AI Connected to Slightly More Hiring, but Growth Favors Older Workers with Less Exposure

Why It Matters

The findings reveal that AI adoption may widen the experience gap in the labor market, reshaping hiring strategies for small firms and influencing policy on workforce development.

Key Takeaways

• AI exposure boosts small‑biz revenue by ~2.2% per 10 points
• Hiring rises 1.6% after AI‑exposed work increase
• Growth concentrates on older, experienced employees
• Young workers in AI‑heavy roles see headcount decline
• Highly AI‑exposed occupations added only 3.4% jobs

Pulse Analysis

AI adoption is becoming a measurable driver of productivity for small and medium‑size enterprises. Gusto’s analysis, which scores each role on its susceptibility to automation, shows that firms with higher AI exposure enjoy a 2.2% monthly revenue lift six months later. This uplift reflects faster task execution, better customer service, and the ability to scale services without proportionate cost increases. The methodology, rooted in research from OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania, provides a granular view of how AI tools integrate into everyday workflows, moving the conversation beyond speculative hype to concrete financial outcomes.

The hiring signal, however, is nuanced. While overall headcount rose 1.6% in AI‑rich environments, the composition of that growth tilted toward seasoned employees who can blend judgment with machine assistance. Entry‑level talent, particularly those under 30 in roles like copywriting, accounting, and customer support, saw declining numbers. This pattern suggests that AI is automating routine tasks traditionally filled by junior staff, prompting employers to prioritize workers who can manage, interpret, and augment AI outputs. The result is a widening skill premium and a potential bottleneck for younger professionals seeking their first foothold.

For business leaders, the data underscores the need for strategic talent planning. Companies should invest in upskilling programs that enable younger workers to transition from routine execution to AI‑augmented decision making. Policymakers may also consider targeted training incentives to mitigate the emerging experience gap. As AI tools become more embedded, the competitive advantage will hinge not just on technology adoption but on the ability to harmonize human expertise with algorithmic efficiency, ensuring sustainable growth across all workforce tiers.

AI connected to slightly more hiring, but growth favors older workers with less exposure

By Chris Gaetano

February 18, 2026 · 12:59 p.m. EST

Payroll data from Gusto has found that AI is having a mixed impact on hiring at small businesses. While overall those who use AI more are doing more hiring—not less—only a fraction of these gains are going to young people in their early career or those in heavily AI‑exposed professions.

According to Gusto, small businesses with more AI‑exposed workforces are seeing overall revenue and hiring gains. Gusto measured AI exposure using a method developed by researchers at OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania. Each job gets a score from 0 % to 100 % based on how much AI could speed up its core tasks. Gusto then averaged that stat across a company’s workforce to see how AI‑exposed each business is overall. A higher score doesn’t mean jobs are at risk—it simply means AI tools are relevant to the work being done.

Tracking data from 7,700 small businesses over nearly three years, Gusto found that when a business shifts toward more AI‑exposed work, revenue tends to grow. The ratio, generally, is for every 10 percentage points in AI exposure, there’s a 2.2 % monthly revenue increase six months later. In terms of hiring, Gusto found that businesses that became more AI‑exposed tended to have slightly more employees ( 1.6 %) six months later. The report said that when AI boosts productivity, some businesses may use those gains to expand—taking on more customers, adding services or reinvesting in growth. Others may reduce headcount. On average, Gusto found that expansion is more common, explaining the small positive result.

However, these job gains seem to mostly benefit older, more experienced workers in areas that are not as heavily exposed to AI. While total small‑business employment grew 9.6 % from January 2023 to November 2025, employment in highly AI‑exposed occupations (e.g., copywriters, accountants and customer‑service representatives) grew only 3.4 %. Meanwhile, since early 2023, workers ages 22‑28 in highly AI‑exposed roles have actually seen declining headcount, indicating that the slowdown is concentrated among younger, early‑career workers.

“This is consistent with other research, and suggests that as AI automates routine tasks, employers may be hiring fewer entry‑level workers and favoring experienced employees who can exercise judgment and use AI tools to create business value,” said the Gusto report.

Chris Gaetano – Technology Editor, Accounting Today