Dear Marketers: There’s No ‘Average’ Grocery Shopper Today

Why It Matters

Misaligned media allocations erode ROI for CPG and F&B brands, while correctly targeting each shopper type can unlock higher sales and more efficient spend in a rapidly fragmenting grocery market.

Key Takeaways

• Social-first shoppers respond best to user‑generated content and impulse cues.
• TV‑first shoppers shrink, yet brands still overallocate linear TV spend.
• Streaming‑first shoppers drive premium purchases but receive underfunded CTV budgets.
• Measuring social ads by click‑to‑purchase undervalues in‑store lift.
• Aligning channel strategy with shopper type boosts ROI for F&B brands.

Pulse Analysis

The grocery landscape is no longer governed by a single, average consumer. Millennials and Gen Z have migrated to social feeds for discovery, while older cohorts still tune into broadcast TV, and a growing middle segment consumes content on connected‑TV platforms. This fragmentation forces marketers to rethink the traditional one‑size‑fits‑all media plan that has dominated the industry for decades. Understanding where each shopper lives—whether scrolling Instagram, watching a streaming series, or flipping on the TV—sets the foundation for any effective 2026 strategy.

Schaefer’s three‑segment framework highlights concrete mismatches in current spend. Brands continue to pour money into linear TV even as TV‑first shoppers age out of peak grocery spending, resulting in diminishing returns. Conversely, streaming‑first shoppers—who are more affluent and increasingly influence premium product purchases—receive a fraction of the budget despite clear evidence of higher conversion potential through CTV ads. Social‑first shoppers, the most impulsive group, are often evaluated on click‑through metrics that ignore the lag between online engagement and the eventual store visit, leading to chronic underinvestment in this high‑velocity channel.

To capitalize on these insights, marketers should reallocate budgets to match shopper behavior, adopt creative assets tailored to each platform, and shift measurement to in‑store lift and sales uplift rather than pure digital clicks. Investing in CTV for streaming‑first audiences and amplifying user‑generated content for social‑first shoppers can drive measurable lift. As the grocery sector heads toward a $452 billion online sales horizon by 2028, brands that align media spend with shopper realities will secure a competitive edge and stronger ROI.