Bending the Cost Curve: Understanding the GLP-1 Era | Global Conference 2025

Why It Matters

Broad adoption of GLP‑1 therapies can lower chronic disease costs and boost workforce productivity, making them a strategic investment for employers and insurers.

Key Takeaways

• GLP‑1 drugs improve health but initially raise employer costs.
• Long‑term adherence cuts cardiovascular, osteoporosis, and overall expenses.
• Employer data shows 139k adherent users achieve 40‑44% health gains.
• Accessibility and stigma hinder broader adoption among vulnerable populations.
• Competition and pill formulations expected to halve GLP‑1 prices within five years.

Summary

The panel at Global Conference 2025 tackled the emerging GLP‑1 era, focusing on how these highly effective obesity treatments are reshaping employer‑sponsored health benefits and overall cost structures. Speakers from AON, MIT Sloan, and Merrick Ventures examined the paradox of soaring drug prices versus long‑term health gains, and debated who should bear the financial burden. Data from AON’s 50‑million‑employee database revealed 139,000 adherent GLP‑1 users matched against an equal control group. While drug expenses spike in the first year, the second year shows a pronounced bend in the cost curve, with 40‑44% reductions in cardiovascular events, osteoporosis, and related conditions, delivering a measurable return on investment over time. Lisa Stevens highlighted the adherence challenge, noting that half of users drop off within 90 days, often due to cost or side effects. Michael Pharaoh’s EMED program in the UK demonstrated that low‑cost, 24‑hour tele‑health support can achieve 98% retention, underscoring the importance of accessibility and stigma reduction. Simon Johnson reminded the audience that health improvements historically boost productivity and societal welfare. The discussion concluded that employers, insurers, and policymakers must collaborate to expand coverage, drive down prices through competition and pill formulations, and embed GLP‑1 therapy into holistic benefit packages. As prices are projected to halve within five years, the long‑term savings from reduced chronic disease burden could offset current expenditures, reshaping the economics of obesity treatment.

Original Description

Find all Global Conference 2025 Panels: https://milkeninstitute.org/events/global-conference-2025/program

The troubling rise in obesity over the past several decades has been linked with other negative health outcomes including diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain cancers. In addition to the human toll, these conditions also create significant economic burdens, contributing to higher health care costs and reduced productivity. By 2035, the global economic impact of obesity could exceed $4 trillion. Yet momentum is building to reverse these trends. Breakthrough treatments such as GLP-1 receptor agonists are expanding the frontiers of care, while renewed cross-sector investments are targeting both scientific innovation and root causes. In this session, experts will explore the evolving economics of obesity care and the timely interventions needed to bend both health and cost curves.

Josh Barro

Writer and Podcast Host

Michael Ferro

Chairman and CEO, Merrick Ventures

Simon Johnson

Professor of Entrepreneurship, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Recipient, Nobel Prize in Economics

Lisa Stevens

Chief Administrative Officer, Aon