What Oscar History Predicts for This Year's Best Picture Nominees
•February 11, 2026
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Why It Matters
Understanding these historical patterns helps studios craft award‑season strategies, potentially boosting box‑office returns and streaming viewership. It also signals to investors which films are likely to garner prestige and ancillary revenue.
Key Takeaways
- •Genre‑fluid films rarely win Best Picture
- •Social commentary boosts Oscar odds
- •Past winners set thematic benchmarks for nominees
- •International films still face Oscar barriers
- •Marketing aligns with historic Oscar narratives
Pulse Analysis
Oscar voters often gravitate toward familiar narratives, making historical comparison a valuable forecasting tool. Over the past three decades, Best Picture winners have shared distinct traits—whether it’s the lyrical fantasy of "The Shape of Water," the sharp social critique of "Parasite," or the underdog perseverance of "Rocky." By cataloguing these recurring elements, analysts can identify which contemporary nominees align with proven formulas, offering a data‑driven edge in an otherwise subjective voting process.
This year’s lineup showcases several clear lineage connections. "Frankenstein" channels the aquatic romance and outsider empathy that defined del Toro’s 2018 triumph, while "Sinners" blends horror, comedy, and racial commentary reminiscent of Bong Joon‑ho’s "Parasite." "Bugonia" and "Sentimental Value" echo the psychological tension of "The Silence of the Lambs" and the meta‑performative anxiety of "Birdman," respectively. Even "F1" taps the classic underdog arc that propelled "Rocky" to victory. Such thematic echoes often sway Academy members who value both innovation and recognizable storytelling archetypes.
For studios, these insights translate into targeted awards campaigns, strategic release windows, and tailored marketing narratives that highlight a film’s historical pedigree. Aligning promotional materials with past winners can amplify buzz, attract critical attention, and ultimately drive higher box‑office and streaming revenues. Investors watch these patterns closely, as Oscar recognition frequently triggers secondary market gains, from increased licensing deals to elevated talent valuation. In a competitive awards season, leveraging Oscar history isn’t just scholarly—it’s a commercial imperative.
What Oscar history predicts for this year's best picture nominees
Illustration: Illustration by Kyle Hilton / For The Times
While everyone else is prognosticating about the likely winners of the Academy Awards, we at The Envelope like to take a moment to use the past to help predict the future. Comparing this year’s best picture nominees with previous winners as a way to assess their chances has stood us in good stead before, so once again let’s turn to Oscar history to calculate the odds for this year’s crop of hopefuls.
‘Frankenstein’
Image: “Frankenstein” / “The Shape of Water” (Netflix; Fox Searchlight Picture)
We don’t have to reach far back, or far afield, for this one. Guillermo del Toro’s film calls to mind his own 2018 winner, The Shape of Water. Misunderstood and strangely beautiful creature? Check. Beloved by a soulful, pure‑hearted woman? Check. Chased by the true monster of the story? Checkmate.
‘Sinners’
Image: “Sinners” / “Parasite” (Warner Bros. Pictures; NEON)
Writer‑director‑producer Ryan Coogler gave his film the cheekily apt descriptor “genre‑fluid.” But the academy has never given genre films much respect. So this mash‑up involving music, romance, Jim Crow‑era racists and vampires makes Sinners, with its record‑breaking 16 nominations, a bit of an outlier—until one recalls 2020’s winner Parasite, with its similarly bold mix of dark comedy, thriller and horror. Both use their platforms for brilliant social commentary. Parasite may not boast the supernatural elements of Sinners, but it does end up with the characters destroying just about everyone in their path, including each other, in the goriest ways.
‘Bugonia’
Image: “Bugonia” / “The Silence of the Lambs” (Focus Features; Orion Pictures)
Another combo platter of a film, Bugonia has few compatriots. But it shares a number of unusual qualities with 1992 winner The Silence of the Lambs: psychological horror, power games, a torture basement, an unexpectedly resilient female lead (Emma Stone in the former, Jodie Foster in the latter), and a bracing amount of bizarro humor.
