PV Insurance Market Can Expect Further ‘Significant Claims’ as Middle East Conflict Persists: Selwyn, Antares

Key Takeaways

• Antares underwriter warns of rising PV claims from Gulf states.
• Policies written before Feb 28 stay on risk despite escalating conflict.
• Kuwait airport attack could trigger denial‑of‑access and business interruption claims.
• Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for insurers.
• Higher premiums may not offset potential loss magnitude.

Pulse Analysis

The Middle East’s renewed military exchanges have thrust political‑violence (PV) insurance into the spotlight. After the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the region’s volatility surged, culminating in a high‑profile attack on Kuwait International Airport. Such incidents underscore how quickly commercial operations can be disrupted, prompting insurers to reassess the likelihood of claims that extend beyond traditional property damage to include denial‑of‑access and loss‑of‑attraction coverage. For underwriters, the challenge lies in quantifying risk in an environment where diplomatic signals are mixed and cease‑fire prospects remain distant.

A substantial portion of PV business was underwritten before the February 28 escalation, meaning those policies are still active despite the heightened threat landscape. Gulf‑state exposures are particularly acute, as many insureds operate critical infrastructure and logistics hubs that could be directly impacted by further strikes. The Kuwait airport incident illustrates the cascading effect of a single event, potentially triggering business‑interruption losses across airlines, terminal retailers, and ancillary services. Insurers are responding by raising rates and tightening underwriting terms, yet the sheer scale of potential losses—spanning property damage, business interruption, and newer extensions like loss‑of‑attraction—may outpace premium gains.

For the broader specialty market, the conflict raises questions about capital adequacy and reinsurance capacity. Persistent threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, could amplify systemic risk, prompting reinsurers to demand higher collateral and more granular risk modeling. Insurers are therefore urged to enhance real‑time monitoring, diversify geographic exposure, and consider retroactive coverage exclusions where feasible. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, firms that proactively manage PV exposure will be better positioned to protect their balance sheets and maintain underwriting discipline amid an unpredictable Middle East environment.