Global Gas Power Nearing Peak as Solar and Batteries Surge

Why It Matters

As gas loses its baseload role, investors and governments must reassess LNG projects and accelerate renewable investments to meet decarbonization targets and avoid stranded assets.

Key Takeaways

• Global gas‑powered electricity share fell for fifth consecutive year.
• Solar growth outpaced gas by 17‑times, adding 30% versus 0.6%.
• China and India keep gas under 3% of power mix.
• U.S. gas generation declined last year despite data‑center demand.
• Gas plants shifting from baseload to peaking/balancing roles worldwide.

Summary

Amber Energy’s new report argues that global electricity generation from natural gas is approaching its peak, as solar and battery storage capture the bulk of new demand. The analysis, presented by analyst Mel Gorscha, examines 25 years of data and highlights a five‑year streak of declining gas‑share in 2025.

Gas‑generated power grew only 0.6% year‑over‑year, while solar output surged 30%, a 17‑fold difference. The United States, which supplied 26% of global gas generation last year, actually saw a dip in gas output, and four of the seven G7 economies have already passed their gas‑generation peaks.

Asia illustrates the trend: China’s gas share sits at roughly 3% and India’s at 2%, both relying on imports for industrial uses rather than power. In many markets, gas plants now operate at low capacity factors—11‑15% in India, about 30% in China—functioning more as peaking or balancing resources than baseload.

The shift has major implications for investors and policymakers. LNG export ambitions, such as Canada’s projected 500% increase by 2035, face diminishing demand, while the urgency to curb methane leaks—over 3% leakage makes LNG more polluting than coal—adds regulatory pressure and accelerates the transition to renewables.

Original Description

Canada plans to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 500% by 2035. But what if global demand for gas-fired electricity is already nearing its peak?

In this interview, Ember Energy analyst Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka explains why gas generation growth is slowing worldwide, why solar is capturing most new electricity demand, and what that could mean for LNG exporters like Canada.

We discuss:

• Why global gas generation has declined relative to electricity demand growth

• How solar grew 17 times faster than gas in 2025

• Why China and India are relying more on clean energy than natural gas

• Europe's post-Ukraine shift away from gas dependence

• The changing role of gas plants as balancing and peaking resources

• Whether the world could reach peak gas demand before 2030

• What these trends mean for Canada's LNG export strategy

If Ember's analysis is correct, Canada may be expanding LNG exports into a global market that is changing much faster than many policymakers expected.

#Canada #LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyTransition #SolarEnergy #Electricity #China #India #Europe #EnergyMarkets #ClimatePolicy #EmberEnergy