We Have No War, We Have No Peace, and We Have No Flows: Strategist

Why It Matters

The stalemate keeps a key oil transit chokepoint closed, heightening price volatility and prompting firms to adjust supply chains and investment strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Ceasefire talks progress but no guarantee of Hormuz oil flows
• Trump’s “shoot‑to‑kill” stance may delay, not resolve, negotiations
• Market sees “no war, no peace, no flows” causing price uncertainty
• Brent benchmarks react to headlines, while physical markets stay steadier
• Declining onshore stock draws signal looming structural oil market strain

Summary

The interview centers on the stalled cease‑fire between Israel and Hezbollah, its impact on President Trump’s push to end the Iran‑related conflict, and the resulting uncertainty over oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

While the cease‑fire is a positive signal, analysts stress that without a concrete agreement the strait remains closed, keeping supply tight. Trump’s “shoot‑to‑kill” warning to Iranian vessels adds pressure but may also entrench positions, delaying any resumption of flows. Market pricing reflects this limbo: Brent reacts sharply to diplomatic headlines, whereas physical benchmarks stay comparatively stable.

As one strategist put it, “we have no war, we have no peace, and we have no flows,” underscoring the three‑fold deadlock. The panel highlighted dwindling on‑shore stock draws as the first tangible sign that inventories are eroding and a structural shortage could soon emerge.

Continued blockage could force oil prices higher, tighten LNG markets, and compel shippers to seek alternative routes, reshaping global energy trade and prompting investors to reassess risk exposure.

Original Description

Aldo Spanjer, head of energy strategy at BNP Paribas Markets 360 joins Squawk Box Europe to discuss the war in Iran, the impact on the energy markets, and when the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.