Easier Access to GLP-1s Sends Usage Far Beyond Original Predictions

Why It Matters

The expanded GLP‑1 user base pressures food and beverage companies to adapt product portfolios, while investors reassess the outlook for traditional center‑store food stocks.

Key Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley now expects 55 million US GLP‑1 users by 2035
• Medicare coverage and oral pills drive the usage surge
• Projected calorie intake falls 1.6% despite higher discontinuation rates
• 68% of users cut meals/snacks; 44% shrink portion sizes
• Food and beverage firms face pressure to expand zero‑calorie offerings

Pulse Analysis

The latest Morgan Stanley projection reflects a turning point for GLP‑1 therapies, which were once limited to injectable weight‑loss drugs. Medicare’s decision to cover these medications and the rollout of oral versions have lowered barriers for a broader demographic, pushing the potential user pool to 55 million by 2035. This expansion reshapes the health‑care market, signaling that once‑niche treatments are becoming mainstream tools for weight management and metabolic health.

Even with a larger user base, the net impact on national calorie consumption remains modest. Morgan Stanley’s calorie model still predicts a 1.6% drop by 2035, largely because real‑world data reveal lower treatment persistence and some weight regain after discontinuation. Nevertheless, half of surveyed users report cutting their intake by 20% or more, primarily by reducing the number of meals or snacks (68%) or by trimming portion sizes (44%). These behavioral shifts illustrate how GLP‑1 drugs influence eating patterns without completely overhauling dietary habits.

For food and beverage manufacturers, the growing prevalence of GLP‑1 users represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Companies face sustained pressure to innovate low‑ or zero‑calorie products, especially in carbonated soft drinks and energy beverages, to retain market share. Investors are consequently skeptical of traditional center‑store food stocks, viewing them as vulnerable to the health‑and‑wellness wave driven by GLP‑1 adoption. Firms that pivot quickly toward healthier, lower‑calorie offerings may capture new growth, while laggards risk valuation declines as consumer preferences evolve.