Why Vladimir Putin Is the Real Winner of the Iran War | DW News

Why It Matters

The waiver temporarily restores billions of dollars to Russia, strengthening its war‑financing capacity and exposing cracks in the transatlantic sanctions unity that underpins Ukraine’s defense and global energy security.

Key Takeaways

• US waiver lets sanctioned Russian oil ship, boosting Putin’s revenues.
• Russian oil earnings doubled to $19 billion in March.
• Discount on Russian crude vanished, turning into premium.
• Waiver signals softer US stance, undermining transatlantic sanctions unity.
• Europe urged to maintain pressure despite US policy shift.

Summary

The United States announced a one‑month waiver permitting the sale of Russian oil already at sea, a move framed as a response to rising oil prices triggered by the Iran‑related conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. DW News interviewed energy experts Robin Mills and Benjamin Schmidt to assess the policy’s impact on Russia and the broader sanctions regime.

Mills highlighted that Russian oil revenues jumped from just under $10 billion in February to about $19 billion in March, effectively doubling earnings. The waiver lifts the discount that Russia previously offered to buyers like India, turning it into a premium, while roughly 100 million barrels—worth around $10 billion—are now free to move to customers. Higher global oil prices, easing of U.S. sanctions, and India’s urgent need for non‑Gulf supplies all contributed to the surge.

Mills asserted, “Absolutely Russia comes out as the big winner,” and Schmidt warned the measure “blunts the weapon” of the transatlantic sanctions framework, granting Moscow a month‑long windfall that could fund its war in Ukraine. The waiver was reversed within 48 hours of Treasury Secretary Besson’s earlier denial, underscoring policy confusion in Washington.

The episode signals a softening U.S. stance that threatens the cohesion of sanctions against Russia, complicates Europe’s effort to wean itself off Russian energy, and provides Moscow with additional financial resources. European policymakers are urged to sustain pressure despite the temporary relief granted by the United States.

Original Description

The US Treasury has quietly extended its pause on Russian oil sanctions, just days after Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent ruled it out. Energy analyst Robin Mills says this makes Russia "THE big winner" of America's war against Iran. Former US State Department energy security advisor Benjamin Schmitt told DW that the waiver is the “sort of measure” he would always have recommended against.

Chapters:

00:00 US issued new waiver to buy sanctioned Russian oil

00:33 Robin Mills, non-resident fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy

00:44 Does the waiver make Vladimir Putin the biggest beneficiary of the US-Iran war?

01:11 How significantly have Russian oil revenues risen in recent weeks?

02:07 What are the key drivers pushing Russian revenues higher at the moment?

03:08 What does the timing of the waiver say about US decision making?

05:03 Europe spent years trying to wean itself off Russian energy. Does it have a say?

05:55 How should European governments react?

06:38 Benjamin Schmitt, former US State Department energy security advisor

07:02 What difference does this waiver make for the world economy?

09:13 How much of a difference does it make for Moscow?

10:18 Does the waiver torpedo the whole sanctions framework?

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