‘Sentimental Value’
Image: “Sentimental Value” / “Birdman” (Neon; Fox Searchlight Pictures)
In the Norwegian film, the emotionally fragile actor Nora (Renate Reinsve) fights almost every attempt from her famous estranged father (Stellan Skarsgård) to reconcile and work together on his film. The tenuous relationship bears a resemblance to Birdman, 2015’s winner, as a self‑absorbed actor (Michael Keaton) sets out to write, direct and star in his own stage production, with his troubled daughter (Stone) by his side. Issues of fame, family and second chances buffet both films.
‘Hamnet’
Image: “Hamnet” / “Shakespeare in Love” (Focus Features; Miramax)
The 1949 winner Hamlet would be the obvious go‑to. But Hamnet’s emphasis is on the circumstances that may have led Shakespeare to write one of the greatest plays in the Western canon. His wife, Agnes, is central to this film, and the loss of their son haunts them both in irreconcilable ways until a miracle of an ending brings them together at the Globe theater. Though a lighter film, 1999 winner Shakespeare in Love treads the same boards, imagining a young, struggling Will and the woman who spurs him to greatness. With both films, art transforms grief into something everlasting.
‘Marty Supreme’
Image: “Marty Supreme” / “Anora” (A24; Neon)
A striver in New York’s underbelly, Marty (Timothée Chalamet) goes through a frantic “Perils of Pauline”‑like journey in order to get what he so desperately wants, not unlike Ani (Mikey Madison), the star of last year’s winner Anora. And while neither Marty nor Ani win their intended goal, they both end up weeping cathartic tears.
‘One Battle After Another’
Image: “One Battle After Another” / “The French Connection” (Warner Bros. Pictures; 20th Century)
Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest may have the best car‑chase sequence since 1972 winner The French Connection. The action films are likewise both packed with paranoia and betrayal. Brutal, racist, obsessive detective Popeye Doyle (Gene Hackman) and brutal, racist, obsessive Colonel Lockjaw (Sean Penn) could be BFFs. Then why not throw in a dash of 2023’s winner Everything Everywhere All At Once, for its wild plot convolutions? At the center of both insane universes is the overwhelming love of a parent for a child.
‘The Secret Agent’
Image: “The Secret Agent” / “I’m Still Here” (mk2 Films; Sony Pictures Classic)
Given the relative dearth of non‑English‑language best‑picture winners over the years, we dip into the international film category here, with last year’s winner I’m Still Here, starring another Brazilian great, Fernanda Torres. She, like The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, won the Golden Globe for best performance; both were nominated for Oscars for their roles. Both films were nominated for picture as well as international feature. Both address the consequences of Brazil’s murderous 21‑year military dictatorship. In two neat filmic twists, Torres’ character was played by her own mother (Fernanda Montenegro) in that film’s coda, while Moura played his own character’s son.
‘Train Dreams’
Image: “Train Dreams” / “Nomadland” (Netflix; Searchlight Pictures)
A quiet man (Joel Edgerton) is savaged by life’s cruelties, losing himself in a reverie of haunted sorrow before reaching something close to redemption by looking to the Earth — and a few caring people. The film’s themes call up the spare 2021 winner Nomadland, where another widowed character (Frances McDormand), who has also lost her home, turns from the “civilized” world to find her way.
‘F1’
Image: “F1” / “Rocky” (Warner Bros. Pictures; Apple)
The movie centers on Sonny Hayes (Brad Pitt), an itinerant racer for hire and, according to one brutal assessment, a “never‑was.” Rocky, the surprise winner in 1977, stars Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa, a boxer who gets a chance to go up against the world champion. Carl Weathers is Rocky’s opponent, just as Damson Idris is Sonny’s (at first), but each film ends with admiration on all sides. Throw in the love of a good woman, an old‑school workout program, and a belief in miracles, and these two will manage to go the distance.
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