Goldman’s Freund Sees Early Signs of Australia M&A Rebound

Why It Matters

A revival in Australian mergers and acquisitions could unlock capital for domestic firms and attract foreign investors, reshaping the region’s deal landscape. Early momentum suggests a shift from defensive postures to growth‑oriented strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Goldman’s M&A head flags early Australian deal recovery
• Deal flow lagged behind US and Asia due to volatility
• Inflation, rates, and geopolitics remain primary deal inhibitors
• Goldman expects M&A volumes to rise in H2 2026
• Australian corporate confidence improving, fueling potential cross‑border deals

Pulse Analysis

Australia’s M&A market has endured a multi‑year downturn, with transaction volumes falling sharply after 2022. Persistent macro‑economic headwinds—particularly volatile equity markets, stubborn inflation, and a tightening monetary stance—have dampened corporate appetite for large‑scale deals. Geopolitical tensions in the Indo‑Pacific further constrained cross‑border activity, leaving Australian firms more cautious than peers in the United States and East Asia. This environment has forced many companies to prioritize balance‑sheet preservation over expansion, slowing the pipeline of strategic acquisitions.

At a Bloomberg New Voices forum, Marissa Freund, Goldman Sachs’ head of M&A for Australia and New Zealand, signaled that the tide may be turning. While she stopped short of quantifying a full recovery, Freund noted an uptick in deal negotiations and a modest increase in mid‑size transaction announcements in the second quarter of 2026. Sectors such as renewable energy, technology services, and health care are emerging as early beneficiaries, driven by government incentives and a renewed focus on sustainability. Goldman’s internal pipeline suggests that deal volume could climb 15‑20% in the latter half of the year, provided interest‑rate pressures ease and market sentiment stabilizes.

For investors and corporate strategists, the potential resurgence offers both opportunities and risks. A revitalized M&A environment may boost valuations for target companies, especially those with strong ESG credentials or niche technology assets. However, lingering uncertainty around inflation and global supply‑chain disruptions means that due diligence will remain rigorous. Cross‑border interest from Asian sovereign funds and U.S. private equity firms could accelerate, positioning Australia as a strategic hub for growth capital in the Asia‑Pacific region. Stakeholders should monitor policy shifts, financing conditions, and sector‑specific catalysts to gauge the durability of this early rebound.