SpaceX IPO Update: Google, Cursor, Other Valuations, Modeling Process, and AI Tools

Why It Matters

Understanding the true impact of SpaceX’s new AI and Kuiper deals helps investors gauge whether the IPO’s sky‑high valuation is justified, informing capital allocation decisions in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX shares trade above $200, valuing over $2.5 trillion
• Google compute deal could add roughly $50 billion valuation
• Kuiper acquisition may boost AI revenue but net adds $50 billion
• Valuation models vary widely; author’s range $1.65‑$1.1 trillion for SpaceX
• AI tools aid research, not full Excel model creation

Summary

The video updates the recent SpaceX IPO, noting that the stock now trades above $200 per share, pushing the market cap past $2.5 trillion. The host walks through recent deals—Google’s compute‑rental agreement and the Kuiper acquisition—showing how each could lift the valuation by roughly $50 billion, though the overall overvaluation remains in the trillion‑dollar range. Key data points include SpaceX’s price‑to‑revenue multiples (over 131× trailing, 74× forward) and the author’s own valuation range of $1.65‑$1.1 trillion, contrasted with Morningstar’s $780 billion and Demotoran’s 2× revenue estimate. The analysis highlights assumptions around Starlink subscriber pricing, commercial fleet contracts, and market‑penetration caps drawn from telecom peers. Notable quotes: the presenter admits the Google deal “adds about $50 billion” and that the Kuiper deal’s net effect is “around $50 billion after subtracting the $60 billion purchase price.” He also stresses that AI tools like Grok are useful for data gathering but should not replace human judgment in model construction. Implications are clear: despite sizable partnership revenues, SpaceX remains dramatically overvalued by traditional metrics, and investors must scrutinize the underlying assumptions. The video also serves as a tutorial on building granular, scenario‑driven models for complex, multi‑segment firms, emphasizing disciplined sensitivity analysis over blanket optimism.

Original Description

This tutorial covers the SpaceX IPO performance since its listing on Friday, how the recent Cursor and Google deals affect the valuation, and some thoughts on other valuations and the overall modeling process for this company.

Files & Resources:

https://mergersandinquisitions.com/spacex-ipo/

Table of Contents:

0:00 Introduction

2:04 Part 1: IPO Update, Google, and Cursor

4:48 Part 2: Other Valuations: Damodaran and Morningstar

7:53 Part 3: My Modeling Process (Starting Points, Starlink)

12:33 Part 4: Process for Other Segments

13:33 Part 5: AI Usage in Modeling

15:14 Part 6: 1-Year Predictions and Uber Comparison

16:54 Recap and Summary