How to Plan for Disruption in an Uncertain Future of Work

In this ILO Future of Work episode, Raphael Peels explains strategic foresight as a forward‑looking methodology that maps major drivers of change, tests plausible scenarios, and uncovers structural vulnerabilities in labor markets. By combining horizon scanning, scenario development, and road‑mapping, the ILO tailors classic foresight tools to the unique realities of workers, employers, and governments, turning disruption from a surprise into a manageable variable. The conversation underscores why anticipating shocks—whether AI breakthroughs, cyber attacks, or climate events—is essential for maintaining decent work and social justice.

The discussion highlights AI’s dual role: it can ingest massive data streams, synthesize trends, and generate visual scenario prototypes, yet it cannot replace human sense‑making. This partnership enables unions and employer federations to spot weak signals early, allocate limited resources more strategically, and transform uncertainty into opportunity. Participants from New Zealand’s trade unions and Montenegro’s employers’ federation stress that traditional tools fall short in today’s rapid change, making strategic foresight a critical complement to conventional contingency planning, which only addresses single‑event responses.

Ultimately, Peels urges all stakeholders to develop a "mental muscle" for long‑term thinking—regularly gathering information, building scenario libraries, and embedding foresight into daily decision‑making. By doing so, organizations can better navigate AI‑driven disruptions, climate shocks, or geopolitical upheavals, ensuring resilience and proactive policy dialogue. The episode positions strategic foresight as a cornerstone for the future of work, inviting listeners to explore ILO resources and adopt a systematic, creative approach to uncertainty.