Restaurants in 2026: Labor, Tech, and Service Trends to Watch

Why It Matters

Understanding these trends helps investors and operators anticipate profit‑margin pressures and the policy levers that could reshape staffing and cost structures in the restaurant sector.

Key Takeaways

• Profit margins squeezed by rising labor and food costs
• Immigration reform seen as critical to staffing pipeline
• Technology adoption focused on augmenting staff efficiency
• Off‑premise sales growth plateaued after pandemic surge
• Credit Card Competition Act could lower transaction fees

Pulse Analysis

The 2026 outlook for U.S. restaurants reflects a blend of resilience and caution. While consumer demand remains solid, operators face tighter profit margins as wages climb and food prices surge due to lingering supply‑chain constraints and tariff impacts. This cost environment forces restaurateurs to scrutinize every expense line, from ingredient sourcing to energy usage, prompting a renewed focus on operational efficiency and price optimization.

Labor remains the sector’s most pressing challenge. With the pandemic‑induced talent shortage deepening, the industry is lobbying for comprehensive immigration reform to broaden the pool of eligible workers. Simultaneously, technology is being positioned as a force multiplier rather than a replacement, with AI‑driven scheduling, contactless ordering, and kitchen automation aimed at boosting productivity while preserving the human touch that defines hospitality.

Off‑premise dining, which exploded during COVID‑19, has now leveled off, signaling a shift back toward in‑house experiences. Restaurants are recalibrating their delivery and curb‑side models to align with stabilized demand. Legislative priorities such as the Credit Card Competition Act promise lower transaction fees, potentially improving net margins. Together, these dynamics suggest that success in 2026 will hinge on balancing cost control, strategic tech adoption, and proactive engagement with evolving regulatory frameworks.

Original Description

In this episode of Take-Away with Sam Oches, Sam talks with Michelle Korsmo, president and CEO of the National Restaurant Association, an organization that represents hundreds of thousands of restaurants at all levels of government. The association issues an annual State of the Industry report every year with in-depth research on how restaurants performed in the prior year, how things are expected to go in the year ahead, and how operators are feeling about the trends affecting their business. That report just came out a couple weeks ago and Michelle joined the podcast to dive into the data and talk specifically about the economy, workforce trends, and how technology is reshaping the restaurant operation. They also talked about the association’s three biggest legislative priorities today: immigration reform, the credit card competition act, and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

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00:00 2026 Restaurant Outlook: Cautious Optimism

01:59 Industry Profitability & Cost Pressures

06:13 Workforce Strategy, Immigration & Tech

24:18 Food Costs, Tariffs & Supply Chain

28:28 Off-Premise Growth & Stabilization

33:37 Takeaway #1: Fix Profitability with Workforce + Efficiency

35:18 Takeaway #2: The Labor Crisis Is Getting Bigger

36:31 Takeaway #3: Tech Should Support — Not Replace — Workers

37:58 Takeaway #4: Off-Premise Has Stabilized

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