IWSR: 2035 Will Be ‘Vastly Different’ for the Global Drinks Sector

Why It Matters

The outlook signals a fundamental market reorientation, forcing brands to rethink product mixes and geographic focus as traditional strongholds contract and emerging economies expand consumption.

Key Takeaways

• Global alcohol volume to fall 2% annually through 2030
• RTD category projected to grow 17% over the next decade
• India expected to overtake US in servings by 2032
• Wine volumes forecast to drop 14% while spirits fall only 2%
• Legal‑drinking‑age population to rise 9%, offsetting per‑capita decline

Pulse Analysis

The International Wine & Spirits Research (IWSR) has released its first ten‑year outlook, showing global alcoholic‑drink volumes slipping for six straight years before stabilising near 2025 levels by 2035. A 2% cumulative decline is expected through 2030, driven by moderation, higher health consciousness, and tighter economic conditions. Yet the forecast notes a slowing rate of decline and a modest rebound as the legal‑drinking‑age population expands. The overall picture suggests a market in transition rather than collapse, with producers needing to adapt product portfolios to a more restrained consumer base.

The data highlights a pronounced geographic rebalancing. Consumption in traditional powerhouses—China, the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom—is projected to fall between 13% and 19% in servings by 2035. Conversely, emerging markets such as India, Vietnam, Colombia and Mexico are set to post double‑digit growth, with India’s servings expected to surpass the United States by 2032 and become the world’s second‑largest market after China. This shift reflects rising disposable incomes, younger demographics and expanding on‑premise channels in the Global South, reshaping where future sales will be generated.

Category dynamics reinforce the need for innovation. Global beer and wine volumes are slated to shrink 1% and 14% respectively, while spirits see a modest 2% dip, allowing spirits to overtake wine for the first time since 1990. The ready‑to‑drink (RTD) segment stands out, with a 17% volume lift projected for the decade and 1 billion 9‑litre cases already recorded in 2025. Non‑alcoholic beer, Indian whiskey and stout also register double‑digit gains. Companies that cling to legacy categories risk losing relevance; agile brands must prioritize flavour variety, lower ABV options and convenience to capture the evolving palate.