Stop Heating Texas Like It’s 1985 (with Kurt Heim)

Winter storms repeatedly expose a fundamental weakness in Texas’ power system: the widespread reliance on electric resistance heating. When temperatures dip, each kilowatt of electricity is converted directly into a kilowatt of heat, forcing millions of homes to become massive space heaters. The result is a sharp, grid‑wide demand surge that can rival summer peaks, as highlighted by the recent Uri, Heather, and Fern events. Analysts estimate that more than two million residences collectively add roughly 12 GW of load during cold snaps, creating the anxiety that Texans feel each winter.

Heat pumps offer a dramatically different approach by moving heat rather than generating it. Modern units achieve a coefficient of performance of two to four, meaning they provide two to four units of heat for every unit of electricity consumed. Variable‑speed models further extend this advantage, modulating compressor speed to maintain comfort even at sub‑freezing temperatures without relying on backup resistance elements. A Daikin pilot in Houston’s Fifth Ward demonstrated a 50 % reduction in heating demand after swapping resistance heaters for heat pumps, confirming the technology’s potential to slash peak loads and lower consumer bills.

The implications for grid reliability and economics are profound. Reducing the 12 GW winter load eases pressure on ERCOT, curtails the need for costly emergency generation, and frees capacity for emerging demands such as data centers and AI workloads. Policymakers and utilities can target the 85 % of multifamily buildings still equipped with resistance heaters as low‑hanging fruit, leveraging incentives and building‑code updates to accelerate retrofits. As Texas anticipates a doubling of peak demand in the next decade, widespread heat‑pump adoption could become a cornerstone of a more resilient, affordable, and sustainable energy future.