The Reinsurance Podcast
Steve Bowen: Avoid Pricing Risk for Yesterday’s Climate | TRP #161
The Reinsurance Podcast
•February 17, 2026•30 min
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The Reinsurance Podcast•Feb 17, 2026
Why It Matters
As climate change accelerates, traditional actuarial approaches risk underestimating future losses, potentially jeopardizing solvency and market stability. Understanding and pricing this evolving risk is crucial for insurers, reinsurers, and policymakers to ensure adequate capital reserves and effective public‑private risk transfer mechanisms.
Key Takeaways
- •2025 saw $129B insurance losses, new normal emerging.
- •AI models complement, not replace, physics-based weather forecasts.
- •Gallagher report emphasizes business-focused climate risk insights, not just data.
- •Multi‑model ensemble approach needed for uncertain future climate scenarios.
Pulse Analysis
In this episode, Steve Bowen, a former meteorologist turned reinsurance professional, explains how scientific talent is reshaping the industry. He highlights Gallagher's new report, which moves beyond raw loss numbers to connect 2025’s $129 billion catastrophe tally with real‑world business decisions. The discussion underscores a "new normal" of higher, more volatile loss years and the need for insurers to embed climate‑risk awareness into underwriting, pricing, and sustainability strategies.
Bowen delves into the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence in weather and catastrophe modeling. He clarifies that AI tools augment, rather than replace, traditional physics‑based numerical models, offering alternative perspectives that improve lead time and accuracy. By employing ensemble approaches—blending AI outputs with conventional forecasts—insurers can capture uncertainty, spot emerging trends, and refine pricing models for hurricanes, wildfires, and severe thunderstorms.
Finally, the conversation stresses that climate risk is non‑linear and that historical data alone no longer suffices. Bowen advocates for scenario‑driven analysis that projects tail events beyond the typical 5‑10‑year horizon, accounting for hotter temperatures, intensified storms, and shifting hazard footprints. This forward‑looking mindset drives changes in coverage structures, deductible levels, and capital allocation, positioning the reinsurance sector to manage surprise events more proactively and sustain profitability in an increasingly volatile climate landscape.
Episode Description
Steve Bowen of Gallagher Re explains why climate risk is non-linear, why historical data can mislead, and how cedents and reinsurers should rethink modelling, capital, and pricing before renewals.EPISODE LINKS:Steve's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stevebowenwx/Gallagher Re: https://www.ajg.com/gallagherre/
Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report 2025: https://www.ajg.com/gallagherre/news-and-insights/gallagherre-natural-catastrophe-and-climate-report-2025/CONNECT WITH US:
Say Hello: [email protected]
Website: https://www.supercede.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehq
X: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQ
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQ
RSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss
OUTLINE & TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(03:10) Gallagher’s Climate & Catastrophe Report(04:53) 2025 Catastrophe Recap(07:00) Headline Losses vs Deeper Market Signals(09:53) Lessons Since 2005(11:01) AI in Cat Modelling(14:30) Never Fall in Love with One Model(17:07) Rethinking Tail Events(19:44) SCS, Aggregates & the January 1 Renewal Shift(23:34) Capital, Insurability & the Public–Private Balance(27:36) Final Thoughts for 2026 (29:58) Outro
Show Notes
Steve Bowen of Gallagher Re explains why climate risk is non-linear, why historical data can mislead, and how cedents and reinsurers should rethink modelling, capital, and pricing before renewals.EPISODE LINKS:Steve's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stevebowenwx/Gallagher Re: https://www.ajg.com/gallagherre/
Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report 2025: https://www.ajg.com/gallagherre/news-and-insights/gallagherre-natural-catastrophe-and-climate-report-2025/CONNECT WITH US:
Say Hello: [email protected]
Website: https://www.supercede.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehq
X: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQ
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQ
RSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss
OUTLINE & TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(03:10) Gallagher’s Climate & Catastrophe Report(04:53) 2025 Catastrophe Recap(07:00) Headline Losses vs Deeper Market Signals(09:53) Lessons Since 2005(11:01) AI in Cat Modelling(14:30) Never Fall in Love with One Model(17:07) Rethinking Tail Events(19:44) SCS, Aggregates & the January 1 Renewal Shift(23:34) Capital, Insurability & the Public–Private Balance(27:36) Final Thoughts for 2026 (29:58) Outro
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