EnergyMiningSupply Chain

Why Iranian Oil Could Be the Biggest Energy Story of the Decade, with Aditya Saraswat

Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy•May 27, 2026

Why It Matters

The conflict’s impact on Gulf production and logistics reshapes global oil supply, forcing investors to reassess risk, infrastructure resilience, and long‑term growth opportunities in the Middle East’s evolving upstream sector.

Key Takeaways

  • •12 million barrels per day of production currently shut down.
  • •Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity drives conflict resolution prospects.
  • •UAE and Saudi pipelines mitigate over two‑thirds production loss.
  • •Gas recovery may take up to five years due to LNG damage.
  • •Offshore expansion and unconventional projects become region’s new growth engine.

Summary

The podcast examines how the Iran‑U.S. conflict reshapes upstream dynamics across the Gulf, featuring Ryad Energy’s Aditya Saraswat. He frames the war’s trajectory around Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, arguing that all other diplomatic moves are secondary to a durable resolution on that issue.

Saraswat quantifies the disruption: roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude and 14 million barrels of liquids are offline, alongside 85 million tonnes of LNG capacity. Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq bear the brunt, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia rely on bypass pipelines—COP and the east‑west route—to limit production cuts to about a third of pre‑conflict levels. Iran initially profited from premium pricing but now faces storage constraints as its output falls.

Key remarks highlight that “logistics, not geology, will make or break recovery,” and that offshore development is the “new onshore” as onshore fields age. The UAE’s exit from OPEC and its aggressive brownfield and greenfield expansions underscore a strategic pivot toward resilient export routes and higher output.

The fallout implies a staggered return to normal: oil could rebound by year‑end, but gas recovery may stretch three to five years, demanding $60 billion of additional investment beyond the region’s $120 billion annual baseline. Diversified infrastructure, domestic EPC capacity, and offshore/unconventional projects will be crucial for investors and global energy security.

Original Description

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/3PEAT8X
Let’s Talk Energy and evaluate the long-term implications of the Middle East war on the region’s oil and gas industries. The disruptions from the war are being felt across the globe daily, but the longer-term impacts on the region could be even more significant. In the near-term, countries will work to repair damaged infrastructure and restart delayed projects, while pushing ahead with plans to expand capacity. Looking ahead, upstream dynamics in the region have already changed following the departure of the UAE from OPEC and further shifts are likely as countries navigate a complex economic and geopolitical climate.
+ Has the war between the US and Iran changed the outlook for the upstream industry in the Middle East, and how long could it take to bring back shut production?
+ How are countries around the Gulf pursuing options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and just how much oil and gas could find alternative ways to market?
+ Will this experience change the way international and national oil companies from outside the region look at investment there as they seek to replenish their own dwindling reserves?
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Further Analysis :
- Gulf war leaves $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment crunch (available to non-clients): https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/gulf-war-repair-bill-supply-chain-equipment-crunch
- UAE’s first post-OPEC move – Double the Hormuz bypass by 2027 (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/716281?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_716281
- Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (available to non-clients): https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/asias-energy-buyers-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place
- Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (available to non-clients): https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/asias-energy-buyers-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place
- Iraq lands surprise Qurnain frontier oil prize amid Middle East shut-ins (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/716259?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_716259
- Western majors’ Middle East portfolios take hit from Gulf crisis (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/698337?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_698337
- Friction to fracture: UAE cuts free of OPEC – who wins, who loses, who’s next? (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715173?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_715173
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Related Episodes
- How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey: https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-the-middle-east-war-is-reshaping-asias-upstream-strategy
- Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons: https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/could-middle-east-conflict-break-energy-supply-chains
- Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson: https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/middle-east-escalation-and-scramble-of-lng
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🎙️Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.
Produced by: Elliot Busby & Både Og.
Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.
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