demand. This competitive shift forces legacy European plants—many built in the mid‑20th century—to confront newer, 500‑600 k bpd mega‑refineries that operate at lower cost and higher complexity.

These structural changes ripple through product trade routes. Diesel demand in Europe has fallen in step with refinery closures, keeping imports stable, whereas jet fuel imports have surged, making the continent heavily reliant on Middle‑East and Asian supplies. Gasoline surplus now faces a shrinking export market as West African mega‑refineries, like Nigeria’s Dangote, satisfy local demand. The resulting margin pressure is especially acute for Atlantic‑basin refiners, whose higher operating costs make them vulnerable during demand soft‑spots.

To navigate this volatile landscape, Argus has introduced the Refined Products Outlook and Refinery Gate Values (RGV) tools, offering granular visibility on capacity additions, closures, and optimal crude‑gate economics. These services help stakeholders assess where new capacity is emerging, anticipate shifts in product flows, and price complex crude grades against processing costs. Looking ahead, modest capacity additions are expected through 2030, with India poised as a key growth driver, while post‑2030 projects remain uncertain. Companies that leverage these intelligence platforms will be better positioned to adapt to the evolving refining geography.