Guatemala Coffee Report: Production Up as Arabica Plantings Mature

Key Takeaways

• Production forecast 3.26 million bags, 3.3% increase YoY
• Export forecast 3.2 million bags, 7.4% rise, US 42% share
• Rust‑tolerant hybrids cover one‑third of arabica farms
• Leaf rust affected 20% of trees early 2024/25 season
• Fertilizer costs rise as oil prices up 20% in March 2026

Pulse Analysis

Guatemala’s coffee sector is entering a modest expansion phase as the USDA‑FAS forecasts a 3.3% rise in green‑bean output for 2026/27. The increase stems from a 2% expansion in harvested area and the maturation of arabica trees planted during the early‑2020s renovation drive. About one‑third of the country’s arabica acreage now features rust‑tolerant hybrids, which have helped stabilize yields at roughly 9.45 bags per hectare despite variable weather. This growth reinforces Guatemala’s status as a premier arabica source for specialty roasters worldwide.

Export momentum mirrors the production uptick, with shipments projected at 3.2 million bags—up 7.4% from the previous year. The United States remains the dominant destination, accounting for 42% of total exports, followed by Japan and European markets. Average export prices stayed above $300 per 60‑kg bag, pushing total export value past $1.28 billion. The stronger export outlook supports the country’s trade balance and offers U.S. coffee buyers a reliable supply of high‑quality hard‑bean arabica, a critical input for premium blends.

Nevertheless, the sector faces headwinds. Leaf‑rust incidence reached 20% of trees early in the 2024/25 season, and the invasive borer Xylosandrus compactus has begun affecting robusta plots. Coupled with a 20% rise in oil prices that has driven up fertilizer and chemical costs, producers may see tighter margins unless price premiums continue. Stakeholders are watching weather patterns and disease management strategies closely, as any deterioration could ripple through global coffee pricing and supply chains.