The Fight for Control of Online Travel Has Started

Why It Matters

Booking’s ability to offset war‑related losses with U.S. share gains and a robust loyalty program signals a shifting balance of power in online travel, pressuring rivals to innovate or lose ground.

Key Takeaways

• Booking Holdings lost ~6 million room nights due to Iran war.
• US market share gains likely come at Expedia’s expense.
• Genius loyalty tiers now drive over 30% of active users.
• Alternative‑accommodation listings now represent 38% of total bookings.
• AI and connected‑trip strategy aim to outpace Expedia’s growth.

Summary

The Skiff Travel podcast dissected Booking Holdings’ Q1 2026 earnings, highlighting a war‑driven shortfall of roughly six million room nights – an estimated $1.25 billion in gross bookings – as the headline figure. The discussion also covered Capital One’s acquisition of Hopper, Expedia’s new CFO, and broader OTA dynamics, but the focus remained on Booking’s performance amid geopolitical turbulence.

Booking reported 6% year‑over‑year room‑night growth, two points shy of the 8% it projected without the Iran conflict. Despite the dip, the company noted a notable gain in U.S. market share, likely cannibalizing Expedia’s base. Its Genius loyalty program now accounts for over 30% of active members and 50% of room‑night volume, mirroring hotel‑chain loyalty impact. Alternative‑accommodation listings rose to 38% of total bookings, outpacing Airbnb’s growth in the segment.

A key quote from the earnings call: “Level‑2 and Level‑3 Genius members represented over 30% of our active base and delivered a 50% share of room nights.” Executives also emphasized AI’s role in delivering a “connected trip” across flights, hotels, and attractions, positioning technology as a differentiator against Expedia’s fragmented loyalty approach.

The implications are clear: Booking’s single‑brand, loyalty‑driven strategy is beginning to erode Expedia’s dominance, especially in the U.S., while diversification into flights, attractions, and AI‑enhanced experiences could cement its lead. Competitors must accelerate loyalty integration and AI adoption or risk further market share loss.

Original Description

Online travel agencies still dominate how people book travel. But that dominance is starting to face pressure from multiple directions at once.

In this episode of the Skift Travel Podcast, Seth Borko is joined by Dennis Schaal to break down a week that touches nearly every corner of the online travel ecosystem. The conversation starts with Booking Holdings’ latest earnings, where the company revealed just how much geopolitical disruption can impact demand, including an estimated loss of millions of room nights tied to the war in Iran.

From there, the discussion moves into a deeper look at competition and strategy. Booking continues to gain share in the U.S. while expanding its connected trip offering across hotels, flights, and alternative accommodations. At the same time, Expedia is navigating leadership changes, and new developments in B2B travel raise questions about whether parts of the industry are starting to look more like infrastructure than consumer brands.

The episode also explores Capital One’s move to bring travel technology in-house by acquiring key assets from Hopper, a shift that could reshape how banks and financial platforms compete in travel distribution. That leads into a broader conversation about whether online travel agencies risk becoming commoditized in a world where AI changes how travelers discover and book trips.

Despite all of this, the data still shows that online travel agencies remain the most widely used booking channel globally. The question is not whether they matter today, but how their role evolves as new technologies, new entrants, and changing consumer behavior begin to reshape the landscape.

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00:00 Six Million Room Nights

01:05 Meet Dennis Schaal

02:42 Booking Earnings Breakdown

05:26 US Share Gains

06:23 Brand Strategy Debate

08:35 Genius Loyalty Power

10:20 Airbnb Loyalty Questions

13:02 Connected Trip Expansion

15:58 Glen Fogel Insight

17:03 AI Disruption Debate

19:44 OTA Marketing Arbitrage

21:38 Skift Path to Purchase

22:41 Search Phase Shift

22:57 AI Enters Decision

24:08 Trust and Intermediaries

25:16 Customer Service Reality

27:29 Capital One Buys Hopper Tech

28:50 Hopper and B2B Arms Race

31:14 B2B OTAs vs GDS

33:26 Expedia CFO Shakeup

36:29 Airbnb Services Debate

40:04 OTAs Still Dominate Booking

43:44 Winners Losers and Lessons