Fish Oil, Fishmeal Production Down in March Ahead of Lower Peru TAC

Why It Matters

The slump in fishmeal and fish oil tightens supply for aquaculture feeds, risking higher prices and lower profitability, while Peru’s lower anchovy catch underscores sustainability pressures that could reshape the global fishmeal market.

Key Takeaways

• Fishmeal production fell 38% in March 2026 YoY
• Q1 2026 fish oil output dropped 12% versus 2025
• Peru cut anchovy TAC to 1.9 M MT, down >1 M MT
• Peru temporarily halted anchovy fishery April 24–May 3 for spawning
• IFFO warns high aquafeed inventories could curb Q3 ingredient demand

Pulse Analysis

The marine ingredients sector is a linchpin of modern aquaculture, supplying the protein‑rich fishmeal and oil that underpin farmed‑fish growth. A 38% plunge in fishmeal output for March and a 28% Q1 decline signal a sharp contraction in global supply, driven largely by reduced catches in South America and Europe. While Denmark, Norway and Spain have kept fish oil production relatively resilient, the overall dip erodes the buffer that processors rely on to meet the soaring demand from fast‑growing aquafeed markets.

Peru’s anchovy fishery, responsible for up to one‑fifth of worldwide fishmeal, has taken a decisive turn. The government slashed the total allowable catch to 1.9 million metric tons—more than a million tons less than the 2025 quota—and imposed a brief closure from April 24 to May 3 to protect spawning stocks. This precautionary move, while safeguarding long‑term resource health, immediately removes a substantial volume of raw material from the market, amplifying price pressure for downstream feed manufacturers and potentially nudging producers toward alternative protein sources.

Looking ahead, the sector faces a double‑edged challenge. China, the largest consumer of fishmeal, has not experienced its typical early‑year fishing rebound, and elevated aquafeed inventories could depress restocking rates and farm‑gate prices. IFFO’s warning that third‑quarter feed‑ingredient demand may falter underscores the risk of a prolonged supply glut. Stakeholders will need to balance inventory management, price volatility, and sustainability commitments as the industry navigates these intertwined supply‑demand dynamics.