Tuesday: Oil Price Rises After New Trump Threats

Donald Trump’s warning that Iran’s energy and water infrastructure could be struck within 24 hours sent Brent crude up about 2% to $111 a barrel and WTI to $113. The geopolitical flare‑up coincided with U.S. non‑farm payrolls surging 178,000 in March, far above forecasts, while average hourly earnings slowed to a five‑year low of 3.5% annual growth. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to look through the temporary energy shock, keeping the path open for rate cuts later in the year despite the headline price jump.

In Australia, the latest housing data reveal a nuanced picture. Prices in Sydney and Melbourne stalled, reflecting a broader slowdown in high‑value properties, yet building approvals exploded nearly 30% in February, driven by a more than 100% rise in private unit and townhouse permits, especially in Victoria. The ANZ team notes that while the RBA still perceives a tight labour market, the looming Middle East conflict could dampen demand, and rising construction costs may curb future approvals. Meanwhile, trade figures posted the strongest surplus since July 2025, buoyed by higher commodity export prices.

Across the Pacific, South Korea’s March inflation ticked up to 2% year‑on‑year, primarily due to a sharp rise in petroleum product prices. Government fuel‑price controls, however, capped the impact, preventing a larger headline surge. The episode underscores how geopolitical shocks, labour‑market dynamics, and policy interventions intertwine to shape global commodity prices and regional housing trends, offering investors a clearer lens on risk and opportunity in volatile markets.