S&P: Local TV to Earn $4 Billion in Political Ad Spending in 2026

Why It Matters

The influx of political dollars provides a critical revenue cushion for broadcasters amid softening traditional ad markets, and reshapes the competitive dynamics among station groups vying for both linear and digital inventory.

Key Takeaways

• Political ad spend tops $4 billion in 2026, 16.3% of broadcast revenue
• Linear TV retains roughly half of political ad dollars despite CTV growth
• Sinclair leads with 26 swing‑state stations; Nexstar and Gray each have 23
• Gray, Nexstar, Sinclair each project $25‑30 million Q1 political ad sales
• S&P projects local political TV revenue approaching $5.27 billion by 2036

Pulse Analysis

The 2026 political advertising cycle is reshaping the economics of local broadcast television. With more than $4 billion projected to flow into political spots, the spend now accounts for 16.3% of total broadcast revenue – the highest share seen in a midterm year. Competitive gubernatorial contests, open congressional seats and high‑stakes Senate battles in swing states are fueling early and prolonged campaign activity, prompting advertisers to allocate larger budgets to local TV to reach decisive voters.

While connected TV (CTV) is the fastest‑growing channel for political messaging, linear television remains a cornerstone, expected to absorb about half of all political ad dollars. Campaigns value CTV for its precise audience targeting, yet they continue to rely on the broad reach and brand safety of traditional broadcast. In response, station groups are expanding their digital and streaming capabilities, integrating addressable ad tech to capture CTV spend while preserving their linear inventory. This dual‑strategy underscores the industry's pivot toward a hybrid model that leverages both legacy and emerging platforms.

For broadcasters, the surge in political spend offers a timely revenue boost as core advertising demand softens. Sinclair, with 26 swing‑state outlets, and Nexstar and Gray, each with 23, are positioned to dominate the market. Early earnings reports already show $25‑30 million in political ad sales for Q1 2026 across these groups. Looking ahead, S&P projects local political TV revenue climbing toward $5.27 billion by the 2036 presidential cycle, suggesting that political advertising will remain a pivotal growth engine for broadcast media in the coming decade.